Six More Weeks of False Spring?

Read them and weep, all ye despairing bears!  The chart below shows a wicked “island gap reversal” in the share price of Goldman Sachs, and it is as much proof as anyone should need to infer that yet more weeks or perhaps even months of false spring await U.S. stocks. When Lehman, Bear Stearns and all the rest were in crash-and-burn mode a little more than a year ago, who would have imagined that as early as 2009, banks and securities firms would be paying out a record $140 billion to employees?  Major banks, hedge funds and asset managers are on track to do just that, and it would top the previous peak year of 2007, when the impending financial crash was broached as an absolute certainty only by certain fringe characters in the newsletter world.

Goldman-Island

Concerning Goldman, which lies within pitching-wedge distance of new all time highs, Jim Cramer thinks it’s bound for at least $240. That would represent a 25% rally from yesterday’s settlement price of $193. Cramer is even more bullish than we are, since 205.46, or perhaps 213.62 at the outside, is as high as Rick’s Picks can see for now. Incidentally, when Goldman was trading around $60, we’d projected a bear market low of $29.  We promised to don a grass skirt and dance the hula in Times Square if we were wrong, and so we were: The stock went no lower than $47. Live and learn, they say. We’ll let you know when it’s time for our big day in the Big Apple.

 Olympia Sleet

For those who have already given up on America, the huge Wall Street payout was not the only reminder of the Republic’s descent into darkness. Pictures of Republican turncoat Olympia Snow graced the front page of nearly every major newspaper. We’ve been hearing for many weeks that her vote in the Senate was the key to getting President Obama’s health care bill passed, but we could never quite believe that such a giant piece of the nation’s future could depend on the vote of one legislative minx. Turns out we were wrong.

We shudder to think of what deal might have caused her to change her mind, but it could not possibly have been mere facts. On that score, we’ll take the insurance companies at their word. They say the legislation will add $5,000 to every household’s annual health insurance bill, and that sounds low to us. Some on the Left will say it’s about time Uncle Sam socked it to the insurers, but it is not the insurers who will pay. Anyone who is for this bill obviously believes someone else will bear its cost. In fact, we all will, and the final tab will be so much higher than Baucus’ estimate that it will dwarf Medicare. We knew the taxpayers were on the ropes when Rep. Joe Wilson called Obama a liar and the news media (other than the Wall Street Journal op-ed page) failed to back him up.

 (If you’d like to have Rick’s Picks commentary delivered free each day to your e-mail box, click here.)

  • Chris T. October 17, 2009, 4:12 am

    Gary L:

    “Isolationism and creating an excuse for war is not an opposing view. We excluded everyone from any world discussion,”

    One can only square your comment if you mean by isolationism, doing what we please without caring what anyone has to say about it (“excluded everyone…”)”. OK, using that definition, then they mey not be opposing views.

    However, when you criticise the Republicans, and you do so by decrying their isolationism, then you should use it in the meaning it has had for a very long time, as in Buchanan and isolantionism, or Lindbergh and the America First isolationism.

    The latter two are examples of the usual definiton in this context. Making up your own is rather useless.
    And to repeat, using the common usage, INTERFERING left and right in the world (ala Bush, Cheney, and the neocon agenda) is clearly in opposition to “”ISOLATING” within the US and letting the rest of the world be.

    I did point out that I did not agree using “isolationism” disdainfully in the latter case, but I do agree with yoru disdainful comment in the former, whcih makes sense. Having had to assume that you are also employing common usage, then chiding both approaches makes no sense.

    Under this reading, you are really dealing with two Rep. parties, the former being the new, hijacked kind, the latter being the old traditional one. They are opposed to each other, see the recent spat viz. Lindsey Graham, and Ron Paul, so how can you be against both and make sense?

    You can teach empathy about as much as ethics or honesty in a school or academic setting. But Democratic empathey consists of enlistin OTHER people’s money to support the poor and downtrodden.
    Pelosi, Feinstein, Kennedy, and the list of multi-millionaire Dems in the Congress goes on and on, or take our most famous community activist, who was rich even before the Swedish largesse. These people spend their lives in “public service” , which supposedly is not well paying, yet are millionaires nevertheless.
    How come none of them ever FIRST give away all theirs, before asking me to contribute to their pet causes first? Never happens.

