Thursday, May 13, 2010

Late-Night Maneuvers

– Posted in: Rick's Picks

Around 3:20 a.m. EDT, the Mini S&Ps were making slow progress toward the 1181.00 rally target given in today's tout, but the move would be good for another 20 points, to 1201.75, if the resistance  fails to slow them down. They need only hit 1175.25, however, to send bears a-running.

SIN10 – July Silver (Last:19.505)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

A rally target at 19.825 remains our minimum upside objective for now, since yesterday's rally fell nine cents shy. The target is a Hidden Pivot that I expect to show some stopping power, but if it's breached by more than three or four ticks, look for more upside over the near term to at least 20.32.  You should also keep in mind a major target at 21.53 that we've been using for a while.  Shortly before 3 a.m. EDT, easy opportunities for night owls looked limited. ______ UPDATE (1:31 p.m. EDT):  The futures popped overnight to 19.845, exceeding our minimum upside target by two cents.  This has bullish implications going forward, but they have been sidetracked by a savage, 50-cent drop from the highs.

GCM10 – Comex June Gold (Last:1229.20)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Buyers took out the 1243.10 rally target without much effort, implying they'll soon be back for more. Potential over the near tern -- in this case, meaning the next 3-5 days -- is 1286.30, a Hidden Pivot resistance that comes from the daily chart.  More immediately, the futures appeared to be struggling to reach a 1230.70 retracement target after having penetrated its midpoint sibling 1236.00. You can bottom-fish with a 1230.30 stop-loss if the opportunity should arise. ______ UPDATE (1:28 a.m. EDT): The futures have exceeded the minor support at 1230.70 and now look bound for a somewhat more important one at 1226.80 (5m chart, A=1249.10 on May 12).  Since they are rallying from 1227.50, however, we may have seen the lows for this correction.  A bullish turnaround would be corroborated by a print at 1235.40, which would create a bullish impulse leg on the five-minute chart.

ESM10 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1169.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The 1170.25 rally target that we've been using is obviously still on this vehicle's reptilian brain, and now it has been surpassed by 1.00 point. That's not quite enough to get it by the 1173.25 benchmark we set yesterday, but if it happens this morning it would create a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart that  we could not ignore.  However, lest we be bamboozled by a head-fake, let's ratchet the bar up slightly to 1175.25, which takes into account the 1175.00 peak-let show in the chart.  A point 'B' high that forms between those two numbers would offer great camouflage and the possibility of a trade like the one I've sketched.  On any kind of rally, my minimum upside target will be 1181.00. _______ UPDATE (1:17 p.m. EDT):  Our look-to-the-left peak at 1175.00 did its job beautifully, since we were not fooled when this sneaky little sonofabitch tiptoed up to exactly 1174.75 before going into a 13-point selloff.  The analysis remains valid, as does the crucial importance of 1175.00 to the short-term picture.

German Outrage Could Queer Deal

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

The Dow Industrials tacked on another big gain yesterday, blithely ignoring a global thumbs-down on Euroland’s latest, trillion dollar bailout package. The blue chip average finished up 149 points on the day, even as rumors circulated that Germany was about to ditch the euro and resurrect the D-mark. Whether or not this is true – and we doubt that it is – it’s clear that the Germans are becoming increasingly angry about having to play rich uncle to their n’er-do-well neighbors. Outside of Germany there appears to be a growing consensus that any further attempts to rescue, just for starters, Greece will simply be throwing (relatively) good money after bad.  This thought surfaced with unsurprising vehemence in the Rick’s Picks forum, where hard money rules, but it was surprising to see how quickly it caught on globally. For even as stocks rebounded with psychotic energy following last Thursday’s fleeting dive, the world’s major newspapers were questioning whether the  trillion-dollar credit line extended to the PIIGs would do any good. Pessimists were saying it would place a crushing debt burden on countries still able to pay their bills, and even the optimists were not claiming it would do much for Europe’s sclerotic economic growth. The U.S. stock market seemed inured to such doubts – to doubts about anything, really – in continuing its upward course. As the saying goes, “If you can keep a cool head while all those around you are  panicking, then perhaps you don’t understand the situation.” In fairness to the institutional speculators who have been teasing and manipulating U.S. stocks higher, they are not buying shares after having thought about the real world, but rather, because, at this moment in time, buying U.S. shares is what money managers are obliged to do with Other People’s Money. For