September 21st, 2014
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The response to Mario Cavolo’s glowing take on China and the global economy was eye-opening, to say the least. It’s not hard to understand why someone who lives and works in China, as Mario does, might believe that the country’s economic prospects are so spectacular as to all but preclude the possibility of a deflationary depression elsewhere in the world. We’re not so sure ourselves and have a few things to say about it below. But we were nonetheless persuaded by Mario’s argument, and by comments made by others in the Rick’s Picks forum, that China is doing many important things right, economically speaking. Some Westerners don’t come easily to this notion, since it requires one to put aside very troubling concerns about China’s repressive, authoritarian political regime; for it is both unfortunate and undeniable » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Monday

The Chelsea Effect

by Rick Ackerman on August 2, 2010 12:01 am GMT

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Rick's Picks for Monday
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USU10 – September T-Bonds (Last:128^20)

by Rick Ackerman on August 2, 2010 12:01 am GMT

Because T-Bonds have been dancing smoothly with Hidden Pivots lately, we should assume they are on their way up to at least 130^08 now that they’ve exceeded that Hidden Pivot’s sibling midpoint at 128^05 on a closing basis.  Accordingly, traders should position from the long side — and please note that camouflage opportunities have been cropping up on charts up to the 30-minute level. Use of the single-bar ‘C’ would have been the key to any such trade that panned out.

DIA – Diamonds (Last:104.71)

by Rick Ackerman on August 2, 2010 12:01 am GMT

We are short the August 102/August 98 put spread in a 1:2 ratio three times @ 0.76.  It’s time to write off the likely trading loss of $228, even though we’ll continue to carry the position toward expiration. In retrospect, the loss came from my having missed exiting some long puts on July 7. We had a profit of nearly $1000 in the position at one time and I should have suggested nailing some of it down. Indeed, there will never be a good excuse for not taking at least a partial profit when puts “come home” as they did for us, however briefly (which in the world of put options means three days, tops).

SIU10 – September Silver (Last:18.000)

by Rick Ackerman on August 2, 2010 12:01 am GMT

Silver’s ostensibly sharp rally on Friday, like Gold’s, looks mediocre even on the 15-minute chart.  We should want to see a push this week to at least 18.680 before we take serious encouragement, since that’s where a bullish impulse leg would be generated on the lesser charts. As always, the number of prior peaks surpassed without a pause will be crucial to our assessment of strength (or weakness) in the underlying vehicle.

September E-Mini S&P (ESU10) price chart with targetsFor all of the jacking around on Friday, buyers were unable to create even a single impulse leg on the lowly 15-minute chart. The day’s rallies, such as they were, exceeded one peak but failed to muster the required second, and so we are inclined to see this modest upwardliness as just noise and no more. Even so, to avoid being caught unawares we must monitor two prior peaks on the daily chart carefully, since any unpaused rally that exceeds both would presage more bullish action well into autumn. The peaks lie, respectively, at 1129.50 and 1142.75, so it wouldn’t take much to reinvigorate the bear rally begun nearly a month ago.

GCQ10 – August Gold (Last:1181.50)

by Rick Ackerman on August 2, 2010 12:01 am GMT

August Gold (GCQ10) price chart with targetsGold has backed off a small precipice, rallying from within just 0.60 of a well-advertised Hidden Pivot support at 1155.00.  Look at the accompanying chart, however, and you’ll see that bulls will have their work cut out for them if they want to restore a positive look to the lesser charts. For starters, any rally this week will need to take on external peak #1, and at least one peak “along the wall” (#2=1206.70).  I’ll wait to see what Monday brings before I exhort you to get excited. (Note:  We’ll move to the December contract starting tomorrow. The corresponding peaks lie, respectively, at 1207.50 and 1210.70.)