  • tom r October 16, 2009, 7:26 pm

    54% of Maine-iacs favor the public health option? Says who? A polling firm that asked 610 residents of the ill-informed ilk who are selected for juries, in other words, “Are you a moron, or do you support the public health option”? PUBLIC opinion polls are “scientific” ONLY in the manner in which the questions are phrased and ordered to elicit the desired responses. PRIVATE opinion polling, of much larger numbers of people, commissioned by politicians, et al, are much more reliable as indicators of actual opinion. Public opinion polling is a tendentious fraud intended to deceive voters and enable the scoundrels who run the Congress to reward their string-pullers with pay-offs many multiples of the bribes they have received, while purporting to do the people’s will. Olympia Snowe has been, is, and will continue to be beneath contempt. She has found her proper station in life in the US Senate.

    &&&&&

    I held back, Tom, when I referred to Snowe as a “minx”. RA

  • cosmo October 16, 2009, 3:22 pm

    The commentary has been quite interesting of late and the informed opinions shining some light on several issues, political and economic. Thanks Rick for the forum. I’m sure many here pass along the same sentiments…

    I have only one thing to thank GWB for…I am cured of caring about the politics in the USA…It is rotten and corrupt to the core. I read so many commentators with long and established careers with stories that have been told from so many angles that a blind man could see it. From gold price suppression, to JPM derivative book in Treasuries(suppressing interest rates), phone calls by Paulson to GS(surprised?) on the morning he announced his “Rescue plan”. GWB should have been impeached for starting a war based on lies, but the idea was smacked down by Pelosi first hing when the Dems won in ’06. Where is the outrage??(Rick asked us when the banks announced their bonus plans a couple months ago) IMO, Ron Paul ’08 was the last hope for the US. Now the writing is on the wall. The US is going down and the question is, “Are you going with it??”

    I avoid insurance on principle. It is a bet against yourself. I am 45 now and haven’t been in the hospital, but twice for a couple job injuries(thanks OHSA!), in 20 years. How much have I saved in that time without insurance? Call it retirement, because I am, for 5 years now. The insurance companies live on fear, and tell you that you can’t live without them, but I can tell you that I am retired because I never ‘bought’ their fear..

    Do you own GS stock and agree with their “business” and bonus structure? Do you own or buy gas at XOM, the perpetrators of the most hideous thing I’ve seen in my life, the Exxon Valdez spill?(among countless other examples) Then you don’t get it. You are actively supporting the corrupt system you complain about. You play at the casino of “The Market” without consciousness of the effect of your actions. You play at the game of “money” without the deeper meaning of what it is. When you travel outside the US and see what a person has to do to to earn $1.50/day to feed his family, you will see the meaning of money then, maybe, if your eyes are truly open. But, if you go and buy 100 contracts long rice, just because the price is rising, you are absolutely starving someone in this world. This is consciousness of your actions!! Are you awake??

    I suggest that people take responsibility for their lives and stop paying taxes if you don’t agree how the money is spent. I refuse to pay taxes for wars started on false premises, bailouts for banks(the true evil in the world,IMO), astronomical spending by the govt, etc… Stop whining and make a stand. Refuse to shop or buy products from companies that are harming you or the environment or have objectionable business practices. Get a bicycle and ride it to the market. Try and grow some food. If its a depression and you know it now and the worst is still to come what are you doing now to prepare?

    Have you looked at the wall and the story it tells…human beings are poor at adapting to changes…some will embrace the change coming and others will die resisting. If you want to survive, you must prepare for yourself before you will be able to help others survive. The sense of community will be critical for mental health in the years ahead…The time of ego gratification is passing into a new era…

  • gary leibowitz October 16, 2009, 3:14 pm

    Chris,

    Isolationism and creating an excuse for war is not an opposing view. We excluded everyone from any world discussion, branded anyone that was against us (American Fries, Canada detention on the borders, labeled anyone unamerican by daring to oppose the war, spying on everyone even americans).

    But you know all this. I guess the motto of “everything to fear from fear itself” should be placed on the new Republican party. I am not saying the democrats are angels, but given the current choice its a no-brainer.

    One last point, empathy should be a required elementary course (lol).

  • Davidc October 16, 2009, 12:38 pm

    Oddly it wasnt too long ago you were calling the rallys bluff and even my 7 year old knows that is not an island reversal either. Its 2 gaps, a bullish Island ” reversal” comes at the bottom of a downtrend.

