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COMMENTARY for Thursday
TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday
Rick's Picks for Thursday
As the oil price was rising through the $81.00 level mentioned in yesterday’s tout, it was also breaking through the midpoint of an hourly pattern that had developed overnight. But this came after a 25-cent bounce off of that exact midpoint, which gives us high confidence in the pattern. Unlike the D target described yesterday, which hovers just below the 17-month high, this one, at 82.13, is truly hidden “in the middle of nowhere.” (Note: Yesterday we understated the 17-month figure by two months.)
Yesterday’s thrust petered out after poking an inch above the 1144.50 benchmark we’d been using as a minimum upside target. The action was bullish on balance, but there is still work to be done if buyers are going to take charge. As noted here yesterday, a close above 1144.50 is needed, at least, but just as persuasive would be a push today that surpasses a key high at 1148.00 that was recorded on January 14. The nearest minor Hidden Pivot resistance lies at 1156.90, so let’s make that our minimum upside objective if and when gold moves decisively above 1144.50.
The futures were drifting lower without much conviction Wednesday night, presumably bound for a minor Hidden Pivot at 1112.75. This number is unappealing for bottom-fishing, however, since it coincides with visually obvious support carved out earlier this week in overnight trading. The odds would be better leveraging camouflage near 1110.75, the Hidden Pivot midpoint associated with the 1137.25 rally target given here yesterday.
The rally is closing on a Hidden Pivot target at 437.33 that seems likely to show some stopping power. If it doesn’t, bulls should take encouragement – the moreso if the rally goes on to take out two peaks at, respectively, 443.13 and 453.12. If the space between those numbers should be traversed without a pullback on the hourly chart, expect a test shortly thereafter of January 11’s key high at 475.32.
The price of copper jumped on Sunday night in response to the earthquake news from Chile, leaving a large gap that was filled on Tuesday with one tick to spare. From there it rallied back toward the Sunday high, without pausing at the midpoint of the emerging pattern. The D target of 3.6110, entailed by the midpoint breach, would be a level not seen since August 2008.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
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Wall Street Parties as Great Cities Fail
by Rick Ackerman on March 4, 2010 6:09 am GMT · 12 comments
With the Mother of All Bear Rallies about to enter its second year and the banking business going like gangbusters, one could lose sight of the fact that quite a few American cities, counties and states are facing the most dire economic circumstances since the Great Depression. San Francisco became the latest casualty of hard times when it put more than 15,000 of its 26,000 workers on notice that they will be laid off at the end of this week. Most supposedly will have the option of being rehired to work shortened hours, but they will not be returning to the same jobs. For one, employees with many years on the job will » Read the full article