$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:172.61)

by Rick Ackerman on September 19, 2014 2:16 am GMT

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$DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:17266)

by Rick Ackerman on September 19, 2014 1:52 am GMT

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$YHOO – Yahoo! (Last:42.71)

by Rick Ackerman on September 17, 2014 5:28 am GMT

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$SIZ14 – December Silver (Last:18.655)

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2014 1:25 am GMT

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$SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:22.49)

by Rick Ackerman on September 15, 2014 6:06 am GMT

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$GCZ14 – December Gold (Last:1223.60)

by Rick Ackerman on September 15, 2014 5:50 am GMT

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$TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:113.11)

by Rick Ackerman on September 11, 2014 1:29 am GMT

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$SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.2562)

by Rick Ackerman on September 5, 2014 3:05 am GMT

I first touted Snipp Interactive back in January, when it was trading around 0.15. Although the stock subsequently fell to a dime, it has since rallied sharply, settling at 0.2562 yesterday. This is one of my favorite stocks, and I came away from a conference call with its CEO, Atul Sabharwal, eager to sing their praises. During that call, I hit Atul with my best idea, a sweepstakes-type promotion, but he was already three steps ahead of me, able to cite, for one, New York State’s rules and costs for exactly the type of marketing scheme I’d suggested.

Full disclosure: I hold 100,000 shares plus warrants to purchase another 50,000 shares.  But I hope that won’t discourage you from performing your own due diligence, since you are likely to be as impressed as I was when you find out what the company has been up to. For me, at least, Snipp (OTC: SNIPF) perfectly satisfies Peter Lynch’s rule that investors favor companies whose strengths and methods they can understand. Snipp does interactive marketing that allows clients to track results in real time. The results have been sufficiently impressive that the company has been attracting blue chip clients with little difficulty. Read more about SNIPP by clicking here.

From a technical standpoint, although the stock’s chart history is thin, it’s possible to project a near-term rally target of 0.2730. A tenet of Hidden Pivot analysis is that an easy move through such targeted resistance implies there is unspent buying power percolating beneath the surface. This is not a “hot tip;” indeed, Snipp’s story does not lend itself to the kind of hubris that will result in a $10 billion IPO. But it is an aggressive and imaginative pioneer in a rapidly developing niche, and its CEO has the kind of imagination, intelligence and energy that inspires confidence.

$+TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:279.20)

by Rick Ackerman on September 3, 2014 5:30 am GMT

Tesla’s strong rally has turned the Oct 3/Sep 5 calendar spread into a solid winner. The spread is currently trading on a bid/asked of 4.50/5.07.  This means subscribers who bought the spread for as little as $1.00 last week could have quintupled their stake. The most paid for it would have been about 1.54. In any case, I’ll suggest offering half of the eight spreads to close today for 4.70. We’ll plan on rolling what’s left on Friday by covering (buying) back the September 5 300 calls we’re short and shorting the Sep 12 300 calls at the same time. ______ UPDATE (10:40 p.m. EDT): The stock’s push to an intraday high at 291.42 made the spread an easy sale for $5.00+, so I’ll consider the order filled.  Now, roll the four spreads that remain into the October 3 /September 12 calendar as detailed above. _______ UPDATE (Sep 7, 10:31 p.m.): The midway price on the spread intraday was 2.30. Imputing the premium to the four October 3/September 12 calendar spreads we now hold would zero out the initial cost of 1.54 and add 0.76 to the real-time value of the spread.  We’ll plan on rolling the spread again on Friday by selling the September 19/September 12 call spread (and thereby covering the short Sep 12 300s), but for now do nothing further. _______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 12:54 a.m.): I’ll use a 0.37 price, midway between the intraday high and low, as the spread price unless I hear from someone in the chat room who did better or worse. Imputing this new premium income to our Nov 22 / Sep 20 spread gives us a CREDIT cost basis of 1.13, for a guaranteed minimum profit on the position of $452. That would be in addition to whatever the Nov 22 calls fetch when we exit them.

+GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:37.51)

by Rick Ackerman on September 2, 2014 12:03 am GMT

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