    &&&&&

    Not sure I follow, although, to paraphrase Groucho, maybe your seven-year-old could explain what you’ve said. RA

  • DarkestKnight October 16, 2009, 2:53 am

    Sorry, couldn’t resist.
    But nicely bearish volume too on GS last night (I’m in Australia) and that huge rising wedge is looking oh so juicy for imminent collapse -but maybe not enough to save you from the dreaded hula skirt!
    ps plus methinks the EUR 1.4960 & AUD 92.70 (ending diagonal) are forming their ultimate tops as we speak- with close correlation with imminent SP500 top about 1110.

  • DarkestKnight October 15, 2009, 11:47 pm

    GS- Island Top anyone? (!)

    Ha-ha. Should we put you down as a bear on Goldman, then? RA

  • Chris T. October 15, 2009, 11:42 pm

    Many interesting comments above.

    Edward disdains anyone, including Peter Schiff, and thus also by implication Ron Paul, for remaining in the system.
    The only way an outside the system candidate will ever have a chance if gunfire first destroys that system, which is not imminent. Therefore, for you to angle for the outside-option is futile.
    Steven has it right: To be able to get anywhere, the party, Republican in this case, has to be seized back in the same way that the NEOCONS coopted it in the first place.

    We need to show these RINOs and their supporters, that they can no longer win with blind support of the “”conservatives”
    Better a real Democrat than one maskerading as a Republican, and providing that imprimateur of bi-partisanship, as Steven points out.
    Examples, better Obama than McCain (who would be doing the same cr*p anyway), and in my state, better another Corzine term than RINO Christie. If they want to keep shooting down the Ron Paul’s, or Murray Sabrins or Steve Lonegans (last two local politics) then let them keep losing.

    This is true the other way too: SC senate race, where the Dems supported Lindsey Graham against a true conservative Dem.
    No matter how corrupted and samefaced, the outside the parties approach will be even less successful than an attempt at take back.

    Gary Leibowitz:

    Too bad you are so stuck in your “left” attitudes.

    You write disparagingly:
    “The republicans … (l)ets not forget a war fabricated by Cheney and Wolfowitz that got glaringly exposed for what it was.”

    You are right, NEOCON fabrications.
    But that source alone should tell you that this is not “Republican” but from the people who really share your ideology. Their intellectual forebears were Leo Strauss and Irving Kristol, Trotkyites, who did NOT reform, they only adopted a different veneer to be able to undermine and co-opt.

    But then you write disparagingly:
    “Imagine if the Republican party got all that they wished for… isolationism to the extreme.”

    What do you want? You hate the NEOCONs mega interventionism and their fake wars, AND you chide so-called isolationism? Where is the intellectual honesty there?
    Make up your mind which you think is right!
    You can’t have it both ways. Isolationism is a shill word anyway for simply not interfereing in others’ affairs. There are no good wars or just wars, just propaganda to rile up every side and make money.

    ” So keep blaming this President for the absolute disaster he inherited.”

    No, blame him for doing EXACTLY THE SAME THING as that which led to the disastier he inherited, and doing it times 10.

    “I thought the Repulicans were for choice and competition? Guess their arses are exposed on this one, just like the democrats were exposed of tort reform.”

    The fake choice by a supposed competitor? What clap-trap, that the left keeps bandying about. You think it is so clever to attempt using a supposed conservative “win” argument against them, but it is all fallacy.

    What you are advocating is not choice and competition, but MONOPOLY.
    Why?
    Because the competition you are dreaming of is fake, a non-level playing field. Any losses on the private side will lead to failure, but on the governments side, to just more tax-rip-off subsidies.
    What will remaing standing is another inefficient moloch of a government entity. As if Fanny and Freddy with the 65% share PRE-housing crash isn’t enough example of this.

    Sorry about the rant, but these disingenous arguments and sub-intellectual points get my goat.

  • Dusty October 15, 2009, 10:28 pm

    Getting a public health care bill passed would be a lot easier to accomplish if Congress and the Senate had their public assisted health care plans revoked. If they had to go through what everyone else has to, there would be a better more efficient public health care plan in effect. But why should Congress and the Senate pass it? There is no skin off their nose. They have the best health care plan in the nation and won’t be affected by whatever water downed health care bill gets passed. But take away their elite health privileges and a working health care plan would be passed in just a few weeks. Either that or the old decrepit members of Congress and the Senate would die off, or have to get a second job to pay for their extended health care costs. It seems that the public plan works well for them, why not everyone else?

    Dusty

  • Kevin Merry October 15, 2009, 8:13 pm

    I agree, no health care system is better than half. Half a system will invite politics and garanteed the ordinary Joe gets it in the end.

