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COMMENTARY for Tuesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Wednesday
Rick's Picks for Wednesday
Shortly after 8 p.m., the futures were struggling to find traction at 1091.30, the very tradable Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart. They’d need to rebound to at least 1110.60 on Wednesday to turn the momentum in bulls’ favor; otherwise a 1046.80 target will be in play, along with another at 1028 that comes from a larger pattern identified here earlier.
We bought two January 230 calls yesterday for 1.00 and have bids in for four more: two @ 0.52, and two @ 0.42, both good through Thursday. This is a speculative bet on the prospect of a Big Rally kicking off the New Year. This seems plausible if not likely, but if it does occur, you can bet that AAPL shares will lead the charge. I expect the stock to regain traction, though not to explode higher, by week’s end.
Bulls dominated yesterday, although it’s curious that they couldn’t muster just a little more thrust to take out the 77.99 external peak I’d flagged as a bullish trigger point. This feat seems likely to be achieved today, which would square with my current, dour forecast for gold. The nearest important Hidden Pivot resistance above lies at 78.25, and it can serve as our minimum upside target for the near term. If DXY exceeds this number on a closing basis, though, it would be hinting of more upside to at least 79.18.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
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Is Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Exaggerated?
by Rick Ackerman on December 29, 2009 2:36 am GMT · 40 comments
We usually think of America as a has-been in manufacturing, so the graph below may come as a surprise to some readers. It was sent to us by our friend Brad, who likes to play devil’s advocate whenever we go over-the-top with some outlandishly bearish prediction about the economy. The graph itself accompanied a recent article in National Affairs, “Keeping America’s Edge,” by Jim Manzi. America’s apparent decline in manufacturing is a claim that has been repeated so often that few would think to challenge it. The U.S. used to make real “stuff,” according to this argument, but now it no longer does. What this graph shows, according to comments at Manzi’s blog, “is that this claim is at best » Read the full article