Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
COMMENTARY for Thursday
TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday
Rick's Picks for Thursday
With whacky swings intraday, the futures have so far resisted the magnetic pull of a 1014.20 downside target given here earlier. They could shoot up to 1085.10 today, or even as high as 1102.40, if this condition persists. However, if sellers return in force, the first place we could try bottom-fishing aggressively would be 1042.80, the Hidden Pivot midpoint of the pattern shown in the chart. _______ UPDATE (1:22 a.m. EST): Although the dollar was getting whacked early Thursday morning, Gold was not reciprocating. Bullion seems likely to win this showdown, but it is evidently going to take more than the 0.32-point drop that has occurred so far tonight in the Dollar Index (DXY) to stoke the requisite buying. ______ FURTHER UPDATE (3:06 p.m. EST): 1102.40, here we come! This Hidden Pivot target was not proffered as a great place to get short, but rather as a bullish price objective to buck up anyone thinking about getting long on the way up. The pattern itself is a rule-breaker, as I’ve tried to make clear, and the target is therefore not a high-odds place to jump in the way.
If the futures are unable to slither above Tuesday’s 1077.00 high — a coin-toss bet, as far as I can tell – look for a selloff to at least 1048.25, a midpoint support that can be bought with a stop-loss as tight as 1.00 point. A close below it would hint of more weakness over the near term to as low as 1019.50, a Hidden Pivot. Alternatively, an upthrust can be expected to reach 1080.25 before buyers are seriously challenged. _______ UPDATE (3:40 p.m. EST): With 20 minutes left in the session, the futures have gotten as high as 1078.00, leaving just a little bit more upside relative to our 1080.25 target. If it gives way easily, that would telegraph more strength to a least 1092.50.
Bid 0.05 for a February 27 call to neutralize the risk of the February 29 call that we shorted a while back for 0.60. We also hold a round lot of stock for 11.01 and a March 24 put acquired for 0.65. No further action is required. ______ UPDATE: We bought the call for 0.05, the low of the day, when it traded at that price on the opening. Imputing the 0.55-cent gain to the cost of the put we still hold lowers its cost basis to 0.10. We also now have a vertical call spread, Feb 27- Feb 29, – that amounts to a free lottery ticket with a $200 prize if Akamai should soar between now and February 19. _______ FURTHER UPDATE: The spread went out worthless, and so we now hold a round lot of stock with an imputed cost basis of 11.11.
Crude looks bound for 76.13, a Hidden Pivot target that can be shorted with a stop-loss risking no more than 3-4 ticks. The gnarly pattern associated with this target looks like a winner to me, and that’s why I think we can get away with a stop-loss much tighter than the 21 (or so) cents this vehicle usually requires. If you are looking to catch a ride north, watch for camouflage opportunities on a pullback to around 74.36, the midpoint pivot associated with the rally target. _______ UPDATE: 75.69 is as high as the futures got on the last run-up. The target is still valid, though not quite as appealing, so I’ll recommend canceling the order.
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on Feb. 29th - Mar. 1st. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
A Cautious Bernanke Finally Gets It Right
by Rick Ackerman on February 11, 2010 2:48 am GMT · 27 comments
The stock market often swings wildly on insignificant news, but yesterday Wall Street appears finally to have taken some real news in stride, flatlining in response to one of the most delicately and judiciously worded speeches we’ve heard from Mr. Bernanke since he took office. The Fed chairman was addressing perhaps the most crucial economic topic of them all — namely, how the Fed plans to wean the financial system off easy credit in the wake of the most spectacular monetary blowout in U.S. history. Turns out, he does have a plan. And although we have rarely given Mr. Bernanke a passing grade for anything he » Read the full article