Our friend Erich Simon asked his scientist cousin in Germany what he thinks about the Gulf oil gusher. Here is the cousin’s interesting response:
“The claim of several leakage sites has been around. The scientific method (and I can’t deny my pedigree here) would be to say “show the data”, which at the moment is unlikely to happen due to whatever degree of the incompetence <-> conspiracy continuum. Seriously, this is a very difficult situation.
“Fractured seabed: wouldn’t want to nuke the hole closed then…..
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“Peak Oil debunking? I know there are discussions between Peak Oil people vs. abiotic origin of and hence plentiful supply with oil. Fossil origin of oil means finite supply. Abiotic origin sounds nice, but if true will require extremely deep drilling = difficult = expensive = unclear whether it can supply oil at the economically required rate. Regardless of which side one takes in a fossil vs. abiotic origin debate, slowing growth or even decline of oil production by whatever mechanism (fossil oil running out, abiotic reserves too difficult to reach by drilling) has to be called Peak Oil. The debates are on whether the globe is at that tipping point. Personally I don’t care too much about cheap talk of those combattants and them scoring discussion victories, but I just wonder whether we can afford to ignore the possibility of a bad outcome (i.e. Peak Oil in the strong sense) and not prepare for the coming crisi(e)s? Even if there is an abiotic origin of oil, does one (for the time being) want to have the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere? I think again an argument pushing for conservationism + preparedness.
“Where the US government stands on these questions is obvious: with a military presence in the Middle East, so guess what they are preparing for.
What the Gulf spill dramatically shows is that all US planning for future energy supply (at least the official one) is going down the drain. This will increase global instability to a frightening extent (think: wounded elephant trampling around), on top of all the other current crises zones. The economic wars are in the making: our recent discussion of the Euro was just that + shows orchestration to portray the Euro as a weak currency and to polish perceptions of the dollar.”
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