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COMMENTARY for Tuesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Tuesday
Rick's Picks for Tuesday
Late Monday night (EDT), Gold was holding onto most of the day’s gains, trading just $6 off the highs. My immediate target is 1261.80, as noted in today’s commentary, and the implied surge should be presumed under way following a “booster-stage” rally of at least $8.60 beginning from anywhere north of 1225.
Silver did everything we asked of it and more yesterday, setting up a likely push, for starters, to 18.580, a Hidden Pivot midpoint and the closest such resistance just above. We should set the bar somewhat higher, however, just above an important “external” peak at 19.145 recorded on May 18 when the futures were falling, to tell us when the correction from mid-May’s highs has ended. If the implied rally is truly impulsive — meaning it is unpaused between the two peaks labeled in the chart — we can infer that Silver is finally on its way to the promised land above $20.
DaBoyz have joined forces with nervous shorts and sundry other whack-jobs this evening to recoup (so far) 7 points of Monday’s loss on the usual, almost non-existent, volume. This doesn’t much affect the bearish targets we identified here yesterday — 1022, 1014 and 997 in succession — but it could set up a good opportunity to short this hog into illusory strength on Tuesday. Night owls can try a more delicate maneuver, shorting 1057.00 with a 1057.75 stop-loss. This very speculative trade is based on the pattern shown in the chart._______ UPDATE (1:26 a.m. EDT): This trade has been an easy winner so far, since the futures head-faked to our number exactly, 1057.00, stopping out the 1056.75 high made two hours earlier before dropping back to 1054.00. Cover half the position between 1054.00 and 1055.00, using a fixed stop at 1056.75 for what remains. (I’ll assume two contracts for your further guidance.) If the futures fall to 1052.00, cover another contract and swing for the fences with the short contract that’s left. _______ UPDATE (3:33 a.m. EDT): A spike to 1061.00 stopped us out overnight for a theoretical gain of about $300.
The Diamonds should start plummeting toward a Hidden Pivot target at 93.50 any day now. Although I’d rather try to get short into an upswing, we should make a very small bet today so that we won’t need to feign indifference if the plunge commences without warning. Accordingly, I’ll recommend bidding 2.75 for a single July 96 put. That’s about what they might sell for if the Diamonds have to catch up to the E-Mini futures at their Monday-night levels (i.e., up about six points). _______ UPDATE (3:30 a.m. EDT): The E-Mini S&P has been up as much as 13 points tonight, so let’s bring our bid for the puts down to 2.15.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
This Just In... for Tuesday
Our friend Phil Calderone sent us a note recently asserting that Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL) and Central Fund (AMEX: CEF) were as close to a “sure thing” as any bullion plays he’s seen in years. From a Hidden Pivot perspective, CEF became a speculative “buy” this morning, although Hecla, trading for 5.24 at this moment, would need t hit 5.37 to create an equally buyable, bullish impulse leg on its hourly chart. Here’s Phil with a full explanation that he sent me on May 20 — and caveat emptor! » Read the full article
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on Feb. 29th - Mar. 1st. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
Real Reason Gold Jumped: “Because!”
by Rick Ackerman on June 8, 2010 2:38 am GMT · 33 comments
Gold quotes lurched sharply higher yesterday, and we take it as especially bullish that the news media tripped over their own feet trying to explain why. Reuters reported that prices surged because of “safe-haven demand due to ongoing fears about euro zone credit contagion.” How’s that for lame analysis? The Wall Street Journal didn’t do much better: “Gold made a sudden, sharp move higher, a jump many attributed to fears of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.” Shouldn’t someone point out to these guys that the euro held its own yesterday for a rare change and that that is surely an odd way for traders to have expressed their supposed anxiety over Europe’s financial fate? Another talking head who apparently didn’t get it was Bart Melek, a global commodity strategist for some firm: “It’s a bizarre » Read the full article