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COMMENTARY for Wednesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Wednesday
Rick's Picks for Wednesday
A waft-ing we will go! With little apparent resistance from sellers, the futures are doing Tuesday night what they were unable to do earlier in the day — i.e., float effortlessly higher. I am still guaranteeing a minimum 1113.00 for now, although I stop short of making this Hidden Pivot a hula number, since I don’t want to become a regular amongst the Times Square weirdos. I’ve included a chart that provides a visual hint to bears of why it will be futile to resist. I see no camouflage opportunities for night owls, even on the one-minute chart, so long entries will probably have to be seat-of-the-pants.
Lacking the steadfast support of such sovereign buyers of gold as India and China, silver remains on the disabled list, unable again yesterday to push past a 17.970 peak from October 23 peak that December Gold shredded last week in mere minutes. In fact, Silver’s current rally, such as it is, failed to pierce even a secondary peak at 17.800 recorded on October 26 that should have been a piece of cake. If it continues to barrel higher, gold will eventually drag silver higher. However, I doubt this effect will be seen if December Gold hits 1034.50 and takes a rest, as seems likely. What silver bulls can hope for at the moment is that October’s supply zone, which ranges from 17.210 to 19.175, gets eaten away over the next 2-3 weeks. Even better would be a gold blowout above 1034.50, since that would exert an irresistible pull on silver.
The 1134.50 rally target that has served us so well for months is not technically in play for trading purposes until the futures put a lesser Hidden Pivot at 1111.90 behind them. Monday’s punch-through high at 1111.70 obviously didn’t do that, but it would take only 1113.10 or so intraday to get the job done. To that end, yesterday’s leap to nowhere, gratuitous though it may have seemed, was constructive in that it demonstrated that the futures are having more trouble going down than up. Note in the accompanying chart how the corrective abcd reversed from three ticks below its HP midpoint. There is mild weakness implied in this action, but it is probably merely corrective, since the 30-minute rally that followed exceeded an “internal” peak, creating a dueling effect.
The unintuitive ABCD rally pattern in the chart projects to as high as 182.06 over the near term, although Goldman’s tired performance yesterday does not inspire much confidence that it will be reached any time soon. Those who say the bear rally has miles to go must explain how it will happen without the banking sector leading the charge. We’re all ears if there’s another stock or group of stocks that can take on a leadership role.
You asked, we listened. I’ve switched from the cash index to the futures contract, since some subscribers evidently trade this vehicle. It’ll need a print above 75.175 today to turn the lesser charts in bulls’ favor. Barring that, look for weakness over the near term to take the futures down to at least 74.440. An HP midpoint at 74.905 can be used to confirm.
A Hidden Pivot at 1534.30 flagged here earlier is pulling the futures lower, along with a secondary target (shown) at 1532.70. Camouflage is called for if bottom-fishing, so start looking for the turn on the 5-minute (or less) chart from 1535.80 on down. If these supports give way easily and, heaven forbid, the futures close below them, the next stop would likely be 1500.00, the ‘D’ target of the large pattern shown. Night owls could also use a 1520.30 target to bottom-fish — without camouflage. A four-tick stop-loss should suffice. Want to learn how to do this stuff yourself? Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar on June 6-7.
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There are numerous bearish patterns we can use to project a potentially important low, but the one that I like most has three single-bar coordinates, all sharply etched. They produce a 358.38 ‘D’ target, and although I cannot guarantee that will be where the carnage ends, it would most surely be worth bottom-fishing with a tight stop-loss. My best-case scenario implies that the low was made yesterday at 390.63, just 0.59 points from the ‘D’ target shown in lavender. To take the offensive, bulls would need to push this vehicle to 422.47 by Thursday.
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This Just In... for Wednesday
I’ll be in San Francisco next Saturday to speak on the topic “Using Street Smarts to Beat the Odds” . Click here if you’d like more information about this event, which is sponsored by the Technical Securities Analysts Association. Here’s the lineup:
Jon Najarian – CNBC Fast Money contributor, co-founder Option & Trade Monster
Tim Knight – Technical Analyst, developer of Barron’s top rated Prophet.net
Dan Sheridan – Sheridan Options Mentoring
Rick Ackerman – Hidden Pivot Point Trading
Steve Smith – Minyanville Options Expert
Richard Lehman – “Far from Random”, Using Trends & Trend Channels
Charles Cottle – The “Risk Doctor”, Options Trading Education
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held this June 6th - 7th. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
Jobless Executives Spend Down Reserves
by Rick Ackerman on November 11, 2009 2:34 am GMT · 4 comments
For executives temporarily living the good life on severance pay, the future looks grim. Many top earners, especially in the financial sector, lost jobs that will never return. Credit-swap specialist, anyone? So what are former $200,000-a-year bank executives and erstwhile marketing honchos doing these days to get back in the ol’ rat race? Mostly, they are hoping the economy will revive, but not setting their sights too high, according to an » Read the full article