    But one comment to KEITH, the beacon of hope to the world was an illusion created via free land and then the fed. The reason America became the land of opportunity was because of immigration and limited government due to it’s immaturity in part but also the founding fathers vision of a sound country. Once matured with finacial infrastructure in place then came the FED in 1913 and easy money for the next 95 years. A prosperity built via debt reflected in the deterioation in the buying power of the dollar by 97% and falling. But I do agree with one thing, was the beacon of hope fits perfect and never again could have followed.

  • Jay October 15, 2009, 7:46 pm

    Let me quote an “interesting” viewpoint by Greg Palast, which I read just before reading you today’s article, Rick:

    QUOTE
    What’s killing you, Barack, is what’s killing us all: an evil germ called “Medical Loss Ratio.”

    “Medical Loss Ratio” [MLR] is the fancy term used by health insurance companies for their slice, their take-out, their pound of flesh, their gross – very gross – profit.

    The “MLR” is the difference between what you pay an insurance company and what that insurer pays out to doctors, hospitals and pharmacists for your medical care.

    I’ve totted it up from the raw stats: The “MLR,” insurance companies’ margins, is about to top – holy mama! – a quarter trillion dollars a year. That’s $2.7 trillion over the next decade.

    Until the 1990’s, insurers skimmed only about a nickel on the dollar for their “service,” Wendell Potter told me. Potter is the CIGNA insurance company PR man who came in from the cold to tell us about what goes down inside the health insurance gold mine. Today, Potter notes (and I’ve checked his accuracy), porky operators like AIG have kicked up their Loss Ratio by nearly 500 percent.

    The industries’ slice is growing to nearly a quarter of your insurance bill. All of it just paperwork and profiteering.

    President Obama is never going to pull the insurance company piggies from a trough this big, especially when the industry has made room for Congressional snouts.

    So what’s the Rx? Easy: Kill the pigs and call the fire department

    Find Greg’s conclusion here:
    http://www.truthout.org:80/1015091

  • Steve October 15, 2009, 7:42 pm

    I do not believe 3rd party is any sort of answer. The answer is to find and run conservatives against every RINO in the Republican primaries, even if it costs the seat in the general election as it might in a state like Maine. Snowe is the classic example. I would rather the Democrats have another Senate seat, than to have Snowe (or earlier Specter) vote on liberal legislation to allow for the bipartisan label to be given to it by Obama and the media. Let the liberal Democrats OWN 100% of this legislation

  • Steve October 15, 2009, 7:05 pm

    You’ll take the insurance companies at their word? Are you kidding me? The only things I trust less than the government are wall street banks and freaking insurance companies. The bill is garbage, in that it doesn’t implement a single payer system. The only thing we can hope for is at least some sort of government option that will severely undercut these crooks.

