Comments on: Risk of Depression Low, Says Our Man in China http://www.rickackerman.com/2010/07/risk-of-depression-low-says-our-man-in-china/ Trading Newsletter for Gold, Silver, Stocks and Mini Indexes Mon, 13 Feb 2012 12:42:40 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: redwilldanaher http://www.rickackerman.com/2010/07/risk-of-depression-low-says-our-man-in-china/comment-page-1/#comment-8390 redwilldanaher Thu, 05 Aug 2010 06:10:32 +0000 http://www.rickackerman.com/?p=24623#comment-8390 After reading your additional comments and those of Aidehua I wanted to briefly respond. I'm not arguing that there hasn't been, is not currently nor will there be natural, legitimate and expected growth realized in China, India or anywhere else. I'm arguing that it is rife with manipulation and deceit of all sorts and that the statistics that are disseminated and the financial and banking systems that underpin it all can not be trusted. I'm not comfortable accepting the BS that comes out of the West that I'm familiar with so I'm certainly not going to accept at face value what China's OK'd to report. I'm also arguing that snapshots in time are dangerous to draw long term conclusions from regardless of how spectacular they look upon first glance. You'll not that I didn't compare you to a flipper but stated that you sounded like one to me because that's exactly what I heard a few years back. The idea that nothing can go wrong. Nothing can veer off course. That it is simply an inevitability, yes, I take issue with that. I've heard those proclamations many times before and at those times I was dramatically underestimating the power of illusion compared to now. The Ghost City, from reports that I've come across, is but one of many. It's difficult for me to know for sure since I'm not in the same position as say Goldman Sachs telling the government how to handle the bailouts or how to word "financial reform". I passed on many parts of your original commentary because it was very far ranging and it would have been difficult to adequately respond to it all at the time. I will add that I don't believe that there is one right way or good way or that the American way is the way etc. What I value highly may be of little value to another thoughtful person. I may have missed it but it seems as though you haven't accounted for the possibility of social change and unrest etc. It can happen anywhere and its managed to undo some of the best laid plans across time. That's just one factor that could forestall for a time "inevitability". Finally, although somewhat familiar with structure in China I wouldn't claim to even resemble an expert. Yet I will note that I'll cast my lot with individual favoring systems over those of are even a mix of centrally planned and market-based all other things being equal. Unfortunately from the reports I've seen China's "lobbyists" seem to be enriching themselves with the same great disparities that their US counterparts have and it would take a coin flip to determine who holds corruption bragging rights. After reading your additional comments and those of Aidehua I wanted to briefly respond. I’m not arguing that there hasn’t been, is not currently nor will there be natural, legitimate and expected growth realized in China, India or anywhere else. I’m arguing that it is rife with manipulation and deceit of all sorts and that the statistics that are disseminated and the financial and banking systems that underpin it all can not be trusted. I’m not comfortable accepting the BS that comes out of the West that I’m familiar with so I’m certainly not going to accept at face value what China’s OK’d to report. I’m also arguing that snapshots in time are dangerous to draw long term conclusions from regardless of how spectacular they look upon first glance. You’ll not that I didn’t compare you to a flipper but stated that you sounded like one to me because that’s exactly what I heard a few years back. The idea that nothing can go wrong. Nothing can veer off course. That it is simply an inevitability, yes, I take issue with that. I’ve heard those proclamations many times before and at those times I was dramatically underestimating the power of illusion compared to now. The Ghost City, from reports that I’ve come across, is but one of many. It’s difficult for me to know for sure since I’m not in the same position as say Goldman Sachs telling the government how to handle the bailouts or how to word “financial reform”. I passed on many parts of your original commentary because it was very far ranging and it would have been difficult to adequately respond to it all at the time. I will add that I don’t believe that there is one right way or good way or that the American way is the way etc. What I value highly may be of little value to another thoughtful person. I may have missed it but it seems as though you haven’t accounted for the possibility of social change and unrest etc. It can happen anywhere and its managed to undo some of the best laid plans across time. That’s just one factor that could forestall for a time “inevitability”. Finally, although somewhat familiar with structure in China I wouldn’t claim to even resemble an expert. Yet I will note that I’ll cast my lot with individual favoring systems over those of are even a mix of centrally planned and market-based all other things being equal. Unfortunately from the reports I’ve seen China’s “lobbyists” seem to be enriching themselves with the same great disparities that their US counterparts have and it would take a coin flip to determine who holds corruption bragging rights.

