Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
COMMENTARY for Monday
TODAY'S ACTION for Monday
Rick's Picks for Monday
Friday’s phony spike should have trapped enough bulls to spark more than the feeble 12-point selloff that we saw. That the downtrend didn’t even reach its ‘p’ midpoint is a reason for bears not to get their hopes too high about a major top being in. This should pose no problem for those who shorted Friday’s high on my advice, since, in an intraday update, I recommended taking partial profits at what turned out to be the intraday low. Officially, and adjusted for partial gains realized thus far, we are short two contracts with an 1171.00 basis. Use an 1153.75 stop-loss for one of them until 1144.00 it touched, switching to a five-point trailing stop thereafter. The other contract is to be held for a possible home run and stopped above Friday’s high, 1159.50. _______ UPDATE (3:00 p.m. EST): On a sloppy, turgid, tediously trendless day, the futures have triggered a stop at 1146.25 off an 1141.25 low. Imputing the implied 13-point gain to the remaining single contract that we are still short will raise its cost basis to 1184.00. At current prices, that represents a paper gain of $1900. ______ FURTHER UPDATE (3:04 p.m. EST): Since the March contract expires this week, let’s roll the position, covering the March conract(s) while shorting the June contract(s) for a debit of up to 4.50 points.
Nothing has altered that 1095.50 downside target, including the nasty, $18 head-fake that followed Thursday’s lows. You can bottom-fish with a 1094.70 stop-loss, but if it’s hit, the secondary target at 1092.00 flagged here Friday will be in play. You could bottom-fish that Hidden Pivot as well with a 1092.20 bid, stop 1090.80. The earlier in the session the second target is hit, the more likely it is to produce a tradable low. Alternatively, the futures would need to pop today to at least 1113.40 to turn the lowly five-minute chart bullish.
If weak pivot support at 17.035 fails, the futures are likey to test a stronger one at 16.935 that you could bottom-fish with a three-tick stop-loss. Please note that a close below that number would be a warning of a possible fall over the near term to as low as 16.520. Alternatively, it would take a rally today exceeding 17.185 to turn the very lesser charts (i.e., up to the level of the 5-minute) positive.
Friday’s low at 79.69 fell a tad shy pf a 79.42 downside target that comes from the hourly chart. We’ll make it our minimum objective for now, but any lower would be warning of a washout down to the February low at 78.68
Two strong uptrends are at work right now, both of them visible on the hourly chart (see inset). The larger projects to 119^04, the smaller to 119^14, and their respective midpoints lie at 117^21 and 116^26. The lower midpoint has already given way, implying that we should use the other, 117^21, as a minimum upside target for the near term. A close above it would hint of more strength to at least 119^04.
An attractive intraday pattern in the ten-year Treasury notes might offer a shorting opportunity at its D target of 117^15, which is just above the midpoint of an emerging pattern on the daily chart. Traders should short at 117^13 with a stop at 117^17, risking $125. The daily pattern begins at 115^14.5; the intraday pattern is shown in the attached chart. If the C point of 116^24.5 is revisited, cancel the trade. _______ UPDATE: The futures went lower, negating the trade. (Posted by Doug McLagan)
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
This Just In... for Monday
From the Associated Press, the latest development concerning James Sikes’ alleged 94 mph thrill ride:
SAN DIEGO — Toyota is casting doubt on a man’s claim that his Prius sped out of control, saying that his report is inconsistent with findings of the company’s preliminary investigation.Toyota says the accelerator pedal was tested and found to be working normally and a backup safety system worked properly.
The automaker says the front brakes showed severe wear and damage from overheating but the rear brakes and parking brake were in good condition.
James Sikes says his car raced to 94 mph (150 kph) on a freeway near San Diego last week. The March 8 incident ended when Sikes stopped the car with help from a California Highway Patrol officer.
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on Feb. 29th - Mar. 1st. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
Reversal Day a Rare Delight for Bears
by Rick Ackerman on March 15, 2010 12:01 am GMT · 2 comments
Having faded Friday’s high in the index futures, we’ll be short the S&Ps when the stock market opens Monday morning. Is The Top in? It seems unlikely, given that the bear rally is entering its thirteenth month and acting like it’s about to get second wind. Still, it never hurts to keep trying to pick the top, especially when it’s possible to so without risking an arm and a leg. Here’s the trade recommendation exactly as it went out to Rick’s Picks subscribers Thursday night. “Let’s plan on shorting [the E-Mini S&P at] 1159.25 with a two-point stop-loss. I don’t usually favor patterns so very elongated as the one shown in the chart, but the two rally legs are sufficiently similar in appearance to beckon a modest, $100 speculation. This being a Friday, and Mr Market being, always, a sonofabitch, we might expect the target to be hit in the final 90 seconds of the session. My advice is to take the trade » Read the full article