The 1154.30 target given here earlier can serve as a minimum upside target for the near term although the very minor trend is bearish as of 9:20 p.m. EST. That’s nothing a two-day close above 1126.00 wouldn’t cure, but until that happens we shouldn’t jump to conclusions. In the meantime, night owls can try bottom-fishing with an 1117.60 bid. The provenance of that Hidden Pivot is shown in the chart. _______ UPDATE (3:47 p.m. EST): The futures never quite got down to our bid, rallying instead from an 1118.20 low. The day-session close above 1126.00 is a positive sign, as noted.
From the monthly archives:
March 2010
Just because the futures have pulped an 1157.25 target on the weekly chart does not mean we cannot remain properly skeptical by requiring every uptick on the hourly chart to pass the sniff test. That approach yields an 1177.50 target to shoot for, based on the pattern shown in the inset. Camouflage entry opportunities will be in limited supply intraday, and so I’ll suggest using the 1-minute chart to take the first available ride after the opening bell. Night owls can try bottom-fishing at 1160.25 with a three-tick stop-loss. That’s the midpoint pivot of a down-pattern on the 2-minute chart where A=1165.25 (March 17, 2:26 p.m. EST) _______ UPDATE (2:04 p.m. EST): The midpoint pivot at 1160.25 gave way easily, telegraphing the intraday low at 1156.25 that was yet to occur. That is a single tick from the 1156.50 ‘D’ target associated with 1160.25. (On the 5-minute chart, A=1165.25, B=1157.75, and C=1164.00.) The theoretical loss on the trade was about $50.
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The Yen chart shows patterns pointing both up and down, one of which recently produced a bounce from very near its midpoint. If this bounce is a prelude to yet lower prices, we might use the midpoint of the dueling pattern, at 1.1229, as a place to try to get short for a ride down. This approach is valid so long as the bullish “C” point of 1.0984 is not revisited first. (Posted by Doug McLagan) ______ UPDATE (12:38 a.m. EST, March 18): This tout has been superseded by the one dated March 18 and is no longer active. Because we might make future reference to the chart attached to this tout, please note that the number 1.229 in the chart explanation should read 1.1229.
Tuesday’s brief but precise bounce off of the midpoint of a bullish daily pattern gives us the confidence to recommend shorting the D target of 118^16.5 with a tight stop. Traders should sell at 118^15 with a stop at 118^18.5, risking about $110. (Posted by Doug McLagan) _______ UPDATE (6:40 p.m.): Cancel the order, since the futures were having difficulty gaining altitude. Two days later, they’d gone no higher than 117^17.
The Euro has continued to move up, consistent with our view that it has recently made a significant low. But if it reaches a “D” target of 1.3900 soon, it will be overbought and due for a pullback. We will short at 1.3899 with a stop at 1.3911, risking $150 and taking account of an alternate A point six pips below and just to the left of the one we are using, as shown on the attached chart. (Posted by Doug McLagan) ______ UPDATE (12:42 a.m. EST, March 18): This tout has been superseded by the one dated March 18 and is no longer active.
Because it took two tries to push past the 1128.30 peak recorded on March 10, we should temper our bullishness until there’s more evidence. That said, the futures are nonetheless masticating an 1126.00 midpoint resistance that I noted earlier in the chat room, even if they have not yet left it behind. Once this occurs, the prospect of a run-up to exactly 1154.30 seems like a safe bet. A camouflaged opportunity to get long could crop up via a pullback from somewhere between the peaks that were recorded on the way down between March 3-7. All of the details noted herein are shown in the accompanying chart.
There are two targets just above that look like enticing shorts. The first lies at 1157.00, but I am wary of initiating a position there because the futures have already hit 1157.25 as of midnight and the night is still young. The second lies at 1161.00 and would give us a little more cushion against what looks to be a developing short-squeeze. The risk is that the top will occur below our offer, perhaps at 1157.25. In any event, I’ll recommend offering two contracts short at 1161.00, stop 1162.25. The chart shows the two relevant patterns.
Irrespective of whether the Dow is about to rally 239 points to tie the 1930 recovery, we should try to short this vehicle when it reaches the 48.12 target shown in the chart. Buy four April 48 puts, which should be selling for around 0.90 at the time, no stop-loss.
Too Bullish for Our Own Good?
by Rick Ackerman on March 18, 2010 1:48 am GMT · 10 comments
Bloodied bears should ponder the chart below before they surrender to the notion that stocks will continue to rise more or less forever. The first thing to notice is that the crash that followed October 2007’s all-time high came at a time when the Dow average had just pushed into the ozone, moving decisively above 14000 for the first time. It’s not hard to imagine bulls getting pretty fired up back then — and bears getting ready to dive into their bomb shelters. It looked like a moon shot was under way, and, based on our proprietary Hidden Pivot method, we’d have laid odds that the Industrial Average was bound for at » Read the full article