  • T'inker October 15, 2009, 6:10 pm

    Very odd mix of personal philosophies applied to various SUPPOSED realities in the commentaries. The responses, and their apparent “variety” are, perhaps, even more informative – and, to me, at least as interesting.
    I just wonder sometimes. I mean, if one does not know exactly what human beings are “supposed” to be doing, in the big picture, how accurate can one’s “derivative” opinions be – and that’s just on the side of opinion, on the side of “philosophy”.
    But then on the other side, there is the whole issue of perception. Currents of right- and left-wing political ideologies (witnessed here as everywhere else) seem to have as much to do with perception of what constitutes “Reality” as do the ideologies themselves.
    I am taking this Pulpit Opportunity (offered by Rick; such offers of free expression should not go thankless, so thank you Rick) in order to ask “disturbing” questions such as: When exactly do we imagine that the U.S became this Great Place with all its Fantastic Freedoms? (After genocide, but before slavery? On which temporal side of which violation of The Constitution? Before or since U.S women’s breast-milk became flooded with toxic fire retardants?)
    Or one may, in turn, ask why it is supposed that having a Constitution that SEEMS to favor the Idea of Liberty is enough to justify the opinion that said Liberty actually exits in Reality? And one may further ask: For whom? Or this: What good is “Social Freedom” if we live in a virtual Toxic Super-sight?
    Take the confusion-storm about Socialism and Free Market Capitalism. Which actually pertains (and in what supposed proportional mix) in the US? I have heard, as we all have, that Socialism is a ruinous tendency to ignore logic, but without any real definition of what Socialism in American Politics actually
    is. (I honestly cannot determine what either the generality of supporters or detractors think that Socialism, or Capitalism is. Heated rants for sure, but no clarity) And what of Free Market Capitalism; when did it exist (as its proponents “think” of it as being, even if only ideally) – ever?
    And what of now? It seems quite arguable that Free Market Capitalism exists today in the US, right now, in perfect Darwinian Freedom – or, perhaps, depending on one’s proclivities, as the perfect expression of God’s Will.
    Just follow the Money-which-is-Power.
    Capital RULES. No question. It has bought everything in sight. By all the evidence that I can most easily get my inquiring little fingers on (since that evidence is actively thrown in our faces all day long – though it is up to the individual to decide whether to contextualize or not) capital OWNS Government (in all its branches and also Politicians individually) and Media and Resources. Capital, when seen for its real effect, for what it is, as the expression of Social Power, exhibits (in the US and in every other Nation, regardless of Political Stripe) the kind of Freedom that only an idiot could imagine to be under any real restrictions whatsoever. It is the Greatest Club on Earth. It is the Wet Dream of Elitist Feudalism. Did America break from Top Down European Social Hierarchy only to trump those “silly” Brits et al at their own Game? What an exercise in futility.
    One might propose that any Political System would work IF the EFFECTIVE majority voice was an expression of human sanity – and that without such effective sanity, no Political System could ever work in favor of essential human values.
    Peons (all of the rest of us who do not have such Membership) may imagine all kinds of Realities and attendant Rationalized Philosophies and Opinions, but we are all so concerned with fighting over the most ridiculous scraps of power (of the kind that might be used to effect any kind of real “freedom”
    within our society – to say nothing of the earth and its resources) that we cannot even come to the vaguest consensus of the what the realities on the ground actually are. Divided (in a snow-storm of miniaturized misinformation and triviality) are we conquered and ruled.
    All I can suggest is this: Forget the little stuff. Pay attention to the biggest picture you can, with regards to anything that you feel is worth thinking about. About Society (within the context of the concerns here) for example: It follows the flow of Power, so observe the flow of Money – the biggest Money. Forget the details of means – look at the
    EFFECTS as evidenced in reality – and don’t ignore any big chunks of it either, if you really want to understand. About yourself: Focus on your own highest aspirations. Sort them out, from top down. Otherwise one ends up sitting around with the other “little boys” placing side bets on ice or fire at a show that was created according to a set of dark (read, ultimately: ignorant) purposes utterly alien to one’s own. Do we want to live as independent free-thinking individuals, or do we merely want to watch others live as tyrants and squabblers?

  • nowhuffo October 15, 2009, 6:04 pm

    I believe the Stones sing; “you can’t always get what you want.”….”you get what you need.” For whatever that is worth. Using rock song lyrics to explain what is going on these days is as good as anything else.

  • gary leibowitz October 15, 2009, 6:00 pm

    I find it strange how anyone can bash healthcare without bashing Medicare. Lets not forget the other massive socialist program Social Security.

    I guess the wealthy who feel its a dog eat world and that the haves should not give a free pass to the have nots find this type of argument comforting.

    The republicans over long 8 year tenure had outspent the loose spending democrats on social programs and at same time gave away trillions to the wealthy on tax breaks. Those poor wealthy people who are so persecuted. Lets not forget a war fabricated by Cheney and Wolfowitz that got glaringly exposed for what it was.

    Imagine if the Republican party got all that they wished for. You know, Social Security tied to the stock market, disbanding (bankrupting) the Medicare/medicaid program, isolationism to the extreme.

    Need i go on? So keep blaming this President for the absolute disaster he inherited. Blame him and you blame all Presidents that get stuck in such a situation. Gee another socialist (commie) program run by the govenment? Who needs that type of interference anyway? Its already at 17 percent unemployment and bound to get a lot worse. I find it appaling that this govenment should spend money it doesn’t have in order to keep those lazy ignorant unemployed with some semblence of a “safety net”.

    BTW, Medicare program is considered a good efficient program run by the Government. Don’t take my word for it. Imagine that the main concern the Republican has for any health bill is that dreaded Health option where people can choose between programs and insurers. I thought the Repulicans were for choice and competition? Guess their arses are exposed on this one, just like the democrats were exposed of tort reform.

  • Dave October 15, 2009, 4:50 pm

    Hi Rick,
    Sorry to post again but there was something else that I wanted to mention. Mr. Obama does not go up for re-election until 2012. It is best for him that the worse will happen to our economy for the next couple of years, and December 2011 (give or take a couple of month’s)will be the start of the new bull market in SPY. People, in general, alway’s think of how they feel at the moment, of who they choose to vote for. Political people know that.

