With one of the most impressive “stories” driving it of any publicly traded stock, Apple is still trading exactly where it was in April. Do we infer from this market bellwether’s slack performance that the broad averages have also been in a churn? I think so, and we should infer that even the very best companies in America are somewhat limited by the weight of a Depression-bound economy that has hit nearly every sector.
From the monthly archives:
August 2010
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September Silver has two promising uptrends pushing it at the moment: a big one begun from 17.230 on June 6, and a lesser one begun from 17.480 (a one-off low) on July 29. Both are shown in the accompanying chart. The first has already triggered a “buy” and slightly exceeded its 18.460 midpoint resistance, which is bullish. The second has also triggered (yesterday, at 18.100) but has yet to test midpoint resistance at 18.405. Let’s be conservative and stipulate that the futures close above that last number before we infer that liftoff is in progress. A two-day close above the 18.460 midpoint of the larger pattern would imply SI is unstoppable and bound for at least 19.595.
A Hidden Pivot at 1225.50 (see chart) seems likely to be reached because its sibling midpoint at 1209.00 was decisively punctured by yesterday’s upthrust. Keep your fingers crossed for an easy move through the target, though, since that’s what it will take to put bulls on the advantage come Sunday night. “Easy” in this instance implies a penetration, by at least $1, within 15-20 minutes of when the resistance is first encountered by buyers.
The Indoos may have seemed resilient yesterday, but they got shoved down far enough intraday to extend Wednesday’s selloff into a bearish impulse leg on the daily chart (see inset). Predicting where to get short for the next leg down would be a shot in the dark at the moment (i.e., Thursday night), since the Dow could rally to as high as 10474 before it sevens out. In any event, I’d suggest using the 15-minute chart to jockey into position to short the 3- or 5-minute chart via “camouflage.” The “15″ divulges, for one, that yesterday’s 10269 low still has 50 points to go before it reaches a clear (clear enough to bottom-fish with a very tight stop-loss, if you please) target at 10219 (A=10678 on August 10 at 4 p.m. EDT; B= 10428 on August 11 at 10 a.m.)
I’d said a close below 1082.00 would augur more downside to at least 1050.75, and so the futures coyly rallied ten points off their lows yesterday, barely meeting my criterion with a close at 1079.25. The price action smells, and tonight’s phony rally has not changed my mind about a 30-point plunge being imminent. Even so, let’s not fail to take heed of the urgent manipulation by DaBoyz yesterday as they attempt to trigger off one more distributive rally before pulling the plug. First, leveraging lousy news from Cisco, there was Wednesday night’s takedown on zero volume. Then, They compounded the crime, pulling out the rug Thursday morning on the opening bar to shake out the last of the Cisco scaredy cats. I doubt there’ll be “good” news sufficient to short-squeeze the nervous Nellies on Friday, but then, DaBoyz need only push the futures to 1092.00 to hang them on the ropes.
[Editor's note: Thursday's commentary drew such a strong reponse that I've extended its run by a day. RA]
We suspected years ago that the day would come when the Fed would have no more room to move. Administered interest rates were bound for zero, and once they got there easing would cease to be an option. Except that we were wrong. Now it turns out the Fed can, and will, ratchet up the desperation meter, already well into the red zone, to new and untold heights, stepping up purchases of long-term Treasury debt with proceeds from the sale of mortgage-backed securities from the central bank’s fatally swollen dumping-ground-of-a-portfolio. Bernanke’s cheering section always said he would do whatever it takes, but perhaps it’s time for them to acknowledge that, in actuality, he is doing not what it takes, but only what he can do, short of triggering a hyperinflation. Surely the Fed chairman’s minions must be disappointed that his latest, unprecedented attempt at stimulus » Read the full article
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Apple has exceeded a minor midpoint support at 250.43 that is associated with a downside ‘D’ target of 246.68. We’ll make that our minimum downside objective for now, but bottom-fishing would depend on our ability to find a camouflaged bullish impulse leg if and when the stock makes the turn. _______ UPDATE (1:46 p.m. EDT): The stock flirted with the Hidden Pivot support all night, bottoming at 246.44 before trampolining off a final, nasty feint down to 246.12 in the opening minutes of the regular session.
Even Hindenburg Omen Is Right Sometimes
by Rick Ackerman on August 16, 2010 12:01 am GMT · 28 comments
The Hindenburg Omen is once again predicting a stock market crash, and we don’t know whether to ignore it and relax because (even) the Wall Street Journal has picked up on it this time, or to instead batten the hatches because sometimes even lousy indicators can be right. Over time, the indicator, invented by a blind mathematician named Jim Miekka, has compiled an unimpressive track record. While virtually every crash since 1987 has indeed been signaled by the Omen, there have been so many false signals that the indicator’s overall accuracy has been a dismal 25 percent. Now, according to Miekka, the Omen is signaling a crash in September, having » Read the full article