Prospects for the dollar have become an obsessive concern in the chat room — and rightly so, since even a hint of strength is going to bring gold and silver prices down hard. For that reason, I will be tracking DXY’s oscillations very closely in the days and weeks ahead.  So far, however, as the dollar has continued to fall, I’ve seen nary a flicker of life.  Promising impulse legs have fizzled like soggy firecrackers, and downtrending ABCs have consistently exceeded their ‘D’ targets.  To me, this spells a continuation of the dominant trend.

Nor am I persuaded by the arguments of some well-regarded chartists who have been calling for a turn. Their bullishness seems to be based on little more than the fact that the dollar has been sold down so hard, and for so long, that, well, it is simply due for a rally.  My response is that it is equally plausible the dollar has finally slipped into the vortex that will take it through all previous supports to scary new lows.  We shall see, but in the meantime let’s keep an open mind. Most immediately, we’ll set a benchmark for today at 77.41.  A rally touching that price will have exceeded two external peaks on the 30-minute chart, one of them a look-to-the-lefter “along the wall” of a steeply declining price bar. A minor pattern (also shown) is already in progress, but it projects no higher than 76.98 if the 76.65 point ‘C’ remains intact. ______ UPDATE (12:45 p.m. EDT):  No surprises.  DXY has topped so far today at…76.97.  Click here  to access Auerbach and Grayson’s latest report, which for purely technical reasons is as bearish on the dollar as I am.