  • Dave October 15, 2009, 4:31 pm

    You are exactly right. I do not have health insurance, because I choose not to. The threat of cutting my disposable income will hurt myself financially and IMO the stock market. It will be the same thing as a huge future tax increase for myself and alot of other folk’s like myself. When you combine that with the upcoming commercial morgage loans that will come due and the reset’s of home loan’s that were purchased during the bubble era. I predict deflation if this health reform bill passes, and increasing unemployment.

  • Rich October 15, 2009, 4:01 pm

    Here Hear Edward.
    Tested waters for Congress in 1994 and quickly learned what you say is true and a platform like this is the only real solution. Unlikely to happen until government collapses. Both parties basically controlled by the government mafia.

    On a lighter note:

    A health care system plan written by a committee whose head says he
    doesn’t understand any of it, to be passed by a Congress that hasn’t
    and won’t read it, but exempts themselves from it,
    signed by a president who smokes and also hasn’t read it,
    with funding administered by a Treasury Secretary who didn’t pay his taxes,
    overseen by an obese Surgeon General,
    and massively financed by a country that’s nearly broke.

    Great plan! What could possibly go wrong?

  • Edward October 15, 2009, 3:28 pm

    Until those of you who instinctively engage in the bogus left/right debate drop your futile thrashing, you will never do you or your country any favors. The two parties are far more alike than not, and both are a cancer on the body politic as both are equally corrupted by a select group of powerful interests. Presently, for example, the big banks, among others, have a stranglehold on both parties as they have for quite some time. But I digress.

    In Freedom’s Land there is no far left or far right, at least not worth worrying over, and in any case, most folks, including a number on this site, appear mightily confused as to what constitutes a liberal and what it means to be a conservative. In any event, blanket condemnations of either creed, not that anyone on this site engages in unqualified charges of so called “conservatives” are puerile where they are not simply idiotic.

    If you want better governance then start by systematically refusing to give your vote or support to anyone who runs as a either a Republican or a Democrat- and that includes Peter Schiff- because anyone who goes under those two banners clearly already possess a mind and spirit ripe for ultimate capture by our debauched system.

    Now please pardon my effrontery, but instead advocate for candidates who run on most if not all of the following-not necessarily listed in order of importance- and then you may see a different and better legislature and executive branch than the ones we have become accustomed to.

    A.) Term limits
    B.) Campaign Finance Reform
    C.) Shortened Election Cycles
    D.) An end to “Redistricting”
    E.) Full Audit of The Federal Reserve
    F.) The restoration of constitutional mandate for congressional control of U.S. currency.
    G.) An end to further raising of the debt ceiling
    H.) Immediate removal of all troops, personnel, and material from Iran and Afghanistan
    I.) Replacement of income tax and estate taxes with new levies on consumption, and amended levies on capital gains by individuals and corporations.
    J.) Health care reform that is first and foremost free market based with no governmental bias towards “Big Pharma” or the insurance industry.
    K.) A multi-generational program designed to return some “reasonable sum” of manufacture back to the United States
    L.) The complete overhaul of such government agencies as the SEC, The Bureau of Labor and Statistics, and Homeland Security, to name but a few.
    M.) Full investigations of those individuals in and out of government who are alleged to have engaged in criminal activity associated with the collapse of various large banking concerns and quasi government agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
    N.) An end to the entire “alphabet soup” of programs funneling money to too big to be allowed to exist parasitic institutions such as AIG, BOA, GS, Citicorp, and JPM.
    O.) A restoration of mark to market accounting standards, and the cessation of the writing of any more “standard performance contracts” aka OTC derivatives, until such time as a regulated exchange is instituted for their trade.
    P.) A complete rollback of all cap and trade legislation.

