Friday’s sharp decline in the oil price kicked off a pattern which projects to three-week lows, just as the Commitments of Traders report informs us that the commercials have built up their short holdings substantially.  Traders should look for a smaller bearish pattern to emerge, possibly from the grey “A” marked on the attached chart, to enable a low-risk short entry.  Another possibility might come from a bounce from just above the midpoint pivot of the main pattern, at 79.97, creating the appearance of support and thus providing camouflage.  Traders who are unable (or unwilling) to get short should consider buying the “D” target of 78.80 with a bid at 78.82 and a stop at 78.66, risking a hypothetical $160.  (Posted by Doug McLagan)  _______ UPDATE (09:25 a.m.):  Traders who found a way to get short have been rewarded with a drop to 78.86 thus far.  That is four ticks above our recommended long entry, and with the subsequent bounce, we think it’s time to invoke the “no sloppy seconds” rule and cancel the order to buy at 78.82.