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COMMENTARY for Monday
TODAY'S ACTION for Monday
Rick's Picks for Monday
As of 9 p.m. EST Sunday, the February contract had not created any bullish impulse legs even on the lowly 5-minute chart, suggesting there is more selling to come. If so, look for the futures to grope their way down to a Hidden Pivot support at 1133.70 in search of traction. Alternatively, buyers would need to pop this vehicle to at least 1177.60 to regain the upper hand. The battle over the near term is likely to center around 1148.70, the midpoint sibling of the 1133.70 target.
Silver was under more aggressive selling than Gold Sunday night and looked bound for a minimum 18.040, a Hidden Pivot (HP) that you can bottom-fish with an 18.045 bid and a stop-loss of at least 3-4 ticks. If the stop is hit, though, expect the weakness to persist down to 17.895, an HP where you could try again.
The signs are a tad too murky for me to endorse bottom-fishing at 118^09, but that Hidden Pivot can serve for the time being as a minimum downside objective. If it gets trashed, however, the futures would be signaling more weakness over the near term to at least 117^10. You can bracket these two targets with two more possibilities nearby: 118^11/117^15,
The rally has surpassed just one “internal” peak on the daily chart so far, meaning that it is not yet impulsive at that level. However, because we should set a high bar to tell us if this turn is for real, we’ll use the 77.270 peak recorded in the first week of November (see chart). A rally that exceeds that number without pausing for breath would deserve our serious attention, since it would create a bullish leg of weekly-chart degree and — presumably — spell a lengthier stay in purgatory for gold and silver.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
This Just In... for Monday
There was a query in the chat room concerning the latest COT. This is Rich Cash’s specialty, including trading recommendations, and if you click here you can access his latest “Big Four” report.
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Phony Data Won’t Weigh on Gold for Long
by Rick Ackerman on December 7, 2009 4:50 am GMT · 7 comments
Let’s see if we’ve got this right: Traders pummeled gold on Friday, sending it down $66 an ounce, because unemployment reportedly downticked to 10 percent, implying the U.S. economy is strengthening, which would be bullish for the U.S. dollar, which would be bearish for gold. That’s the theory of it, anyway – and never mind the fact that no one in America outside of newsrooms even remotely believes whatever unemployment statistic the Labor Department concocts from one month to the next; and even less do they believe it when said statistic purports to show that the economy is improving. Wall Street pros pretended to believe it, though — for just long enough to short-squeeze bears at the opening » Read the full article