  • Rich October 15, 2009, 2:41 pm

    On 24 March 1999 the Dow closed at 10,015.86.
    Lest anyone think we went nowhere in ten and a half years,
    consider that in terms of gold the Dow is 1602.53.
    We like SSG above 20.50 with a 1% trailing Buy Stop…

  • Mercurious October 15, 2009, 2:36 pm

    We all would like to know where the current fevered state of affairs we see abroad in the republic will take us; a few think they may know.
    .
    I think we are waiting for a catalyzing event to break the boil wide open, and I don’t mean necessarily in a bad way. There is so much malfeasance, so much corruption, so much naked greed and well-clothed feather bedding going on it has all the feel of a “cosmic reversal pattern.” The spring is being wound up tighter and tighter; this balloon is facing a gauntlet of pins such as we’ve not seen in, oh, a century or more. There are so many secrets to hide, so many dirty deeds done dirt cheap by the lowest bidders who lead our society, it all just seems deliciously designed to be a stage set of Good vs. Evil, but with each of us having to go under the microscope.
    .
    Do we care at all what happens to anyone else as long as we get richer and richer? Are we willing to do things that will damage our world after we’re gone, as long as we can luxuriate a bit more now? What is authority, and when should we not obey it? It’s called a paradigm shift, we’re smack in the middle of it and this goes way, way beyond markets. Nothing wrong with making a buck; I backed up the truck on silver around $4. But the sewage we’re drowning in everywhere should force us to step back and recalibrate what being a human being means. We’re killing ourselves here.

  • Dale October 15, 2009, 1:05 pm

    I always thought that it was the job of the delegates in the House of Representatives to “represent” the people in their State. A Senator, on the other hand, is supposed to vote his/her conscience for the good of the Country. I’m not giving Snow a pass by simply accepting that, she did only what she was told to do (by the people of Maine). That type of reasoning didn’t work at Nuremberg as the generals were held to a higher standard. I think we should hold our Senators to that same higher standard.

  • Ben October 15, 2009, 12:28 pm

    Well Mr. Ackerman, your article certainly matches the whether where I’m at today (rainy, cloudy, and too cold for this time of year) (although I had a laugh at the whoopee cushion chart yesterday!)

    Sooo unfair. Bankers, Big Government, and people who ought to know better get to have their “right” to a field day respected, but I don’t. I tell ya, it sucks being a libertarian. We’re not sheeple herders and that’s what sheeple most want. We’ll never win. Sigh… I wonder what Benjamin Franklin would say to all of this?

    “No man’s life, liberty or fortune is safe while our legislature is in session.” –Benjamin Franklin

    The more things change…

    Anyway, I doubt GS would be doing so well had our joke of a representative government denied the bankers their bailout. It’s a good thing you didn’t agree to do something really stupid, like, say, wear a boa constrictor around your neck for a day…or rather, for as long you could live for doing so … because it was destined to happen.

  • C.C. October 15, 2009, 8:22 am

    Hear, hear on the Olympia Snow comment Rick. Case study in full-time legislatorship. Both sides of the isle, unfortunately.

    The public option ‘everybody wants’? Nationwide polling data or a few select states here & there? This is not America nor what living in America or being an American is supposed to be about. I am supposed to have the Freedom to choose whether I want health insurance, not an over-bloated government-run bureaucracy making those decisions for me. There is a reason for the strong push-back by the electorate on this issue – and it don’t have anything to do with which doctor they want to see. It has everything to do with the rights of the individual vs. the State. But I certainly wouldn’t expect those with Statist leanings to understand or appreciate my sentiments.

    This poltically fueled race for ‘health-care’ is in reality, a showdown for yet another nail in the coffin of Liberty and those who wish to fight against these Statist forces to preserve it. We are not that many steps or political ‘mandates’ away from quasi-authoritarianism. Did you ever think the land of Liberty and self-determination would come to this?

    &&&&&&

    I find it stunning that the overwhelming push-back so far has not killed this bill. It is like the Frankensten monster. RA

  • Paul October 15, 2009, 5:07 am

    Do Democratics and a few Republicans think that money is no object in these times of huge deficits? Since I know that they’ve heard, and I have to believe that they know, how much ObamaCare will cost, then I’m left with the conclusion that they just don’t give a rat’s a$$ about the money and the fate of the dollar.

    Maybe Congresspersons just don’t have the snap to put the connect the dots, or they read Krugman and thinks he’s infallible (the bigger the deficit, the faster the cure for economic woes). I’d love to see Krugman’s brokerage statement. He’s probably a closet goldbug and triple short the USD, with a fully stocked shelter in an abandoned Atlas missile silo in North Dakota.

    As billwilson points out, the Senator from Maine was just following her constituents’ wishes. Some would add, just buying votes with mostly foreigners’ USDs and QE-created USDs. Maybe Olympia and her supporters should take The Stones’ lyrics to heart. “You can always get what you want.”

    No one, except for a few Congressional outsiders, like Rep. Ron Paul, gives a hoot about the USD.

