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COMMENTARY for Monday
TODAY'S ACTION for Monday
Rick's Picks for Monday
For all of December Gold’s histrionics on Friday, the intraday low failed to take out any prior lows on the daily chart; it therefore didn’t even come close to creating a bearish impulse leg. Moreover, the first of the prior lows should have been a piece of cake, since it comprised a single-bar bottom anchoring a modest, three-day consolidation (see chart). This low would not likely have provided much support if it had been tested, but in the end, sellers looking down the barrel of a pea-shooter declined to shoot it out. These are all subjective considerations, but they contribute to a picture that was bullish to begin with and which has now become moreso because sellers showed such cowardice. Looking just ahead, we should note that the futures ended the week with Friday’s sharp recovery still in motion. The nearest unachieved Hidden Pivot worth noting lies at 1183.50 – the target of a minor uptrend on the three-minute chart, where A=1167.70 (Friday, 10:33 a.m. EST). Day-traders should make entry using A-B impulse legs on the lesser charts that have surpassed look-to-the-left peaks, of which there are many.
No less than Comex Gold, Apple got shaken down on Friday by sleazeballs seeking to orchestrate value where normal market forces had failed to do the job. This suggests that any further, manipulated weakness is likely to go no lower than the 199.32 Hidden Pivot midpoint of the pattern shown. I’ll recommend bidding for 200 shares just above it, at 199.34, with a stop-loss at 199.19. This is easy enough to be a Pick of the Day, but because the margin requirement is much higher than if I’d suggested buying call options, I’m presenting it as a regular tout. _______ UPDATE (1:08 p.m. EST): The trade was stopped out for a nominal loss of around $30. The breach of the midpoint pivot implies more downside to at least 195.68, where bottom-fishing can be attemped again, stop 195.59.
The futures need only close above 18.650 to solidify Friday’s recovery thrust. That’s the Hidden Pivot midpoint of a pattern visible on the 30-minute chart projecting to 19.610. (A=-17.025 on November 13). Night owls can try tightly-stopped bottom-fishing near 18.005 provided 18.490 has not been exceeded to the upside.
An ageless target at 1113.00 that served us well early in November has shown more staying power than we might have expected. I hesitate to designate it as the Mother of All Bear-Rally Tops, however, because one can never be entirely certain about such things (even if one can trade them with almost zero risk). With neutral expectations at the bell on Monday morning, there is no compelling reason to look for camouflage opportunities either up or down. They will be present, to be sure, but it will be no easy task to extract more than a few points of profit from them. A pattern that I have illustrated in the accompanying chart could develop into something with tradable implications for Sunday night-owls.
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This Just In... for Monday
The zero-interest- rate environment engineered by the Fed has dark moral implications that are made starkly clear in a Mises Institute essay written by Sarel Oberholster: ”It is appropriate to ask by what standards society decides that a homeowner who bought a property priced beyond his means must be subsidized by a pensioner who had saved to survive the income drought of old age? Why must a big bank have access to zero or near-zero cost of funds to carry all those losses making loans while an ordinary saver can no longer afford his child’s tuition?” Click here to access the full essay, which deserves to be widely circulated.
From Duke’s partner Panos Pamukoglu, a note on the passing of financial journalist Mark Pittman, whose trenchant reporting on the Federal Reserve opened many eyes to the central bank’s shady ways:
The financial community has recently suffered the loss of a prominent journalist. He was young and had much to offer still. Mark Pittman, 52, an investigative reporter for Bllomberg News, passed away on November 25. His astute criticism of powerful personalities leveled the field and helped me see the men behind their image. He surely helped me open my eyes. His timely analysis and substantiated reports were instrumental in helping me to protect my financial well-being. Finally, he has been the only citizen who dared to confront and help Bloomberg sue the FED for full disclosure.
Thanks, Mark, for leading us. Let us honor your memory by working to get rid of the FED now. May you rest in peace.
The BBC’s Max Keiser has sent me a link to an interview he did that sounds some of the same themes that I emphasized in today’s commentary, ‘Gold Passes Stress Test of Dubai Panic’. His list of sovereign buyers of gold should bolster your confidence about the metal’s prospects. Click here to access the YouTube segment. If the link fails, simply paste the following into your browser search field:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSWSwhn-AWc
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on 6/30 - 7/1. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
Gold Passes ‘Stress Test’ of Dubai Panic
by Rick Ackerman on November 30, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 16 comments
Gold’s spectacular swoon on Friday provided fresh evidence that a red-hot bull market is in no imminent danger of cooling off. The initial plunge was orchestrated by bullion bankers and other promiscuous borrowers of gold when some unsettling financial news out of Dubai triggered a misbegotten panic into, of all things, dollars. Smelling blood, gold shorts pulled their bids when it looked as though the dollar was about to soar. Alas, the buck barely got off the launching pad before gravity re-asserted itself with a vengeance. The rally was so short-lived and feeble that it will have significantly diminished the dollar’s bizarre status » Read the full article