]]> By: redwilldanaher http://www.rickackerman.com/2010/07/risk-of-depression-low-says-our-man-in-china/comment-page-1/#comment-8387 redwilldanaher Thu, 05 Aug 2010 05:32:47 +0000 http://www.rickackerman.com/?p=24623#comment-8387 Martin, do you think that it's possible that one of the main reasons why Americans have such a large cost for a "big house" has to be the misguided manipulation and deformation of the housing market which in large part can be directly traced back to the central planners and their bosses (the lobbyists) that mangle the tax code when they're not busy ensuring fairness by way of the elimination of empirically sound lending standards? What happens if their compass is off someday? What if transparency were to be raised from the dead? One can only dream. Martin, do you think that it’s possible that one of the main reasons why Americans have such a large cost for a “big house” has to be the misguided manipulation and deformation of the housing market which in large part can be directly traced back to the central planners and their bosses (the lobbyists) that mangle the tax code when they’re not busy ensuring fairness by way of the elimination of empirically sound lending standards? What happens if their compass is off someday? What if transparency were to be raised from the dead? One can only dream.

]]> By: redwilldanaher http://www.rickackerman.com/2010/07/risk-of-depression-low-says-our-man-in-china/comment-page-1/#comment-8386 redwilldanaher Thu, 05 Aug 2010 05:18:42 +0000 http://www.rickackerman.com/?p=24623#comment-8386 Chris T. Let me back you up with a "hear, hear" and then some. I see that you concluded your remarks as I normally do. There is simply too much to list and I just run out of steam because I begin to think how delusional someone would need to be to still be backing our CEO Puppet and thus failing to see how not only this arrogant pretender but all of them over the past 20 years from both parties have intentionally brought the USA to the precipice. Of course the timeline is much longer than that but I believe that the "peace dividend" debate is an ideal place to start given how the totality of the decline began to accelerate from that point onward. Given the "accomplishments" that they've achieved for us and the tremendously "strong economy" and "powerful bull markets" that CNBC has chronicled since then one would think that we'd all be dining on honeydew and drinking coconut milk on our sliver of a sandy beach. But something unfunny happened on the way back to Prosperity Park. We seemed to have detoured to the wrong side of the tracks in the heart of Mogadishu. Both parties have nearly equally spent time occupying the president and in the majority of our "great houses" yet the lament remains the same. Seriously Larry, this is ALL the Republicans' fault? Just a coincidence right? If we'd have just let Hilary Care pass and Democorp dominate the last two decades we'd all be much better off, like Greece perhaps? I doubt this will help but I will try in earnest regardless. The reason why so many people resent this man is because he's an arrogant, lying fraud that even the word "hypocrite" doesn't adequately describe. He's never done anything of significance completely on his own accord besides develop an unjustifiably superior opinion of himself and his collectivist ideals, oh, and he also warmed to being installed as the President of the United States by a corporately owned propagandist media that largely maintains the Matrix that you do not seem to realize that you're living in. Chris T. Let me back you up with a “hear, hear” and then some. I see that you concluded your remarks as I normally do. There is simply too much to list and I just run out of steam because I begin to think how delusional someone would need to be to still be backing our CEO Puppet and thus failing to see how not only this arrogant pretender but all of them over the past 20 years from both parties have intentionally brought the USA to the precipice. Of course the timeline is much longer than that but I believe that the “peace dividend” debate is an ideal place to start given how the totality of the decline began to accelerate from that point onward. Given the “accomplishments” that they’ve achieved for us and the tremendously “strong economy” and “powerful bull markets” that CNBC has chronicled since then one would think that we’d all be dining on honeydew and drinking coconut milk on our sliver of a sandy beach. But something unfunny happened on the way back to Prosperity Park. We seemed to have detoured to the wrong side of the tracks in the heart of Mogadishu. Both parties have nearly equally spent time occupying the president and in the majority of our “great houses” yet the lament remains the same. Seriously Larry, this is ALL the Republicans’ fault? Just a coincidence right? If we’d have just let Hilary Care pass and Democorp dominate the last two decades we’d all be much better off, like Greece perhaps? I doubt this will help but I will try in earnest regardless. The reason why so many people resent this man is because he’s an arrogant, lying fraud that even the word “hypocrite” doesn’t adequately describe. He’s never done anything of significance completely on his own accord besides develop an unjustifiably superior opinion of himself and his collectivist ideals, oh, and he also warmed to being installed as the President of the United States by a corporately owned propagandist media that largely maintains the Matrix that you do not seem to realize that you’re living in.

