Comments on: Chuck Sees Stock Market, Gold Surging Higher

By: FranSix

FranSix — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:49:24 +0000

I think the point in watching Japanese markets would be the bull market in the Yen. But there’s another bull market which should be gatherin steam, and that’s Japanese long bond interest rates.

By: Pieter

Pieter — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 08:45:58 +0000

My last comment in this discussion. Even if there comes deflation, this will still be extremely bullish for gold. You already see the Dow going to 2500, houseprices going to an average of $60.000 and not a lot of buying and selling, this will create an enormous depression, everybody will be insecure, afraid of their jobs, profits of companies will plummet, jobs will be insecure etc. etc. This is deflation, it’s not the little deflation like in Japan, in Japan they didn’t have so much debt. So deflation means insecurity, stress, depression and only one thing that will keep it’s value, gold.

I saw an interesting documentary on Iceland. A guy was interviewed who had a house on a building site; after the crisis building seized. He said that about 40% of home owners borrowed money abroad for mortgages, 80% of the businesses borrowed abroad, everybody was buying big cars, buying stocks. So this guy seemed very wise but then they asked him ‘and your situation?’. He said he bought the house with 50% borrowed abroad and 50% borrowed in Iceland, it was now very difficult and it depended on how his stocks would do how his situation turned out………………………….. We just will be punished by how much we wanted to live for free……….

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Japan deflated even though it had one huge thing going for it that we do not: an insatiable U.S. consumer to keep its export business booming. RA

By: Pieter

Pieter — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 20:56:15 +0000

It’s only about one thing, trust, governments can not be trusted and money is only money because of the government. If more and more people don’t trust the government anymore it’s the beginning of the end for paper money, like so many times before and more and more people will start to trade paper money for, some, gold coins. — You’re naive, what you want to call it, if you don’t change a little of your money to gold coins. — This is the heart of the matter, it’s not about inflation or deflation. That doesn’t matter anymore when the house of cards breaks down. I agree that deflation seems the most logical scenario but with governments that will do anything to stop it there’s not a big chance, Bernanke; ‘any determined government can stop deflation by the use of the printing press or now it’s electronic equivalent that can produce almost infinite amounts of money’.

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We can be fairly certain Bernanke didn’t have hyperinflation in mind when he made that foolish statement. RA

By: gary leibowitz

gary leibowitz — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 20:18:33 +0000

A simpler reason why gold is rising is the same reason why all commodities are rising. The connection can’t be denied. Why has the eqities market run in step with gold, for the most part?

You can have a good stock market during inflationary times, not during deflation. I can only assume that the market is not expecting deflation to take hold, given that the last time it did was before most were ever born.

The real test will be when equities falls hard again. My money is on paper, not gold. In relative terms the world is just catching up with the problems we have already faced. That means the dollar strengthens agains most currencies and gold speculators get caught in a selling frenzy. We should see some wild swings soon.

By: FranSix

FranSix — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 21:36:11 +0000

Thank-you Pieter, but I have been watching the various explanations and theorizing as to why the gold price is rising, and its my belief that its monetary value has lagged its real value in terms of commodities for years, and that gold price rises are a result of adjustments to reflect the narrowing of the spread between the two, or that the gold price adjusts and firms with the deflationary trend in commodities. Of course, the aggregate currency would have to be falling against the level of debt as well as part of this fundamental.

That idea, by the way comes from probably the best source on the internet from somebody who has worked in bullion for years:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-14515.htm

By: j.boetsch

j.boetsch — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:10:37 +0000

what does QE stand.for?
J.B.

By: Pieter

Pieter — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 08:45:12 +0000

FranSix, what monetary value? The only monetary value IS GOLD. It can not be in a bubble against monetary value. You know why gold rises? Because people can’t be trusted and this goes especially for politicians and the government. And who controls the printing or digiting of money? The government and politicians….. Read George Orwell, Einstein, Churchill, Will Eisner, study history, it’s deceit after war after war after war. Gold is gold and it’s even practical when you use money that always can be changed in a gold equivalent, how it was even in the 1950’s and 60’s. In that way we can even use it in a digital age. But that’s for later, after the great turnaround…

By: FranSix

FranSix — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 23:47:58 +0000

I believe a deflation will set in, but the competitive QE will tend to slow that down. The gold price should not be considered in a bubble until its monetary value greatly exceeds its real value against commodities.

By: Pieter

Pieter — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:55:34 +0000

Very good piece. When I read the comments I can’t believe that some idiots still fall for that Elliotbathe bulls**t. I fell for it too a long time ago, believe me and help yourself, it’s bull-s**t. I do TA of course and cyclical analysis but only that works.

I am invested in ME for a few years now and will stay invested for a few years more. Got another stock for you, Eagle plains resources, they produce, have gradings of over 1 kg/t, yes a kg, —– drill hole: 10.67m to 11.58m 0.91m 2,397 g/t Au —– serious company, not a lot of stock. And they have a lot of projects… you will be amazed if you check them at their website.

By: corey

corey — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 20:17:50 +0000

If the scandals involving gold & silver suppression are brought to light, as well as capping the amounts the corrupt banks can short, then there is no wave that is going to be able to measure the move up!!