The last three weeks’ price action has turned an uptrend begun in mid-January to slop, but we can use a print at 80.74 to alert us to a potentially meaningful “booster” rally. Alternatively, a decisive breach of 80.24, a Hidden Pivot support, would be warning of weakness creeping into the short-term picture. _______ UPDATE (10:51 a.m. EST): DXY has tagged both of our numbers today, alerting us to the dollar’s schizophrenia, if little else. The dominant trend remains bullish nonetheless and points to 81.78 over the near term. Midpoint resistance at 80.98 would have to be overcome first.
From the monthly archives:
February 2010
For night owls, a midpoint support at 16.110 looks compelling as a place to try bottom-fishing. This Hidden Pivot is equivalent to the one noted in today’s gold tout, and it comes with the same caveat. A decisive breach would imply more immediate downside to as low as 15.920. Alternatively, it would take a pop today above 16.970 to turn the hourly chart into a cannon. ______ UPDATE (10:46 a.m.EST): Support at 16.110 proved neither precise nor durable, although the pivot was central to an overnight distribution that took two hours to play out. The relapse has sent the futures down to as low as 15.785 so far this morning, bringing into focus a 15.415 target. On a 180-minute chart, that is the midpoint support associated with A=16.950 (Feb 3).
Gold looks so comfortable going bouncy-bouncy off $1100 that one might think its bullion-banker enemies had gone quiet for the moment. An 1148.70 rally target given here earlier remains viable, but if the move doesn’t come soon — say, within the next day or two — buyers may need to pull back below 1098.10 (aka point ‘C’) to develop thrust. Night owls can try bottom-fishing at 1109.50 with a very tight stop-loss, but this midpoint support looks a tad too close to Monday’s low to be considered a high-confidence support. A breach would imply more downside to 1101.60. _______ UPDATE (10:40 a.m. EST): The futures are in a so-far weak bounce after sinking overnight to 1101.50, a dime from our target.
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As the hourly chart (see inset) shows, an upthrust exceeding 424.17 today would be just the thing to re-energize the so-far corrective rally from 363. HUI is already on track to hit 434.25, provided it doesn’t dip below 406.75 first and it can get past 420.50, the target’s midpoint sibling. Please note as well that last week’s top occurred almost precisely at the halfway point of the decline from January 11’s high. This suggests that we should look for resistance at 432.51, the 0.618 line, in addition to the expected pullback from 434.25.
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We hold seven April 42 puts for an average 1.05, and a March 44 put for 0.23. If the QQQs are selling for 45.19 or higher ten minutes before the close, exit the position at-the-market.
After having missed an 81.56 rally target by just 0.22 points, the Dollar Index has plunged by nearly a full point. The pullback would become bearishly impulsive on the hourly chart if it hits 80.18 today, but there’s no point drawing any conclusions until that happens. The decline has already exceeded 50% of the rally from last Wednesday’s low, but support at 80.24, where 0.618 Fibo line comes into play, remains to be tested.
A Hidden Pivot resistance at 16.795 is equivalent to the 1148.70 target given today for April Gold. Its midpoint sibling lies at 16.235, and so a pullback to that number, if it comes, could be the best buying opportunity ahead of the push. Keep in mind that the rally would need to go somewhat higher, surpassing a key peak at 16.950 recorded on February 3, to refresh the bull trend on the hourly chart.
Why Pick on Greece?
by Rick Ackerman on February 23, 2010 5:02 am GMT · 3 comments
Here’s a fine example of unintentional irony, from atop the front page of Monday’s Wall Street Journal: “Debt Deals Haunt Europe”. And the sub-heading: “Investors Re-Examine Complex Financial Maneuvers Used to Hide Borrowings”. As you might expect, the story was all about Greece and the so-called PIIGS – Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain. But it could just as easily have been written about the U.S. or a dozen other large countries that have somehow retained their AAA credit ratings despite having borrowed sums too large to ever repay. And let’s not overlook the fact that there are a few U.S. states – California, » Read the full article