]]> By: Benjamin http://www.rickackerman.com/2010/07/risk-of-depression-low-says-our-man-in-china/comment-page-1/#comment-8353 Benjamin Tue, 03 Aug 2010 00:53:44 +0000 http://www.rickackerman.com/?p=24623#comment-8353 "Once you take out the costs of a car and a big house, you don’t need that much to live. But for Americans that would be quite hard to do." Wish I had seen this comment earlier. Anyway, it's malarkie because that assessment doesn't consider that over here, we're still the new world. Total population vs liveable/desireable land mass in all of the Americas still isn't anywhere near as crowded a Europe, let alone China. Naturally, over there renting is much more doable because what else are people going to do? It's not like China will ever be anything like it is or ever was over here. Renting is going to have to be the only choice for many people there because land doesn't grow nearly enough to put so many people in houses. Which brings us to cars. Because we aren't crammed together as much, distribution works differently. And because it does, we have to have diesel fuel for truck and trains to cross all that land. Even if we all crammed into a few big cities, we still have land to cross with truck and train. And that nesseciates the production of gasoline, unless dumping it or just burning off without the "benefit" of a gigantic catalytic converter that runs without profit is more acceptible than burning it with cars. So, yes, WE, the Americans, DO need cars. What, you want us all to go live in China so that we drive your rents up in order to take advantage of a distrubtion system that would probably crash from the very act? Because that's really the only way we can get rid of houses and cars. It isn't out of cultured snobbery that we live the way we do. And as far as houses vs apartments go, the whole bubble and bust thing wouldn't have been different if we financed more apartments into more central locations instead. Financing is financing is financing, regardless of what is financed. We'd be much more wasteful, dirty, and broke in trying to live more like Asians. But mainstream criticisms of the U.S. never consider that, let alone the why behind. The worst thing is, that isn't going to change, and hardwired realities ignored will lead to more malinvestment. Then again, the ruling classes always did hate the fact that a new land was discovered. From the time the Knights Templar staked a claim here (interesting story, that) in pursuit of religious freedom, to the time the founders wrote a Constitution that declared the old world forms of rulership obsolete, the cheiftan classes never miss a chance to dump on and shame us. Never. “Once you take out the costs of a car and a big house, you don’t need that much to live. But for Americans that would be quite hard to do.”

Wish I had seen this comment earlier. Anyway, it’s malarkie because that assessment doesn’t consider that over here, we’re still the new world. Total population vs liveable/desireable land mass in all of the Americas still isn’t anywhere near as crowded a Europe, let alone China. Naturally, over there renting is much more doable because what else are people going to do? It’s not like China will ever be anything like it is or ever was over here. Renting is going to have to be the only choice for many people there because land doesn’t grow nearly enough to put so many people in houses.

Which brings us to cars. Because we aren’t crammed together as much, distribution works differently. And because it does, we have to have diesel fuel for truck and trains to cross all that land. Even if we all crammed into a few big cities, we still have land to cross with truck and train. And that nesseciates the production of gasoline, unless dumping it or just burning off without the “benefit” of a gigantic catalytic converter that runs without profit is more acceptible than burning it with cars.

So, yes, WE, the Americans, DO need cars. What, you want us all to go live in China so that we drive your rents up in order to take advantage of a distrubtion system that would probably crash from the very act? Because that’s really the only way we can get rid of houses and cars. It isn’t out of cultured snobbery that we live the way we do. And as far as houses vs apartments go, the whole bubble and bust thing wouldn’t have been different if we financed more apartments into more central locations instead. Financing is financing is financing, regardless of what is financed.

