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The apex of yesterday’s thrust fell just shy of a Hidden Pivot at 1083.00, but the futures should have little trouble getting there this morning. If they blow past the resistance, look for the rally to reach a minimum 1093.50. You can try shorting there with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks. ______ UPDATE: With 22 minutes to go in the session, it looks as though the hogs are going to wallow their way to the 1093.50 target after all. The so-far high at 1089.75 represents a 12-point rally from the bear-trap low recorded an hour into the day. Shorts are no longer recommended, since we don’t like to open positions minutes before the close.
The 1074.50 target looms as an important test of bulls’ resolve. It will have implications for the intermediate-term forecast, since an easy move past it will greatly shorten the odds of a renewed burst to at least 1134. There is no question about the pivot itself, and that is why I expect to see at least tradable resistance when it is first touched. There is a secondary pivot at 1080.00, and we should take account of it as well. Accordingly, let’s stipulate that if 1080.00 is exceeded on a closing basis, long-term bulls should consider jumping back in without further ado. Alternatively, it would take a print at 1043.70 today or tomorrow to threaten the bullish outlook without wrecking it.
Look for the weakness to continue to at least 75.45, a clear Hidden Pivot that seems likely to provide a precise bounce. The bounce would be tradable if you are playing the dollar vs. euro, yen or pound. Alternatively, a print today at 76.18 would signal a bullish reversal worth buying. Your entry would enjoy camouflage if the impulsive a-b thrust does not exceed 76.18 by more than 3-4 ticks. ______ UPDATE (3:30 p.m.): A 75.44 low held for most of the day, until a fright-wig selloff punched out a new low at 75.34. Is that the best Da Boyz can do to impugn the target? For the record, the original target would have provided a nice trade, since DXY rallied 25 cents from within a penny of it.
The bonds have been weaker than I’d expected, but they’ll have a chance to reverse course today at the 119^29 midpoint of the downtrend shown in the chart. You can bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks, but if it’s hit expect the futures to continue south to at least 118^22. ______ UPDATE: Bonds trashed the target, rallied for a bit, then returned to looking like hell by day’s end. The 118^22 target is in play and can be bottom-fished with a 3-tick stop-loss. I suggest using the mini-contract.
Apple looks like a lead-pipe cinch to reach 199.90, a target flagged recently in Side Bets. If it should pull back first to 189.30, buy 200 shares there with a relatively wide stop-loss at 189.09. The implied 75-cent correction seems unlikely if stocks open on a short-squeeze as I’ve predicted, but the 189.30 pivot looks too tempting to pass up if the market — or Apple, at least — trades down Wednesday morning. ______ UPDATE: Apple leaped$3 right out of the gate then tanked, making fools out of bulls and bears alike before the session was 30 minutes old. The 199.90 target remains valid.
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South China Mall outside of Guangzhou (where??) is by far the world’s largest, dwarfing the Mall of America in every way. There are carnival rides, mini-parks, canals and lakes amid classic Western-style buildings with space for hundreds of shops. Alex Hu, a local Guangzhou boy who made it big in international business, wanted South China Mall to be a hometown monument to his success — even though Guangzhou has no major airports or highways nearby. And four years after its construction, the mall sits virtually empty of both shops and shoppers. But the Chinese have imported yet another concept familiar to Americans — South China Mall is considered too big to fail. So, employees line up for flag-raising ceremonies and pep talks about “brand building” before going off to maintain the deserted concourses meticulously. Click here to watch PBS’s fascinating, 13-minute documentary.
Subscriber Jonathan Auerbach, who travels the Third World in search of ground-floor investment opportunities, has sent us an interesting dispatch concerning, of all places, Africa. Here is his man-bites-dog story:
I returned this weekend from over two weeks in Africa and by the way I have been going to Africa regularly for 15 years and on any day (just like your hometown USA) you will run into fund managers, poets, bankers, visionaries, politicians, street people, traders, educators, and some just plain rogues. But here in Africa, categorically, they all have an energetic commitment, and most importantly, skin in the game, and they are compelled to understand the abundant enigma of this continent…if you have stayed with me so far, do not go, the best is yet to come. I’ve returned with a new African vision and no I am not going to repeat my mantra of the burgeoning growth of empowered people and private institutions.
What I have asked myself after this visit and what I want you to consider is why since South Africa reinvented itself under Mandela in the early 90s have we continued to view SA as something different from the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. Was it their lack of a recent kleptocratic colonial legacy? Was it their continuing exchange controls that mitigated active investment in their neighbors? Was it their ‘European’ connectivity with a highly automated electronic securities markets and dual listings in NY or London? Or was it just their perceived wealth at the top of the pyramid?
Forget all of this because our firm going forward is going to analyze and deal with SA as an integrated market in Africa. Why? Because on this trip I met a number of CEOs from major SA companies and the facts and their plans militate for rampant investment and development within the region. There used to be plenty of lip service that was easy to disregard when you looked them in the eye, but not today as we heard the plans from the likes of Anglogold Ashanti, NamPak, and Steinhoff. The most dramatic statement of the day came from Whitey Basson, CEO of Shoprite (perhaps the most active of all SA companies in regional investment). Whitey announced a month ago that they would open 14 new supermarkets in Nigeria (they currently have one). I asked him why and he said, “Because eventually Nigeria will be a larger market for us than South Africa.” I asked if I could quote him and he said sure…just think about the impact of that statement.








Earnings Hubris Lifts All Ships
by Rick Ackerman on October 14, 2009 2:17 am GMT · 7 comments
Stocks were going bonkers early Tuesday evening, presumably celebrating better-than-expected quarterly earnings from Intel. The chip maker announced after the close that business has been strong, driven mainly by back-to-school purchases of notebook computers. The news evidently had been leaked all over the Street, causing traders to push the chip maker’s shares to a 52-week high earlier in the day. However, DaBoyz waited until after the close to spring a trap on stock-market bears, gunning for thin offers in the » Read the full article