Monday, November 1, 2010

DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:76.87)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Facing an easy opportunity to score last week, the Dollar Index retreated tail-between-legs without even having surpassed October 20's internal peak at 78.36, let alone the "external" I'd drum-rolled at 78.69. Although it would be premature to write off this sorry sack of manure just yet, the failure of the rally to break through resistance must be considered further evidence of the dollar's terminal condition.

GCZ10 – December Gold (Last:1362.50)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The futures easily surpassed the "soft" peak at 1358.90 on the hourly chart, so it is appropriate to shift our focus toward bullish targets rather than worst-case correction scenarios.  Two logical rally objectives shown in the accompanying, hourly chart deserve our attention:  1406.70 and  1427.50.  Their respective midpoints lies at  1361.20 (already surpassed) and 1371.60.  The latter Hidden Pivot ('p') can serve as a minimum upside target for the moment, but if it's exceeded on a closing basis or by more than two points intraday we'll raise our sights to 1406.70.

DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:11118)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

We could see a bearish divergence if the E-Mini S&P pushes past a 1208.00 peak noted in today's tout but the Indoos do not do likewise. "Likewise" in this context implies nothing less than a 749-point rally, since that's what it would take to create a bullish impulse leg on the weekly chart. If this is what in fact occurs, we might let our own "Dow theory" dampen our expectations for a runaway short-squeeze, post-elections. A recalcitrant Dow would not only argue against it, it might be the very force that restrains the S&P 500 from going crazy.

Some Rally!

– Posted in: Rick's Picks

DaBoyz were making their move late Sunday, bidding fair to put a squeeze on mini-index futures that could dash bearish expectations for months to come.  Check out the chart accompanying the E-Mini S&P tout if you want to see how little it would take to create a robustly bullish impulse leg of weekly-chart degree.  On the weekly chart, this rally is uncorrected going back to August!

ESZ10 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1188.75)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The futures are up nine point Sunday evening -- for whatever dumb reason -- but it's not all innocent play, since the move has exceeded Friday's high, 1187.50, and thus sets up this vehicle for an even nastier short-squeeze at the opening.  The (very) crucial number is 1196.50, equal to an important peak made last April on the way down. If it's exceeded,  it seems likely the visually obvious peak at 1208.00 just to the left of it will be exceeded as well.

Someone Must Lose If Debt Is Forgiven

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

Solving the world’s debt problem dominated the discussion in the Rick’s Picks forum over the weekend, with the final word going to “Jill,” who congratulated the group for “putting on their thinking caps and devising some kind of solution rather than just abandoning all hope.”  From where we’re sitting, however, it is only those who have abandoned hope who truly understand the problem.  For in fact, there is no more a “solution” to the world’s debt problem than there is a perpetual motion machine or cold fusion generator to remedy the world’s energy problem. In the end, to restate C.V. Myers’ dictum, every penny of every debt must be paid – if not by the borrower, then by the lender. It’s as simple as that. And much as we’d like to believe that some financial genius will come up with a way to spare us the pain of a Second Great Depression, it ain’t gonna happen. Because the world’s debts total in the many hundreds of trillions of dollars, there is simply no discharging those debts without ultimately ruining the financial lives of most creditors, debtors, or more likely, both. However the unpayable sums are dealt with, as long as contracts are strictly enforced, deflation will continue to attend the process. Under the circumstances, the bankruptcy courts -- as opposed to a political system that may well eventually succumb to an anti-bank, populist tide -- will remain responsible for sorting out which creditors get paid, and how much.  By and large, this would visit pain on borrowers and creditors roughly commensurate with their respective sins of greed, stupidity and recklessness. A Wacky Idea In the forum over the weekend, the wackiest-sounding solution for the debt problem would have the U.S. Government print “debt-free money” that would be distributed to all