We’d be much more wasteful, dirty, and broke in trying to live more like Asians. But mainstream criticisms of the U.S. never consider that, let alone the why behind. The worst thing is, that isn’t going to change, and hardwired realities ignored will lead to more malinvestment. Then again, the ruling classes always did hate the fact that a new land was discovered. From the time the Knights Templar staked a claim here (interesting story, that) in pursuit of religious freedom, to the time the founders wrote a Constitution that declared the old world forms of rulership obsolete, the cheiftan classes never miss a chance to dump on and shame us. Never.

]]> By: Chris T. http://www.rickackerman.com/2010/07/risk-of-depression-low-says-our-man-in-china/comment-page-1/#comment-8328 Chris T. Mon, 02 Aug 2010 12:45:56 +0000 http://www.rickackerman.com/?p=24623#comment-8328 Larry wrotes: "I voted for Mr. Obama… the constant hatred towards our President is disturbing… most of those folk’s that hate Mr. Obama" And there is indeed something to hate, but not for most of his "program". That is just misguided, status-quo politics from the "D" side of the Janus-coin. His predecessor did the "R" side of that same coin. What is to hate though, is the by now total repudiation of most of his campaign pledges, and it is this deceit that is to hate. SNL did a great job earlier this year in their now famous intro-skit. Another example can be seen here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZvWilRn0L8 All of you Obama supporters, who are still unwilling to drop this president for the fraud he is (just like his predecessor, both of whom had their marionette strings so extremely short) are the ones to despise. Just imagine the flak "W" would have received if he had handled the BP situation in this way! Rendition? Still going on. Guantanamo? Still there Defense spending? Still up Justice Department fighting against Patriot-Act (and other) constitutional challenges? All taken over by Holder and continued Vacation president? OB has played more golf in his first 18mo in office than EVERY^president -- INCLUDING W-- before him in an ENTIRE 4 year term. And on, and on. And that is leaving out all the continuations of the misguded economic measures started by Bush, just on steroids. You are only right about one thing: Those that you deem to "hate" OB had their eyes closed at W, whom they should have "hated" just as much. Unfortunately, you are doing the same thing. That is why the "left" has lost all credibility -- where is your Cindy Shehan staking out OB now? Larry wrotes:

“I voted for Mr. Obama… the constant hatred towards our President is disturbing… most of those folk’s that hate Mr. Obama”

And there is indeed something to hate, but not for most of his “program”. That is just misguided, status-quo politics from the “D” side of the Janus-coin. His predecessor did the “R” side of that same coin.

What is to hate though, is the by now total repudiation of most of his campaign pledges, and it is this deceit that is to hate.

SNL did a great job earlier this year in their now famous intro-skit.
Another example can be seen here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZvWilRn0L8

All of you Obama supporters, who are still unwilling to drop this president for the fraud he is (just like his predecessor, both of whom had their marionette strings so extremely short) are the ones to despise.

Just imagine the flak “W” would have received if he had handled the BP situation in this way!

Rendition? Still going on.
Guantanamo? Still there
Defense spending? Still up
Justice Department fighting against Patriot-Act (and other) constitutional challenges? All taken over by Holder and continued
Vacation president? OB has played more golf in his first 18mo in office than EVERY^president — INCLUDING W– before him in an ENTIRE 4 year term.

And on, and on.
And that is leaving out all the continuations of the misguded economic measures started by Bush, just on steroids.

You are only right about one thing:
Those that you deem to “hate” OB had their eyes closed at W, whom they should have “hated” just as much.
Unfortunately, you are doing the same thing.

That is why the “left” has lost all credibility — where is your Cindy Shehan staking out OB now?

]]> By: Larry http://www.rickackerman.com/2010/07/risk-of-depression-low-says-our-man-in-china/comment-page-1/#comment-8290 Larry Sun, 01 Aug 2010 23:57:46 +0000 http://www.rickackerman.com/?p=24623#comment-8290 Hi Rick, imo there is a deep hatred between the so called "right" and Mr. Obama.. every time I tune on to talk radio program it is constant hate of Mr. Obama... I voted for Mr. Obama... the constant hatred towards our President is disturbing... most of those folk's that hate Mr. Obama are people that never served and are afraid of their taxes being raised. Mr Bush gave them a hand-out.. while the standard of living of the rest went downhill... talk about rich coward crybabies! Hi Rick,
imo there is a deep hatred between the so called “right” and Mr. Obama.. every time I tune on to talk radio program it is constant hate of Mr. Obama… I voted for Mr. Obama… the constant hatred towards our President is disturbing… most of those folk’s that hate Mr. Obama are people that never served and are afraid of their taxes being raised. Mr Bush gave them a hand-out.. while the standard of living of the rest went downhill… talk about rich coward crybabies!

