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COMMENTARY for Wednesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Wednesday
Rick's Picks for Wednesday
Too bad December Gold couldn’t close above $1200, since it would have turned up the heat on the cabal that has been struggling in vain to hold prices down. They’ll have their hands full on Wednesday nonetheless, given the niggardly correction from Tuesday’s high, 1204.00. For now, let’s use a 1227.90 target that comes from the hourly chart (see inset). The midpoint support lies at 1181.80, so a pullback to that price should be used as a buying opportunity if there’s a minor reversal-rally pattern to leverage (i.e., “camouflage”).
We should relish kicking Goldman when it’s down, of course, but we should never turn our back on the little sonofabitch as long as it is still breathing. Which it is. The stock would need to print 173.64 today to earn our begrudging respect for the near term, since that would create a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. It would take a bit less — 172.11, to be exact — to do it on the five-minute chart, so let’s set an alert there to warn of a sneak attack. Traders please note that there is a dandy look-to-the-left peak to use for a camouflage entry, but if the trade triggers, be ready to enter on a buy-stop with zero hesitation.
Yesterday’s spike brought more visual symmetry to a pattern that projects to 19.625 (18.670 midpoint). It’s a compelling picture, and so we should expect the futures to pause for at least a day when they reach the target. If they blow past it in an hour instead, we should infer that bulls have a test of the $20 threshold in mind — and that they are likely to prevail.
Crude’s charts have been flagging for so long one might have forgotten that it’s in an uptrend. It is, though, and yesterday’s price action suggests it is not yet ready to break out for a run at $90, it’s next likely stop. If it were otherwise, the stab higher yesterday would have gone an extra two cents to exceed the external peak at 81.53 recorded on November 23. Pivoteers should note on the 60-minute chart that there are some small peaks near that one that could conceivably provide excellent camouflage for a long entry. FYI, you can try bottom-fishing the January contract at 77.79, stop 77. 70, day order. The relevant pattern is visible on the 5-minute chart. ______ UPDATE (77.20): The Hidden Pivot at 77.79 evinced no discernible support, so any attempt to bottom-fish there would have experienced a loss of around $90.
The futures followed our script yesterday, head-butting 11112 to no avail. Or perhaps to slight avail, since the action will have weakened resistance ahead of the breakout we’ve known all along was coming. It is a tired and brutally tiresome rally, moving from one level to the next when short interest has built up sufficiently to goose stocks to a higher plateau. Between rallies, downside feints have been entirely unpersuasive because institutional buying is the mindset right now, pending whatever horrific news it will take to get the money managers’ minds right. Most immediately, we should look for the next push to take this vehicle as high as 1152.75, a Hidden Pivot that comes from the 120-minute chart. It would get there sooner if Goldman were doing its job, but it looks like the market is about to drag Goldman higher rather than the other way around.
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This Just In... for Wednesday
The spotlight has been off Argentina for a while, but there is a new disaster taking shape there that is of a piece with the world’s still-toxic financial problems. Argentina’s problems are detailed in the latest report from Larry Amernick. To request a copy, click here.
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on 6/30 - 7/1. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
What to Look for as Gold ‘Juniors’ Take Off
by Rick Ackerman on December 2, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 11 comments
(We’ve heard from our friend Chuck Cohen again, and he’s as bullish as ever on the junior and exploration gold shares. Two stocks he likes look too overextended now to jump on, but there are many others that have yet to leave the launching pad. RA)
A seismic change is rapidly approaching in the junior and exploration gold shares. Many companies that appeared primed for liquidation just last November will be soon be ratcheting up in an unimaginable way. There remains an unusual amount of doubt and anxiety, as we saw in Friday’s air pocket in gold and silver. So why do I still feel so strongly about an explosive rise in the metal and shares? It’s a chart thing, specifically the recent price movements in two junior gold stocks, Romarco Minerals and Terrane Metals. Here’s » Read the full article