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COMMENTARY for Friday
TODAY'S ACTION for Friday
Rick's Picks for Friday
I took my eye off the ball briefly when an abortive rally Wednesday night threatened to disrupt a promised pullback to at least 1090.20, but that’s still the number to watch. There’s another HP support near there, as well as the trendline support shown in the accompanying chart. A breach shouldn’t be viewed as fatal, and in fact we’ll be on the alert for signs of a devious breakdown, since nothing has changed to fundamentally undermine the bullish case for gold. Most immediately, the futures would need to pop to 1123.90 today to get back on a bullish track.
Dueling impulse legs on the intraday charts constitute a mixed signal that makes Silver look slightly more bullish than gold at the moment. We can use a Hidden Pivot at 16.800 as a minimum downside target for now while stipulating that it will take a pop today or tomorrow to at least 17.915 or better to turn the lesser charts unambiguously bullish.
The rally from a 162.11 pivot was fun while it lasted, but the stock has now relapsed and looks bound for a minimum 157.37. This Hidden Pivot has low value for trading purposes, however, because it roughly coincides with some important lows recorded back in August. A bigger picture projects 153.13, which would be the death knell for Goldman, cracking a series of supports that took most of last summer to construct.
When the December options expire today we’ll hold 800 shares with a cost basis of $12.90 against eight January 17 calls shorted for 0.80. Although the calls are likely to expire worthless, further lowering our cost basis, they’d be worth covering right now if we could get them in for 0.15. Accordingly, I’ll suggest bidding 0.15 to close, good for the day. If the stock slips below 14.50, however, lower the bid to 0.10 and leave it in through Monday.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
This Just In... for Friday
Over at National Review Online, here’san interesting note on Bernanke’s confirmation from, of all people, Larry Kudlow:
The Senate Banking Committee voted 16 to 7 to reconfirm Ben Bernanke today. That’s nothing to brag about, and with the reconfirmation vote now headed to the Senate floor, I think Bernanke could be in trouble. Over on my NRO blog, I write: “I’m going to bet that most of the 40 Republicans will vote against him, and that they will be joined by a number of Democrats. If Bernanke were to be opposed by as many as 35 or 40 votes, it would substantially undermine his credibility.” This leads me to wonder whether Helicopter Ben should withdraw his name.
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
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Healthcare Cliffhanger Is Great Entertainment
by Rick Ackerman on December 18, 2009 3:23 am GMT · 24 comments
The healthcare circus on Capitol Hill continues to amuse, delight and entertain as Republicans maneuver to delay the alleged “reform” in every possible way. Pelosi thinks the GOP’s “mischaracterization” of the legislative package is what has been obstructing its passage. In fact, were it not overwhelmingly obvious that a solid majority of Americans fear, despise and oppose this legislative turd, the Senate’s 39 Republicans wouldn’t have had a prayer of stalling it for an hour, let alone for days or weeks. Now it now looks as » Read the full article