    Is it not becoming a horse race between how fast debt and assets can implode, and the dollar de-value? Will the USD really be king as this depression worsens? How long will the Chinese, Japanese, Brits, etc., idly watch as the dollar crashes through 70 on the index? Do they figure that the price of assets will crater as faster or faster than the value of the USD?

    Rick, sorry about the inflation / deflation rant. The topic’s sssooo addicting.

  • William October 15, 2009, 4:59 am

    Rick,

    Where in the world am I going to find an extra $416.66 per month? Another job? Know anybody hiring? 16 hour workdays can’t be that bad, right?

    Does GS need someone to babysit their computers on the graveyard shift?

  • billwilson October 15, 2009, 3:37 am

    Ah democracy … I think that is what you are in favor of , right?

    http://www.politico.com/static/PPM41_omnibus_fall_2009.html

    Snowe was just voting according to her constituents’ wishes. For example, in Maine, 54% favor a public option (37% against). And perhaps surprisingly 52% rate the current health care system as poor or very poor, against 18% as good or excellent. Pretty surprising when the US somehow spends 50% more than anyone else and gets worse results. … of course 30% of the costs come from insurance companies working hard to keep profits up by denying coverage (got to have an insurance bureaucrat between you and your Doctor).

    Its quite simple, the majority of folks want a public option and want reform. That’s democracy for you.

    I do want to thank you for your market comments though. They have saved me a bit of money by stopping me from trying to short (more than I have) this train wreck of a market. I’m about ready to go all cash and just “go fishing” for a few months, until the insanity passes over.

    &&&&&

    Glad my forecasts have saved you some skin, Bill. Bullish forecasts are always going to sound more credible when they come from a case-hardened, unapologetic, incorrigible permabear like me. On the health care issue, though, we’ll have to agree to disagree. RA

  • DarkestKnight October 15, 2009, 1:37 am

    Rick- from a classical TA standpoint an island reversal is usually at a signifiant top or bottom, the inital gap being an ‘exhaustion gap’ after a significant rally/decline. I don’t think the one you have pointed out fits the description of Island Gap, unless you have your own method within your Pivot system (what does Edwards & McGee say anyone?)

    &&&&&

    Edwards & Magee see islands as minor events that typically give way to retracements of the minor trends that preceded them. My own method sees this particular island as projecting to at least 201.67 over the very near term, provided GS can bulldoze its way past the “Hidden Pivot midpoint” at 193.38 associated with the target. Yesterday’s 193.60 peak didn’t quite qualify. RA

  • Chris T. October 15, 2009, 12:41 am

    Rick,

    Did you ever put a time limit on that GS bottom target? O r was it predicated on hitting that one, before reaching a certain high?
    Somehow, despite the evidence you point out, one still hopes that you will be right.

    Around here, Northern NJ, the acorns have been dropping extremely heavily, and an old farmers saying has that be a portend of a cold, harsh winter!
    One also has to wonder how much LB or Bear would be trading at, if their peers’ takedown hadn’t worked.

    Those monster bonuses — any chance that they will shore up the NYC real-estate market, and keep those quarter-million CPW Apts from occurring? The NYC Ferrari dealer must certainly be jumping for joy.

    Finally, about your Yanks/Phillies comment:
    True from a pure sports point of view, no argument there..
    But I can’t help myself in wishing an end to this year’s Yanks without even a pennant, just to show that taxpayer-ripping-off, ballpark-icon-destroying, citi-park-devouring SOB Steinbrenner.

    &&&&&

    I actually do think Goldman shares will eventually trade for $29, Chris. However, the correct sense of my prediction was that it would happen sooner rather than later, and so I’ll walk the plank. RA

  • Keith October 15, 2009, 12:35 am

    The health care bill will be one of the worst turns this country has made. At least if things turn sour overall in the next decade we’ll have the far left to blame although they’ll spin it and say it’s because we haven’t done enough.

    The U.S. was (is) a beacon of hope in the world, spreading freedom and capitalism. Let’s hope the spirit of freedom still deeply embedded within the American people can stop runaway socialism.

    I like what Milton Friedman said: “The only cases in recorded history where the masses of people have escaped grinding poverty is where they’ve had capitalism and largely free trade. If you want to know where the people are worst off, [it is where societies have departed from that]. The record of history is clear that there is no alternative way so far discovered of improving the lives of ordinary people that can hold a candle to the productive activities that are unleashed by a free enterprise system.”