Comments on: To Believe in the Bull Is to Buy into an Epic Fraud

By: flash

flash — Sat, 07 Aug 2010 08:09:51 +0000

the way i have preserved money is to follow the global macromaven, felix Zulag who i think is somewhat in the guru categlry as John Templeton. where i disagree- Zulaf says markets today arehighly correlated-he predicts a dow of 500. he has ben right on so many occassions. any reader can google in Felix Zulaf and listen to his world view with barry Ritzholtz on the BIG Picture. He knows the world. He do not provide an american perspective. NOw fortue says gobal umemployment will be widespread. in Africa it is over 30 per cent- spain 2o per cent usa 9.5. i think we have tol ive with global unemployment for a decade-what are we told not to buy treasuries. treasuries maybe the biggest gainers in the next few years. who wants garbage treasuries. None. Hey netfilx and priceline look like hot stocks if you believe wiliam o’Neilll but like they are hot they can get cold quickly. I see very little date that tells me the stock markets is not a screaming buy. analysts got BP at 57. thailand, Indonesia, egypt look pretty god. Maybe they can buc k Zulaf’s predictions. He is very risk averse. So one might have to play two sides of the market. If every comapny is putting out an Alerian ETF, do you want to be in mlp’s even if they have outperformed the s&P 4 to 1 over the last 15 years. spanish home prices have to deflate. the crummy CD’s maybe a good buy for the next 3 years. Look you can go nutty trying to figure it out. somone who is computer literate should get FElix Zulaf on Facebook and i am surein 6 months, he would have 1 million friends- rohmer just quit . the GOP has no ideas. we need another super stimulus. If we do not get it, Zulaf once again will proably prove right. 3 outof 4 money mangers say deflation is out of the question- what if it comes? look the real story may be the Euro-for america to recover the dollar has to sink sink sink so we can create manufacturing jobs-but because of the wonderful net and outsourcing, we can live with 10 per cent unemploymjent for a decade also voice recognition. since the stock market is a game, I think the best place to put your money is in treasuries, in Africa, and in companies like Northern Trust or Tr price . asset gatherers-but everyone should google in Felix zulaf on the big Picture with barry Ritzholz-

By: Rich

Rich — Sun, 18 Jul 2010 00:50:36 +0000

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sanguine-stock-picker-2010-07-12?reflink=MW_news_stmp

You show much better timing Rick…

By: F. Beard

F. Beard — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 23:16:24 +0000

You are arguing perpetual motion/cold fusion, or I’d spend more time crafting a rebuttal. RA

If you did refute it, you would be the first and I have posted this solution widely. In fact, at one time you seem to think it’s plausible.

The only objection I’ve heard is hyper-inflation risk which could be eliminated by leverage restrictions on the banks.

By: Jeff Lane

Jeff Lane — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 21:39:20 +0000

No one can truly know the future ? Yes, but I predict a Greater Depression ahead. The market ? Manipulated as hell, but it’s the only thing the powers that be can point to as “economic encouragement” that things are’nt so bad. Without this 75% rise off the bottom, the consumer would have rolled over dead long ago. Market up or down ? Both. We will see a major fall before “they” decide to finally throw everything, including the kitchen sink at it…..Then, Keith, you will see your 14,000 and more as we melt into one last bubble…Too bad your purchasing power will make it fell like 5000. jmho

By: F. Beard

F. Beard — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 19:04:42 +0000

Ultimately, every penny of every debt must be paid — if not by the borrower, then by the lender. RA

Not so. An equal distribution of sufficient new legal tender (United States Notes) to every US adult would bailout the borrowers, compensate the savers for years of suppressed interest rates and fix the banks in nominal terms. State tax revenues might also be fixed by a jubilant (pun intended) and spending population.

Free lunch? Not really. It would merely be the halting of current wealth destruction.

Our banking and money system is fundamentally crooked; it is thus an error to assume that normal moral principles apply to it.

&&&&&&

There are no exceptions to the rule; like the law of gravity, it is immutable. As for wealth destruction, it cannot be halted by such a scheme as you have proposed. You are arguing perpetual motion/cold fusion, or I’d spend more time crafting a rebuttal. RA

By: Benjamin

Benjamin — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 18:21:30 +0000

I didn’t exactly think this would provoke a response, but thanks all the same. That’s interesting!

