January 27th, 2012
Published Daily

From the monthly archives:

February 2011

The news media went zero-for-two yesterday trying to explain on the one hand why stocks fell, and on the other why oil prices rose.  Stocks fell not because of fears over the spread of violence in the Middle East, as the pundits asserted, but because it was time for the Mother of All Bear Rallies, now almost two years old, to keel over and die.  As for the surge in oil prices, although it was blamed on turmoil in Libya, the country exports only a paltry 1.6 million barrels a day. Moreover, our good friends the Saudis promised to make up for any Libyan shortfall by increasing their own output.  Our guess is that oil prices are headed toward $100 a barrel, and then higher, because Saudi Arabian output itself is perceived to be less than absolutely secure. » Read the full article

The Ultimate Suburban Survivalist Guide

by Rick Ackerman on February 22, 2011 8:01 pm GMT

Sean Brodrick is a friend and author of The Ultimate Suburban Survivalist Guide, a book that I have strongly endorsed here in the past. Sean’s is a kinder and gentler sort of survivalism — one which would have us stay put and cultivate our gardens, sharing key responsibilities with neighbors,  rather than fleeing for the hills with a supply of food, water, guns and ammo.

Rick’s Picks subscriber Kurt Corthout has written a review of the book that you may find interesting. Click here to access it. Other reviews can be found on Amazon, where the book can be purchased new for as little as $7.99.

CLH11 – March Crude (Last:93.48)

by Rick Ackerman on February 22, 2011 7:40 am GMT

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Silver now saying $36+

by Rick Ackerman on February 22, 2011 7:26 am GMT

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GCJ11 – April Gold (Last:1398.50)

by Rick Ackerman on February 22, 2011 7:22 am GMT

Monday’s impressive run-up all but clinched the case for a test over the near term of the 1434.10 all-time high recorded in December. More immediately, night owls can try bottom-fishing at 1400.50, stop 1399.90. That’s the ‘d’ target of a minor correction derived from the pattern shown in the chart. _______UPDATE (3:14 a.m. EST):  We were stopped out for a theoretical loss of $60 when the 1400.50 pivot evinced no support whatsoever. This implies more weakness ahead to a minimum 1396.20, a Hidden Pivot that can be bottom-fished with a three-tick stop-loss.

SIH11 – March Silver (Last:33.580)

by Rick Ackerman on February 22, 2011 7:07 am GMT

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YMH11 – March E-Mini Dow (Last:12073)

by Rick Ackerman on February 22, 2011 6:38 am GMT

We shorted 12355 and took a partial profit on the 29-point pullback that ensued. I’ll assume that any subscriber who took the trade covered on a feint later in the day to 12379, but if you stayed short, please let me know in the chat room or at rick@rickackerman.com so that I can establish a tracking position of two contracts for your further guidance. In any event, as suggested with the E-Mini S&Ps, you should look for opportunities to re-short this vehicle at the ‘p’ midpoint or ‘d’ target of any minor, upward abcd retracement that occurs. In addition, I’ll be posting explicit entry instructions for subscribers here and in the chat room if I spot a compelling opportunity intraday.

ESH11 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1327.00)

by Rick Ackerman on February 22, 2011 6:28 am GMT

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Just when we were starting to adapt to living in these accursedly interesting times, the times have waxed positively exciting. Uh-oh. Who’d have believed that the full-tilt political battle going on in Wisconsin would get pushed below the fold by riots in…Tripoli? And yet, that’s how the news was played over a weekend stretched to three days by a Monday holiday. From a news perspective, one of the most interesting things about both of these watershed events is that their respective outcomes seem predictable.  In Wisconsin, as well as in every other state where the issue is put to a legislative vote, the public-employee unions seem likely to lose simply because the states are bankrupt — or soon will be if existing salary and benefit agreements are not either voided or cut back drastically. » Read the full article

GCJ11 – April Gold (Last:1384.10)

by Rick Ackerman on February 18, 2011 3:35 am GMT

April Gold (GCJ11) price chart with targetsA Hidden Pivot target at 1394.80 remains viable as a minimum upside objective for the near term, but please note that it is closely coincident with a distinctive high at 1394.70 recorded on January 13.  What this implies from an analytical standpoint is that any thrust that gets past both resistances easily will be telegraphing a test of December’s all-time high, 1434.10.