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COMMENTARY for Thursday
TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday
Rick's Picks for Thursday
We briefly observed, and then caught, a small piece of yesterday’s fleeting upside near 1091 during the weekly tutorial session, thinking it would be good for a ride to an 1108.25 rally target broached here earlier (and which, incidentally, is still valid). Alas, the futures could muster only 1095.50 before turning south. Bears proved equally unimpressive thereafter, and that’s where things stood Wednesday evening. Night owls can try bottom-fishing at 1086.50, a Hidden Pivot midpoint, but the trade’s worth no more than a 1085.75 stop-loss.
From chat room regular “Tom Paine,” here’s as good as summary as you will find of yesterday’s price action in Gold: ”It went down then up then down then up again today and is virtually unchanged on the day.” From a Hidden Pivot perspective, nothing has changed. A print at 1222.90 would be mildly encouraging but anything less should be ignored.
DXY fell yesterday to within 0.41 points of our target, a Hidden Pivot at 82.80 that has the potential to produce a very tradable swing low. There are many ways to play the turn if it comes, and so I am proffering the target for your discretionary use. If DXY thrusts above 83.77 before touching 82.80, it would imply a strong (but possibly brief) rally immediately ahead. ______ UPDATE (12:22 a.m. EDT): DXY’s obliviousness to the hidden support suggests yet more weeks, or longer, of weakness ahead. The next test will be of a minor support at 82.16, so let’s see how it goes.
If we ignore yesterday’s gratuitous hiccup, Silver looks poised for a more durable thrust, having exceeded the Hidden Pivot rally target shown in the chart by more than four cents yesterday. However, the futures weren’t providing any solid hand holds Wednesday night, even on the 2-minute chart. A midpoint resistance at 18.395 might work as a breakout number, but you’ll need to improvise your own tactic if you want to get long.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
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To Believe in the Bull Is to Buy into an Epic Fraud
by Rick Ackerman on July 15, 2010 1:56 am GMT · 34 comments
We took a deeply skeptical view here yesterday of the buying frenzy that has pushed stocks sharply higher since early July. Not surprisingly, some market observers think the rally is the real McCoy – an entirely normal upthrust in an ongoing bull market. “The only question is, when will you admit you’re wrong?” asked a contributor, Keith P., in the Rick’s Picks forum. “[At Dow 12000? 14000? 18000? I’m just wondering. Will you be like the rest and say everyone else is wrong the whole way up — or at some point will you say, yes, I was wrong? I’m not bashing you at all,” he continued. “You kept us in many long positions the whole way up. You’ve done a great job. I’m just saying I » Read the full article