The futures appear to be consolidating around a 425 4/8 midpoint resistance whose ‘D’ sibling lies at 445 2/8. Since most of the price action over the last three days has been above the midpoint, we should infer that a thrust to the target is imminent. Please note that the “softs” are notorious for making such moves either when Pivoteers are sleeping, or in such a way as to be inaccessible via a conservative buy-stop entry. In this case, any print above August 16’s 433 high would create the impulse leg needed to create a possible camouflage opportunity.
From the monthly archives:
August 2010
We hold a long-term position of 800 shares with an adjusted cost basis of 12.95. Although I’d intimated that a resumption of our covered-write strategy would be appropriate when the stock pushed above 20, option premiums are a bit lean at the moment, and so we should wait for a possible thrust above June’s key high at 21.89 before we act. Even if SLW is unsuccessful on the first or second try, put and call prices are likely to get a boost merely from the effort. From a Hidden Pivot standpoint, the stock looks like it’s entitled to at least 21.36 (a Hidden Pivot off the daily chart, where A=17.88 on 7/28) before serious resistance encroaches. The midpoint associated with that number is 20.21, and therefore a logical place to try bottom-fishing with a camouflage strategy. ______ UPDATE: The rally made it to 21.36 but got a little wheezy just above that pivot. Obviously, the stock is taking the measure of June’s key high at 21.89, so we’ll need to be patient. Although SLW’s approach so far may lack for boldness, it is at least game.
A Hidden Pivot target at 476.74 is the number to beat (or at least achieve) for today. Its provenance is shown in the chart, along with an alternative target at 484.23 that should be considered the best-of-all-worlds price objective for this week or early next.
Gold should soon achieve 1236.70, the lower of the two targets given here yesterday, and perhaps even the higher at 1244.20. But it is showing so little gusto in getting there that we’ll need to be on the alert for any change of direction that is signaled on the lesser charts. For today, use 1223.50 as a bearish threshold, since a print at that price would create a negative impulse leg on the hourly chart. Alternatively, take encouragement if the futures vault a minor midpoint resistance at 1232.20 in the early going.
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Well, at least you don’t hear much talk about how this silly rally is a sign of confidence in America’s economic future. More like the only game in town now that the U.S. is perceived as being the last too-big-to-fail debtor on the planet. We shall see. In any case, a Hidden Pivot at 134^09 looks like a potential rally-stopper, implying there’s only a little more upside above yesterday’s 134^01 high. This should correspond to a bottom in yields of 3.64%, my target for TYX, a CBOE proxy for 30-Year T-Bond rates.
The rally stalled a single tick above the 18.485 midpoint resistance we used as a bullish benchmark yesterday, leaving the immediate outlook unchanged. The futures must still close above it before we infer that they’re bound for its ‘D’ Hidden Pivot sibling at 19.170.
The chart shown in the inset contains the price coordinates and Hidden Pivot target that worked so nicely for us yesterday, accurately predicting not only the strength that ensued, but nailing the intraday high of a $13 thrust within 40 cents. If the pattern continues to work, look for a push toward the two targets shown, the higher of which lies at 1244.20.
Downside targets equivalent to the ones given today for the Dow Industrials lie, respectively, at 1062.00 and 1035.00. Alternatively, it would take a print today or tomorrow at 1092.00 to put the squeeze on bears, since that would create a robustly bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart.
Playing ‘Chicken’ with Wal-Mart’s Earnings
by Rick Ackerman on August 18, 2010 6:09 am GMT · 18 comments
DaBoyz managed to squeeze a 100-point Dow rally out of punk Q2 earnings from Wal-Mart and Target, and the gain might have been closer to 200 points had traders not suffered an uncharacteristic anxiety attack in the final hour. Imagine what these bandits could get away with if there were actual good news to leverage. Trouble is, it’s unclear what would even qualify as good news these days. A rebound in employment sufficient to put the economy back on track is almost beyond imagining, since it will take fully eight million new jobs and re-hires just to replace the positions that have been lost so far in the Great Recession. As for a surge in the retail sector, Americans have doubtless wised up to the fact that more consumption will never be the ‘A’ answer. Not that any of us is bursting with eagerness right now to binge on flat-screen TVs, quartz countertops and hot tubs. The news media remain behind the curve on this matter, since each and » Read the full article