Historical data should not be ignored in economic/market extremes. The 30’s were a perfect example. Current conditions call for an even greater market reaction, including irrational behavior. We have gone higher and longer than the 30’s rebound but the end will be the same. Patience is needed.

I have had a target for what seems like forever in that the SPX will peak between 1140 and 1220. We have seasonality to consider and the fact that most terminal rallys usually end with a sustained and steep run-up for perhaps as much as one month. Is this run up the last one? I have my suspicions it isn’t. In fact there is a very good chance that if the market faulters in the next few weeks, it will be met with a dramatic rally.

Hindenburg Omens have a track record of almost 100 percent. In fact I can’t think of any recorded crash that didn’t have one prior to its demise.

The practice starting with BUSH and continuing today, is the worlds concerted effort to allow the dollor to fall. It has done wonders so far.

While current technicals are pretty horrendous for equities any correction will be met with a sharp rally, at least till the new year. Gold and most commodities are up for the same reason equities are; the fall in the dollar and expectations that that will result in hyper-inflation down the road has lifted all.

Just one mans opinion.

For some offroad surprises:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

The dollar looks pretty good compared to the Euro…

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Submitted on 2009/11/10 at 6:13pm
Insightful discussion of BRK, economy and WEB:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33797214
Rosie says $2750 gold and it makes headlines.
Pretty good sign of a top.
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/11/10/gold-at-2-750-an-ounce-heres-how-it-could-happen/print/

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71.142.205.47oSubmitted on 2009/11/10 at 6:16pm
Rosie [David Risenberg] says $2750 gold and it makes headlines.
Pretty good sign of a top.
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/11/10/gold-at-2-750-an-ounce-heres-how-it-could-happen/print/
richcash8@gmail.com

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Submitted on 2009/11/10 at 7:50pm
We like QID above 21.11 and SZK above 43.87.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-timer-throws-cold-water-on-rally-2009-11-10

One of the stock market timers I monitor who currently is quite bearish is Peter Eliades, editor of the Stockmarket Cycles advisory service. It is tied for second place for performance since October 2007, when the stock market reached its all-time high, having produced a 7.3% annualized gain. Over the same period, the stock market itself suffered a 14.7% annualized loss.

In an email to clients, following Monday’s 204-point rise in the Dow to a new recovery high, Eliades reviewed a number of technical reasons why the rally is on shaky ground. Three of the leading reasons are:

•Even after rallying so impressively in recent sessions, the stock market has merely made it back up to the downtrend line from the October 2007 high.

•The rally has come on progressively lower volume: “The market has now advanced for six consecutive days on a closing basis. Each of those days has seen lower volume than the preceding day except for today [Monday] which saw a slight increase in volume above Friday’s volume but was still below Thursday’s volume.”

•The Dow’s new high was “unconfirmed by virtually every other index or average. In fact, some of the indexes such as the Russell 2000 index of smaller cap stocks have performed very poorly on a relative basis compared to the Dow. The Russell 2000 actually reached its top on Sept. 23 and has now retraced just over 50% of the losses from that high. It is nowhere near either its September or its October high. The same is true for unweighted indexes, such as the Value Line Arithmetic and the Value Line Geometric.”

To be sure, Eliades concedes that he didn’t expect the market to rally as far as it has already. And continued strength could lead him to “completely change the market’s intermediate to longer-term outlook.”

In the meantime, though, he believes that Monday’s action was a “final fake-out move to the upside.”

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Peter is a friend whose work I have featured often at Rick’s Picks, although not recently. Like me, he is more or less a permabear, but his bias during the Great Bear Rally of 2009 has been more incipiently bearish than my own. He also follows a number of indicators, such as Hindenburg, that have been made obsolete by the the rally. I tend to categorically reject any indicator, particularly cyclical, that supposedly is saying something dramatic is about to happen. All such indicators have been wrong for too, too many years./em>. RA

IMF: What?

Bernanke: And be sure to use the word “overvalued”.

IMF: What?

Bernanke: Just do it.