Thursday, June 24, 2010

The futures flirted yesterday with a 1235.00 danger zone noted by our colleague Ross Clark, pulling just above it at day's end. I made reference to his analysis in the chat room (logged at 12:48 p.m.), noting that Hidden Pivot analysis sees a fall to at least 1214.20 as very likely. We'll be better able to determine whether the weakness is apt to persist beyond that threshold by monitoring price action at the support. If it is decisively breached, however, that would indicate a likely fall into the $1100s.  Please note that it would take a dip below 1157.60 to jeopardize the daily chart's long-term bullishness. (Ross's bearish outcome calls for $1160 or lower.) For bulls to regain control decisively would take a push to at least 1258.00 today. _____ UPDATE (11:04 a.m. EDT):  For whatever reason, Gold has whipped around today and is close to challenging yesterday's high, 1247.40. A move above it would negate the 1214.20 downside target, but I'd like to see the rally clear 1249.70 decisively before I infer that the correction is over.  That number is the Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance of a rally pattern projecting to 1274.20 (hourly chart, A=1217.50 on June 14).

(Cam Fitzgerald’s recent guest commentary here, “Britain Becomes the First to Choose Deflation,” drew a heavy response – more than 120 posts in the forum. Here are some further thoughts from him concerning Europe’s turn toward austerity and the potentially profound impact of this on the rest of the world -- even on the U.S., which has yet to heave Keynesian quackery overboard. RA) A young friend asked me yesterday, “What on earth does negative growth mean?” and I had to laugh because it really is a ridiculous term dreamed up by political economists to put a positive spin on really bad news. I had actually never given the term any serious thought until then. “It means,” I said, “economic contraction and recession.” It really is no wonder the kids cannot figure out what is going on with all the nonsense terminology flapping about. With France, Italy, Britain, Spain and of course Greece all now seemingly embracing austerity measures to bring their economies into line with EU terms specifying deficits be no larger than 3% of GDP, they are all about to experience “negative growth”.  A double dip recession is now hurtling our way and it will affect Canada and our housing markets in a very big way. Britain itself is targeting a debt reduction policy that it hopes will see that country’s massive debt fall to 40% or 50% of GDP by the year 2030. Prime Minister David Cameron has suggested that this will fundamentally change the lives of his countrymen for years to come. He is right. Some economists and politicians are already spinning this development as a positive change and suggesting that inflation targets and growth objectives can be met while the engine of the economy is put into idle (if not reverse). That is nonsense, of

Using scalpel and forceps to expose some finely nuanced price action in Gold and the E-Mini S&Ps, we were able to identify Hidden Pivot targets in each that promised to be tradable later in the day with relatively little risk. Both vehicles were falling, and although the evidence was strong that the weakness would continue over the near term, we established clear and precise parameters that would allow us to detect a bullish turn from the very subtlest beginnings. And one more thing. Bill Gross, please take note: 30-Year Bond Futures are going much higher – to at least 128^07.

The 18.115 downside target given here yesterday remains valid, but if there's going to be a respite in the selling -- and possibly an opportune spot to try bottom-fishing -- it would come at the 'p" midpoint shown in the chart. The support is subject to  'C'  (18.560) remaining intact, but if that peak is exceeded, you can simply plug in the new high to calculate a revised Hidden Pivot midpoint and target.  If it coincides with Wednedsay's 18.310 low, however, its value for trading would be diminished. ______ UPDATE (9:37 a.m. EDT): The futures blew out 'C' before retreating lower.  The new pattern presaged a move down to 17.960, with a midpoint suypport at 18.285 that has already been crushed. To undo the damage would take a rally today exceeding 18.770. 

Yesterdays afternoon's 20-minute wilding spree should have scared hell out of shorts (yet again), which is why it occurred to begin with. From a Hidden Pivot standpoint, the rally was ineffectual for two reasons: it surpassed nothing nada zilch, even on the 15-minute chart; and it occurred after the downtrend had already punctured a key low from June 15, creating a robustly bearish impulse leg on the intraday charts. The pattern has become too ragged to read with much confidence, but it points ambiguously toward 1063.25, a Hidden Pivot support that is not recommended for bottom-fishing.  Getting short is another matter, of course, but it will not be possible to do so by way of an entry price I can project overnight. Incidentally, bulls would have a chance of temporarily reviving their hoax with a print today at 1098.25.