Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
COMMENTARY for Thursday
TODAY'S ACTION for Friday
Rick's Picks for Friday
Brace for more weakness, since it looks like the futures are about to fall to at least 1075.40 over the near term, or perhaps to 1068.00 if any lower. The latter number, a Hidden Pivot, looks pretty compelling on the 240-minute chart that I’ve included. Alternatively, it would take a pop today to 1107.00 to turn the lowly one-minute chart bullish. That would exceed a very subtle look-to-the-left peak recorded yesterday morning on the way down.
This is the nastiest break we’ve seen in two months, and we should treat it as though it were a possible resumption of the Mother of All Bears. The low of yesterday’s plunge slightly exceeded a 0.618 retracement of the rally leg begun in mid-December, creating a bearish impulse leg on the 240-minute chart in the process. This is doubly bearish and suggests the selling has yet to even warm up. There are no useful Hidden Pivot targets that I can offer you at the moment, but I’d suggest using 1139.25 on the 240-minute chart for a point ‘A’ when the down-pattern now evolving develops a usable corrective rally.
We’ll use a cost basis of 0.72 for the two March 44 puts that I recommended buying yesterday. They opened at 0.75, but the underlying stock was a tad shy of our 46.04 rally target at the time. (The intraday low on the puts was 0.68.) Now, offer two March 39 puts (QQQOM) short for 0.77 apiece, good-till-canceled. If successful, we’ll hold two bearish put spreads with the potential to produce a gain of as much as $1000 with no possible loss.
With Google helping lead the market lower, we should pay attention to a 542.61 Hidden Pivot support that could temporarily arrest the stock’s fall. That’s my minimum downside objective for now, and it lies exactly $6.39 beneath yesterday’s shell-shocked low.
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on Feb. 29th - Mar. 1st. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
Lower Lows Coming in Gold
by Rick Ackerman on January 21, 2010 12:55 am GMT · 6 comments
A forecast for Comex Gold sent out to subscribers Monday night came within a dime of nailing the low of yesterday’s $33 plunge. That’s the good news, and some subscribers evidently were able to make hay with the prediction. The bad news is that it looks doubtful that the 1106.80 print that marked the February contract’s intraday low will hold, given the recent strength in the U.S. dollar. You can see how powerful the greenback’s uptrend is in the chart, below, of the NYBOT Dollar Index. Yesterday the index scored its most » Read the full article