Gold has been screwing the pooch since Christmas, really, and there is therefore no point in getting worked up about intraday swings of $20 or less — especially when they fail to create fresh bullish or bearish impulse legs on the hourly chart. Today, that would require, respectively, a print at either 1127.00 or 1088.40. Bulls looking for something subtler, albeit riskier, can infer a breakout at 1108.90, since that’s where the 3-minute chart would turn positive. _______ UPDATE: The April contract has dipped below 1088.40, creating a bearish inmpulse leg on the daily chart. Although I am not inferring any significant weakness at this point, neither does it portend an imminent rally to new all-time highs. What gold is telling us is that, even though there is good supportive buying underneath, a period of consolidation lies ahead. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gold trading a month from now about where it is today. Most immediately, the futures appeared bound for a minimum 1073.20.
We’ve enjoyed one heckuva ride from Monday’s exact low, and the single contract we still hold is showing a theoretical gain of more than $2,800 at these levels. The futures took off yesterday after narrowly missing the 1157.25 stop-loss I’d advised, and they never looked back. Now, the 1175.75 rally target we’ve been using not only remains viable, it will be an enticing place to reverse our long position and go short. However, you should use a “dynamic trailing stop” between here to the target, shrinking the original four-point trailing stop so that you are never risking more than a third of what you stand to gain if the futures reach our target. Based on a so-far high for this rally of 1170.50, that means your trailing stop should be no wider than about 2.00 points. If shorting at 1175.75, which I am explicitly recommending, use some of your profits to cushion a relatively loose initial stop-loss at 1177.25. ______ UPDATE: Using the shrinking trailing stop advised, we exited at 1168.00 for a theoretical gain of $2750. I am surprised the futures were unable to muster the modest finishing stroke to the 1175.75 target. As always, however, they seem even more unable to weaken significantly.
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IWM, the Russell 2000 ETF, is approaching a shortable “D” target at 70.67 based on the weekly chart. Traders should sell short at 70.56 with a stop at 70.86, risking $30 per 100 shares traded. Please note that these levels have been adjusted from those mentioned initially in the chat room on Monday. (Posted by Doug McLagan) ________ UPDATE (2:58 a.m. EST, March 31): This tout is no longer active. It was replaced on March 31.
Goldman’s spectacular bear rally is within striking distance of regenerating itself, since all it would take to create a quite potent impulse leg on the daily chart would be a $3.23 rally above Friday’s highs. Meanwhile, a mere 55-center above the peak would meet the minimum requirement of surpassing one “internal” and one “external” high. With the financial stocks in gear, the nearly 13-month-old bear squeeze would be in good shape to continue through Spring. Actually, if the stock breaks out in the manner shown in the chart, it could get to 206.80 – a 17 percent move from these levels — in a hurry.
Yesterday’s thrust created a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart, although the requisite pullback will need to come down to at least 80.52 to recharge DXY for another rally. Once that occurs, the Dollar Index will be in position to push up to as high as 82.09 over the near term.
Silver was showing even more pluck than Gold Monday night, gently impulsing above the day’s highs in thin trading. The after-hours peak so far as been 17.000, but if bulls can pop the futures decisively above a midpoint resistance at 17.005, a finishing stroke to the 17.125 ‘D’ sibling of that Hidden Pivot would become likely.
Because yesterday’s buy recommendation caught the overnight low to the exact tick, we ended the day long a single contract whose cost basis has been reduced by profit-taking to 1113.00. Those who initiated the trade on a single contract were advised to exit earlier at 1160.25, producing a theoretical gain of $650 on a day trade. For now, continue to use an 1175.75 target, one-cancels-the-other, with a stop-loss at 1157.25. If the futures hit 1166.00, implement a 4-point trailing stop.
We Applaud Google for Defying Beijing
by Rick Ackerman on March 24, 2010 12:01 am GMT · 23 comments
All due praise to Google, which has put principle above money by refusing to censor search results in China. We can’t recall the last time an American company publically took the high road, ethically and morally speaking – especially when billions of dollars of potential revenues were at stake as they are in this case. More often, we read about bribery scandals abroad and cynically assume it’s the cost of doing business in the ethical swamps that lie outside of Europe, Canada and Japan. China is much worse than merely corrupt, however, » Read the full article