Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
From the monthly archives:
September 2010
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
We’re using an important Hidden Pivot at 1340.00 as a minimum upside objective for the near term (i.e., a week or so). Other lesser targets to be encountered along the way and which may show some stopping power useful to scalp-traders include 1313.50 (60m, A=1272 on 9/21) ); and/or 1314.90 (60m, A=1242.30 on 9/13).
At Friday’s close the futures were flirting with the 76.47 midpoint of a bullish price pattern that points as high 79.36 over the near term. Consider the target an odds-on bet if the November contract closes above that Hidden Pivot for two consecutive days.
The futures topped last week a single tick beneath an important rally target at 133^23 given here earlier this month. Just one more tick would have implied the move is quite powerful, since it would have exceeded a visually obscure chunk of supply deposited September 2 on the way down. However, the rally that occurred will suffice to turn the daily chart bullish for the first time since mid-August, since it exceeded the requisite two prior peaks (one of them internal, the other external). Now, ideally, we should see a 1^03-point “booster” rally from anywhere north of 131^00 to signal the next leg up. It could eventually go as high as 136^00. ______ UPDATE (2:11 p.m. EDT): The predicted booster rally has come this morning off a 131^21 low, triggering a “buy” signal at 132^24. Critical resistance lies at 133^27, the Hidden Pivot midpoint of the pattern, but if the futures can close above that number for two straight days, I’d infer they’re on their way up to 136^00.
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
December Silver has blown past a Hidden Pivot at 21.170, suggesting that the conquest of March 2008’s 22.055 peak will be easier than many might be imagining. The thrust would keep the futures on-track to hit a very important target at 22.505 that I flagged here earlier. That’s still my minimum objective, and it is sufficiently compelling that any significant progress above it would imply Silver is on its way to the moon. Even as we allow our bullish imaginations to be stretched, however, we’ll need to monitor pullbacks on the lesser charts very closely, since we don’t want to get trapped in a downdraft. At present, the first (very) small hint of trouble would come on a print at 21.105, since it would create a bearish impulse leg on the 5-minute chart.
Two days’ worth of claustrophobic price action have merely rested bulls, not slowed them. There are numerous minor targets above, but we’ll hold to the one at 1340.00 for now, since it’s a Hidden Pivot with the potential to stop the rally for more than a few hours. Alternatively, December Gold would need to fall $30 today to even hint of trouble on the hourly chart. However, if we use the 5-minute chart as a hair-trigger, it would take 1285.60 to raise the subtlest of doubts.
I’ve proffered targets w-a-a-ay below, but we’d need to go with the bullish flow for perhaps a short while if the Dollar Index pops today above 80.46, a look-to-the-left peak etched into the hourly chart Tuesday on the way down. That would create an impulse leg surpassing no fewer than three prior peaks, but we shouldn’t be too impressed, since it will have taken a day’s worth of pumping to muster the charge.
Wall Street’s Mood Swings Back to Giddy
by Rick Ackerman on September 27, 2010 12:01 am GMT · 11 comments
The Mother of All Bear Rallies wafted on Friday to within easy distance of re-igniting a bull trend that had seemed unstoppable until last spring. Back then, buyers who had driven the broad averages higher for fourteen months at an unsustainable, 45-degree pitch went limp, sending stocks into a vexatious roller-coaster ride of thousand-point ups and downs that have defied easy categorization as either consolidation or distribution. However, the bulls will have a chance to take charge unambiguously on Monday when shares begin to trade, since it will take a mere 60-point rally, to 10921, to turn the Dow’s daily chart bullish. We should note, however, that that wouldn’t quite clinch the bullish case for the longer-term, since a thousand-point rally to at least 11868 is » Read the full article