]]> By: mario cavolo http://www.rickackerman.com/2010/07/risk-of-depression-low-says-our-man-in-china/comment-page-1/#comment-8251 mario cavolo Sun, 01 Aug 2010 09:10:29 +0000 http://www.rickackerman.com/?p=24623#comment-8251 .....meanwhile, I get the impression worldwide that the rich and semi-rich have quite well mastered isolating themselves from the poor... A perfect moment to remind us all to pop in your Trading Places DVD to laugh and smile at the treachery all around us as Mortimer gets crushed!!!!!!!!....Bless that cast of characters one and all... Cheers, Mario …..meanwhile, I get the impression worldwide that the rich and semi-rich have quite well mastered isolating themselves from the poor…

A perfect moment to remind us all to pop in your Trading Places DVD to laugh and smile at the treachery all around us as Mortimer gets crushed!!!!!!!!….Bless that cast of characters one and all…

Cheers, Mario

]]> By: mario cavolo http://www.rickackerman.com/2010/07/risk-of-depression-low-says-our-man-in-china/comment-page-1/#comment-8249 mario cavolo Sun, 01 Aug 2010 09:03:17 +0000 http://www.rickackerman.com/?p=24623#comment-8249 ...Thank you very much especially for "just trade the damn charts!"....I am sure Rick would agree that is glorious advice....Cheers, Mario …Thank you very much especially for “just trade the damn charts!”….I am sure Rick would agree that is glorious advice….Cheers, Mario

]]> By: mario cavolo http://www.rickackerman.com/2010/07/risk-of-depression-low-says-our-man-in-china/comment-page-1/#comment-8242 mario cavolo Sun, 01 Aug 2010 06:55:28 +0000 http://www.rickackerman.com/?p=24623#comment-8242 Thank you for your add on. However, two things: First, its worse than you think about me on the "flipping condos" thing.... I actually TEACH executives how to communicate more persuasively and I was often mentored in my early years by some very charming, unethical people. Fortunately, I can say I don't have those intentions with the knowledge I share. As you sit there in our chair now reading this sentence, sharing the same concerns as many.... you can find yourself thinking...enough, you get the idea I hope...beware the manipulators... Second, you're way way off on the China Ghost City example....way too small a slice of the pie to include in any credible China argument. Best, Mario Thank you for your add on. However, two things:

First, its worse than you think about me on the “flipping condos” thing…. I actually TEACH executives how to communicate more persuasively and I was often mentored in my early years by some very charming, unethical people. Fortunately, I can say I don’t have those intentions with the knowledge I share. As you sit there in our chair now reading this sentence, sharing the same concerns as many…. you can find yourself thinking…enough, you get the idea I hope…beware the manipulators…

Second, you’re way way off on the China Ghost City example….way too small a slice of the pie to include in any credible China argument.

Best, Mario

]]> By: mario cavolo http://www.rickackerman.com/2010/07/risk-of-depression-low-says-our-man-in-china/comment-page-1/#comment-8241 mario cavolo Sun, 01 Aug 2010 06:45:31 +0000 http://www.rickackerman.com/?p=24623#comment-8241 Hey cosmo, yep could be...Meanwhile, I'm about to write my mother to send me another fabulous American care package that only a mother can do...loaded with goodies that as you point out are on sale everywhere back in the states...gotta love those 2 for 1 deals at Walgreens on their health supplement stuff....2 for 1 OsteoBiFlex for my aching neck is an amazing bargain...and God bless peanut butter Ritz crackers! Cheers, Mario Hey cosmo, yep could be…Meanwhile, I’m about to write my mother to send me another fabulous American care package that only a mother can do…loaded with goodies that as you point out are on sale everywhere back in the states…gotta love those 2 for 1 deals at Walgreens on their health supplement stuff….2 for 1 OsteoBiFlex for my aching neck is an amazing bargain…and God bless peanut butter Ritz crackers!

Cheers, Mario

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