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From the monthly archives:
January 2010
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If Apple falls to 195.32 with two hours or more left in the session, buy a round lot there, stop 195.04. I’ll update my guidance if the order fills and survives for at least an hour. _______ UPDATE: Apple crushed the pivot, falling to 194.10 and stopping us out for a nominal loss of at least $28. This implied more downside over the near term, although there were no compelling Hidden Pivot targets to offer.
My short-term outlook calls for perhaps another 2-3 days of corrective action before the futures attempt to take on resistance just above 119. If in the meantime they pull back to 117^31 without have exceeded 118^23 to the upside first, bid for a single contract at that price, stop 117^28. _______ UPDATE: Bids at 117^31 would have been stopped out for a loss of $100 plus slippage, since the futures groped their way down to 117^23 before finding a temporary bottom. The breach of the midpoint support is a bearish sign for the near term and suggests that more corrective action is likely.
Yesterday’s slight breach of the targeted bottoming range implies more weakness ahead. However, there are three places where the futures could turn and perhaps even reverse the downtrend: at 1078.50, 1071.60, or 1069.50. The first and last of these numbers can be bottom-fished with a tight stop-loss, but a breach of the lowest would shorten the odds of a downdraft to 1039.20., a key Hidden Pivot flagged here earlier.
There is carnage on the daily chart that has yet to be confirmed by Gold, and it would grow far worse with just 20 cents of additional slippage beneath Thursday’s low. That would extend the bearish impulse leg begun ten days ago past a second “external” low at 15.835 recorded back in September, increasing the potential power and longevity of the move. My immediate downside target is 15.745, subject to last-ditch support at its sibling midpoint, 16.035. Alternatively, it would take a thrust above 16.785 today to turn the hourly chart unambiguously bullish.
The futures were breaking down around 1 a.m. EST, bound for a Hidden Pivot support at 1061.25 after having trounced a midpoint pivot at 1075.00. There was one additional, minor support at 1066.50, but it is only at the lower number where I’d suggest bottom-fishing with a stop-loss at 1060.25. If DaBoyz are preparing to spring a bear trap, it would clamp shut with a push above 1083.75.
If you have not yet seen the documentary ‘Food, Inc.,” we strongly recommend that you rent it soon. It will not only change the way you eat, but the way you shop for groceries. Without sensationalizing the facts, the film builds a powerful case against agribusiness and its major players, just a few of whom control what we eat. It traces the rise of agribusiness to the explosive growth of fast food restaurants in the 1950s. McDonald’s, for one, became such a large purchaser of beef that the company almost single-handedly reshaped the meat-packing industry. Because only the very largest suppliers could meet demand from » Read the full article
My immediate target is still 79.05, but if that Hidden Pivot should be exceeded by more than 0.05-0.07 points, look for more upside to at least 79.40. That would obviously put downward pressure on silver and gold, but the latter would be an enticing speculative buy if the Feburary Comex contract happens to be trading at that time in the corrective target range noted in today’s Gold tout. One more note: If DXY closes above 79.40, brace for a finishing stroke to 79.90. _______ UPDATE (11:52 a.m. EST): DXY popped to within 0.02 points of the 79.05 target on the opening and then receded, presumably to recharge for the next thrust. The move created an additional target at 79.49 that may run into midpoint resistance at 79.12.
Time for Inflationists to Put Up or Shut Up
by Rick Ackerman on January 31, 2010 9:21 pm GMT · 49 comments
As “dead” money continues to pile up in the form of unborrowed bank reserves, we’ve grown increasingly skeptical about the possibility of an inflationary spiral. Hyperinflation seems inevitable somewhere down the road, but what about now, as real estate deflation continues to asphyxiate the U.S. economy? To all who have continued to insist that the Fed would not “allow” a deflation to occur, we say once again: Look around you. Even those two intractable engines of inflation – college tuition and health care – appear, finally, to be slowing down. Moreover, an even more powerful source of inflation — government spending – has begun to decelerate with the lethal speed of a crash dummy. Yes, the party » Read the full article