A downside Hidden Pivot at 74.36 given here earlier is still usable as a minimum objective, although DXY doesn’t seem to be in any hurry to get there. Friday’s somewhat lackluster rally spike was impulsive on the intraday charts — with a little camouflage to boot — but the enthusiasm detumesced so quickly as to render the pattern moot. Ordinarily I’d say the interventionist are simply hanging out, waiting for the right opportunity to squeeze the buck higher. But the fact that there has been no intervention suggest the U.S. has not been able to garner the support it needs, at least not yet, to make a rally stick.
From the monthly archives:
November 2009
I drew a trendline a while back that showed a fearsome chasm opening up on the weekly chart, but it’s probably safe to draw a steeper line that will afford bulls an additional cushion if buyers should go derelict between now and year’s end. From a Hidden Pivot perspective, the outlook is heartening for the near term – tradable, even, by night owls, since a spear up to 18.675 has created a nice, but not too, impulse leg on the lowly five-minute chart. Points A and B are, respectively, 18.535 amd 18.675, but I’d suggest letting the first ‘X’ entry get stopped out before attempting entry.
Yesterday’s nasty little short squeeze recouped last Thursday’s air pocket, bracketing the intervening day (i.e., Friday) as an altogether gratuitous, and hardly atypical, swoon. The rally was ”camouflaged,” strictly speaking, because it vaulted a bunch of prior peaks without getting past the important one at 1112.25 recorded last Monday. That number was three ticks shy of a 1113.00 Hidden Pivot target we’d been using for too long, and it rounds out a picture that explains in graphical form how a market with zero bullish buying interest can keep going higher, and higher and….higher. I’ve got an 1138.00 rally target we can use if this tedium should continue, but I won’t show you how I derived it because I don’t want to encourage bad habits in my students.
The futures turned up tentatively after make a run at an 1155.00 downside target that was missed by $2.70. This is bullish as far as it goes, but it would take a print Monday night at 1168.90 to suggest that buyers are not terribly intimidated by the 1174.90 resistance pivot we’ve been using for so long. I’ve hung out a headline target at 1337.00 if it should get shredded, but I am not expecting this, at least not so soon after the lower pivot was achieved. Keep in mind as well that the futures could feint to 1185.50 without affecting the odds of a serious correction.
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(I have re-posted this link because the initial response was so heavy.) I have always expected the dollar’s collapse to happen in mere hours, not weeks or months. A blogger named John Galt has imagined how things will play out that day, and his scenario seems to me not merely plausible, but precisely inevitable. It would have bullish implications for commodity-based economies such as New Zealand’s, and this would seem to afford investors a relatively safe haven besides gold when the collapse comes to pass. Click here for Galt’s scary account of a stormy day that seems all but certain to arrive.
In the Rick’s Picks chat room, where the focus is sometimes obsessively on gold, the meaning of “long-term” can range anywhere from 90 minutes to about three hours. Small wonder, then, that whenever Comex precious-metal futures hit an air pocket and briefly plunge, the shock waves wash over the room like a tsunami. In fact, these fleeting episodes mean nothing, considering that the larger, bullish environment for gold contains more testosterone than a Chicago stockyard. Who needs to worry about what those nasty, retrograde bullion bankers, commercial traders and by-now impotent central banks are » Read the full article
Far from leading the market higher in its hour of need, Goldman has turned into the proverbial cement shoes, sinking whatever prospects remained for a year-end short-squeeze of the broad averages. The stock has had noticeable difficulty reaching even the Hidden Pivot midpoints of retracement rallies, and so we should now expect to see it achieve downside targets with consistency. The nearest lies at 168.33, and it can serve as a minimum downside objective for the near term. The 161.84 target of a larger pattern remains viable as well.
A key target at 1174.90 remains viable, but we’ll focus on a more conservative objective for now at 1155.60. That’s a Hidden Pivot, and it comes from the pattern shown in the accompanying chart. An easy move past it would activate another at 1158.20. These two numbers can be used by scalpers, but from an analytical standpoint any lack of resistance will confirm a swift finishing stroke to 1174.90.
Gold Can Impale Bears with a Leap Past $1174
by Rick Ackerman on November 24, 2009 3:35 am GMT · 1 comment
Having waited patiently since May for Comex Gold to reach an important target at 1174.90, we are naturally interested in what comes next, since the December contract peaked yesterday at exactly 1174.00. We say “peaked,” and while this is technically correct because a $16 selloff has ensued so far, that’s hardly enough pain to have sent gold bulls into fits of panic or despair. In fact, the selloff looks and feels like little more than a minor flutter in a bull market that presumably has much farther to go. Even so, we shall treat » Read the full article