Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
From the monthly archives:
September 2010
Silver has been showing more energy than Gold lately, a fact that has been reflected in my enthusiastic Silver touts over the last couple of weeks. Late Monday night, the futures were pushing past the 20.185 Hidden Pivot midpoint of the pattern shown in the chart. This implies they are bound for at least 20.445, its ‘D’ sibling, although there are bigger patterns with commensurately higher targets that were identified here earlier. _____ UPDATE (10:25 a.m. EDT): The futures have rallied sharply this morning to exactly 20.445, pulling back by 20 cents thereafter. If they get second wind, look for 20.515.
The reversal from just above the Hidden Pivot support flagged here yesterday is bullish, but December Gold stills need to push above 1258.80 today to ‘actualize’ whatever pent-up buying power exists. More likely is that the futures will hang out lazily for a few more days, but if and when the surge comes, the first Hidden Pivot with stopping power lies at 1264.40. It should be used a minimum upside target, but once above it bulls would have a more or less unobstructed path to at least 1290.90.
‘Dueling impulse legs’ characterize the daily chart at the moment, albeit with a slightly bearish bias. The clear implication is that the down-leg begun on Friday from 82.99 is likely to reach a minimum 81.53 before reversing. A tradable bounce seems very likely from that price because the pattern is so clear, and so I’ve recommended bottom-fishing –with as tight a stop-loss as you’d care to apply. Please note that if the support should be breached more than slightly — i.e., by 0.06 points or more — it would suggest that a larger downtrend with potential to 81.32, or even 79.08, is in play. ______ UPDATE (10:42 a.m. EDT): After taking a whoopee-cushion rally off 81.66, the Dollar Index is sinking once again, presumably to the 81.53 target or lower. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (11:12 a.m. EDT): 81.33 hit on the relapse and is holding, albeit precariously.
Coffee’s fierce rally, now in its third month, may have met its match last week in the form of a Hidden Pivot at 198.80. The actual high at 198.65 came within a hair of the resistance. If the futures should push above the high, however, we could expect the buying to continue all the way up to 197.40. That target is derived from locating a new point ‘A’ where ‘C’ is. _____ UPDATE (2:21 p.m. EDT): Today’s moderate rally hasn’t changed the big picture, although it now seems possible the futures will do a death rattle up to 202.95. You can short there with a tight stop if it happens before Wednesday’s close, but if the order survives you’ll be on your own. (The order expired with the futures having rebounded no higher than 197.60.)
We’ll have a better idea of whether the selling of the last two weeks is the beginning of a bear market or merely a correction of the long-term bull if and when the downtrend hits 128^05, a Hidden Pivot that can serve as our minimum downside objective for the near term. An overshoot of as little as 3-4 ticks would warn of more weakness to come, and a close below the support would be still more bearish. Please note that there is an alternative pivot at 128^17 that could also provide a hidden turning point.
The futures are within easy distance of generating some potent bullish impulse legs on the larger intraday charts, since it would take just a 22-point rally on top of Sunday night’s wilding spree to knock off three — count ‘em, t-h-r-e-e — external peaks. If this were to happen today, bears should accept the possibility that there may be no relief in sight for at least a month.
All of last week’s feeble thrusting did not succeed in pushing the Indoos past August 17’s 10480 high, so let’s not get too excited if it finally happens today. Although that would create a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart, it would not dispel the doubts that seem to be weighing on the blue chip average. A pullback from slightly above 10480 would offer a short-term buying opportunity nonetheless, so traders should look for camouflage in such circumstances. The accompany chart shows one promising way this could unfold. _______ UPDATE (12:28 p.m. EDT): The opening-bar short-squeeze was so hysterical that we didn’t have a chance to get long on such subtleties as I have described above. Detumescence off the morning’s so-far high at 10567 has been swift and punitively steep for anyone who bought the opening.
The futures are taking their sweet old time to develop thrust, but as long as they don’t correct beneath 19.505, a low recorded on September 3, bulls will hold the edge. Major rally targets at 21.630 and 22.505 given here earlier remain valid, but we should use a lesser Hidden Pivot at 20.710 as a minimum upside projection for Monday/Tuesday.
Idaho Gold Miner a Speculative Buy
by Rick Ackerman on September 14, 2010 3:14 am GMT · 13 comments
End-of-summer travel delayed this report on Premium Exploration (TSX symbol: PEM) by a week, although we did issue an informal “buy” recommendation on the junior miner in the Rick’s Picks chat room a couple of weeks ago. The Canadian-listed stock was trading for around 45 cents a share at the time but has since moved up as high as 57 cents, where it closed yesterday. Based on technical analysis, we’re projecting upside potential over the near term to 64 cents, or perhaps 67 cents if any higher. These projections have a horizon of about 2-3 weeks, but there are longer-term forces at work that augur still higher prices.
Stock charts aside, we rate Premium’s shares a high-potential speculative bet for the long-term. The company is well managed under CEO Del Steiner, and its Idaho site has yielded some very » Read the full article