But I thought I was following you until you got to gold. Negative discount… Okay, so that means what?

I was under the impression that a negative discount means gain in value. For example… 100 at 0% discount = 100 … 100 at -10% discount = 110, and so on. Thus, lower NPV because 100 @10% discount = 90, and higher as discount approaches 0.

If so, I can understand some of the problems about negative discount, like refinancing NPV. The company in question is too expensive to finance the more into the negative discount goes.

Right so far?

By: Benjamin

Benjamin — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 17:58:32 +0000

“People had a heart attack the first time we reached a $1 billion deficit. The end was imminent, but now we are at 1 trillion. My, my, who ever would have thunk that??? Not any of you that’s for damn sure!!!!!!!”

That’s a lot of exclamation points, considering we’re just talking about a number. I mean, why should any of us have thought anything if it’s just a number? The other side of the question is, why pat yourself on the back over having predicted yet another ho-hum deficit(!!!!!!!)?

A brief Freudian slip of the tongue or a french kiss with it? I’ll let the other readers decide…

By: keith

keith — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 17:17:30 +0000

I think the issue at hand is can anyone really predict the future? The crisis that we are in will be unlike any in the past. You can’t possibly convince me to use a model like Weimar Germany (hyper-inflation) or the Great Depression (hyper-deflation). We live in a different world today and are about to write another chapter in history.

How many of you can boast about loading up on gold and silver in the mid 90’s like I did? I thought we were going to collapse a decade ago. All the signs were there no less then they are today. Yet, here we are. You say, ya but now we are 56 trillion in debt! My answer is, so what. It’s just a number. Maybe it will go to 156 trillion. People had a heart attack the first time we reached a $1 billion deficit. The end was imminent, but now we are at 1 trillion. My, my, who ever would have thunk that??? Not any of you that’s for damn sure!!!!!!!

&&&&&

$56 trillion of debt is not “just a number” — it (or whatever level of debt currently exists) is manifestly the threshold at which the economy has begun to deflate toward ruin. Your number is w-a-a-ay low, by the way. Government debt and liabilities alone are at least $130 trillion. Much of that stems from promised pensions and health care — and there is no getting around the implication that many would-be recipients are going to be VERY disappointed. In this case, “disappointment” equates directly to the steep fall in the standard of living that lies ahead for America. This decline is pernicious and sometimes not even explicitly recognized — as in the case of air travel. You can still fly to LaGuardia for $250, but the “how” (i.e., the amenities) has come more and more to resemble Third World travel. RA

By: cameroni

cameroni — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 16:44:14 +0000

With so much constant bad news it really is a little perplexing that markets keep rising. I have to agree with others who suspect some artificial boost is goosing stocks. But hey, there are politics at play here too and the stock markets really are the score card representing how investors feel about the economy. It’s value is the last best hope and really all that remains to foster the feeling amongst the general public that all is OK in the world.

Everything is not Ok though and we all know it. When the real correction comes there will be nothing left to hang our hat of hope on that the “great recession” is over. And I think that is why no efforts are being spared by the guys behind the curtain to keep stocks bouyant despite near record bearishness.

When the markets finally do come down, all confidence in the economy will be ruined along with the sagging numbers and the game will be over. Maybe the market manipulation is actually saving our sorry butts.

By: donniemac

donniemac — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 16:31:56 +0000

Massive spending in downturns and then getting all of that excess outlay back when the economy takes off. Unfortunately, most legislative bodies are loath to cut spending when the economy is running on all cylinders, actually they are loath to cut spending period . But that is what is needed, put that spending power back into the treasury for the next time it is needed and that action will also help keep the economy from becoming overheated during the expansion phase. I agree that to keep spending is kind of foolhardy, there are times one needs to put their economic house in order. But the time is not when demand is already weak. The time is when demand is strong.
But to answer your question, I do not know any nation that greatly reduced spending after kick starting their economy. And there are lots of reasons why. Foremost is the lag between spending and the measurable results. Also the disagreement on what constitutes a downturn looking forward. Usually the damage done from a downturn is properly assessed afterwards, hindsight is 20/20.
The quote about a democracy cannot survive once the citizens realize they can “raid” the treasury has a large streak of reality. All of that makes it very hard, IMHO, to properly apply Keynesian theory and why no one has actually done it.