March 15th, 2010
Published Daily
COMMENTARY for Friday

Mood Shift, Not News, Caused Stocks to Fall

by Rick Ackerman on October 2, 2009 3:11 am GMT · 10 comments

Clueless commentators attributed yesterday’s stock-market selloff to weak manufacturing data and supposed fears over job numbers due out Friday. What poppycock! The pundits would have gotten closer to the truth if they had cited sunspots or unusual seismic activity at Yellowstone. Shares plummeted for the simple reason that they were ready to plummet. Think back to March, when this bear rally began. Since then, when have traders evinced » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Friday

An Indoo Benchmark for Today

by Rick Ackerman on October 2, 2009 6:25 am GMT · 0 comments

A Hidden Pivot at 9469 that lies 40 points below Thursday’s settlement price is the lowest target I can project for the Dow Industrials using the hourly chart. If this support is breached, however — which would  come as no great surprise to me – the Indoos would be signaling more trouble ahead. _______ UPDATE (9:22 a.m.):   One can only chuckle at the notion that 263,000 newly unemployed could have “surprised” anyone.  In reality, that figure is conjured from thin air, and U.S. unemployment is running closer to 20% if calculated the way it used to be calculated.  Ahead of Friday’s opening, DaBoyz have maneuvered stocks low enough to discount the outbreak of nuclear war, so don’t be surprised if the first hour produces a rally.  If that’s what happens, I doubt that it will last. 


Rick's Picks for Friday
$ = Actionable Advice + = Open Position
Current  Actionable  Open
All Picks By Issue:

GCZ09 – Comex December Gold (Last:1001.50)

by Rick Ackerman on October 2, 2009 4:18 am GMT

The squiggle at 1011.80 that I mentioned appears to have worked as an "external" peak , since it closely contained rally attempts during each of the last two sessions. The price peaks thereof are sufficiently developed at this point to negate the importance (and usefulness) of our knobby benchmark, so we'll revert to an earlier forecast that said gold would struggle to little avail for perhaps 7-10 days before attempting a push toward an important Hidden Pivot target at _____. We're about halfway through that period now.   ...

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ESZ09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1026.00)

by Rick Ackerman on October 2, 2009 4:45 am GMT

The Hidden Pivot support at 1025.75 given here yesterday worked well, since it caught the low of a 25-point decline within 1.25 points. Now that it has been exceeded, albeit only slightly so far, we should use a Fibonacci-based support at _____ as a minimum downside target. Alternatively, an upside thrust that surpasses _____ would hint of a bullish turn to end the week (and quarter).   ...

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USZ09 – December T-Bond Futures (Last:123^05)

by Rick Ackerman on October 2, 2009 5:45 am GMT

The futures blew past a 122^22 target, but there's another at _____ that in retrospect looks too compelling to have been overlooked (see chart).  I expect it to show tradable, and precise, stopping power; but if not, and the Hidden Pivot yields easily, the futures would be signaling more upside over the near term to _____, the highest number I can project without stretching my imagination....

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SIDE BETS for Friday

$ DIA – Diamonds Trust (Last: 94.18)

by Rick Ackerman on October 2, 2009 6:16 am GMT · 0 comments

Bid 94.71, stop 94.66, for 200 shares.  Our bid is a penny above the ‘d’ target of a sausage-y pattern, but the abc (a=99.16 on the hourly chart) is otherwise so whacky and obscure as to be mildly compelling. You’ll be on your own if the order fills. _______ UPDATE (9:13 a.m.):  The Diamonds are indicating a gap-down opening this morning near 94.18, so this trade obviously won’t work.  Cancel the order.

DXY – Dollar Index (Last: 77.15)

by Rick Ackerman on October 2, 2009 6:19 am GMT · 0 comments

DXY appears to be consolidating above a midpoint pivot at 77.11 for a push to its ‘d’ sibling, at least: 77.73.