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COMMENTARY for Thursday
TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday
Rick's Picks for Thursday
Gold futures continued along their tortuous path lower yesterday, far from invincible, but nonetheless defiant. The nearest Hidden Pivot support of significance is 1103.50, but lesser patterns promised relatively low-risk bottom-fishing opportunities above it. My suggestion is that you use ‘p’ midpoints to do so — most aggressively when the patterns that have produced them evince the gentle arc of the one shown in the chart. Best possibility as of 9:30 p.m. EST would come on a swoon down to 1122.00. Bulls can get excited if a rally exceeds 1154.50 0vernight or Thursday morning, since that would create a quite bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. _______ UPDATE (9:44 a.m. EST): Using the 1122.00 pivot flagged above would have caught the best trading opportunity of the day, since the futures bounced $11.50 from a 1121.80 low. The bottom occurred at around 6:20 a.m. If you caught the ride, treat yourself to a Havana — or your parrots to some of that fancy Cuban bird seed.
The futures were bound for a Hidden Pivot rally target at 1102.75 early Wednesday evening, having exceeded its midpoint sibling at 1098.25 by a decisive 1.00 point. A minor rally top at that price would hold no particular opportunities for us thereupon, nor does the implied 4.50-point thrust from current levels deserve more than passing attention from those unwilling to cast themselves into the fray of illiquidity, nefarious intentions and general sordidness that characterize night trading. It would be at exactly 1112.50 that bulls will be signaling their return to limited power, since that would exceed the subtle look-to-the-left peak labeled in the accompanying chart.
It is the boldness with which DXY traverses the space shown in the accompanying chart by which we should judge the mettle of this rally, assuming the dollar achieves the modest heights indicated. Penetration of both peaks with no intervening B-C pause would be strong evidence that the bull is about to rampage and that the current, somewhat subdued short-squeeze has bigger things in mind. Thus far, though, the rally, such as it is, suggests that carry-trading shorts are not exactly panicked, at least not yet.
A Hidden Pivot at 428.50 is my minimum downside target for the near-term, and you could bottom-fish there aggressively with a tight stop-loss if the Gold Bugs Index takes the implied dive. If the support is exceeded by more than a point, though, expect the weakness to continue to at least 416.43 (which can also be bottom-fished). Alternatively, it would be very bullish if HUI aborts the downtrend and prints above 471.74 today or tomorrow.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
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The Healthcare Bill That Just Won’t Die
by Rick Ackerman on December 10, 2009 2:12 am GMT · 24 comments
As the disastrous health-care bill winds its way through a morally and ethically bankrupt Congress, the process has come more and more to resemble Mr. Obama’s campaign itself. Who would have thought that a rookie Senator with the left-most voting record in Congress and the middle name “Hussein” would eventually triumph over Hillary’s well-oiled, seemingly invincible political machine? Well, he did, and in the end, most voters seemed not to have cared that Barack Obama’s Rolodex was filled with the names of campus radicals (including that of Bill Ayers, the unapologetic bomber) ; that his spiritual mentor » Read the full article