Wednesday, March 16, 2011

We hold 400 shares bought yesterday for 50.40. For now, do nothing further.

The Euro is gunning for a very shortable target of 1.4237.  America's primary exports, namely its currency and its government debt securities, caught a short-lived bid during Tuesday's market turmoil, a flight to "quality" which didn't last long.  The Euro mirrored the dollar, and by the end of the day had turned back up and surpassed an important midpoint pivot which, on Monday, had terminated a strong rally with exactly one pip to spare.  That reversal was good for almost 150 pips, but by late Tuesday the midpoint had been surpassed, leaving its sibling D target of 1.4237 as the next objective.  Given that the Europeans probably don't want their currency too high, for reasons of export competitiveness, traders should welcome any opportunity to short this Hidden Pivot. (Posted by Doug McLagan)  _______ UPDATE (March 22):  The 1.4237 target caught an important high within eight ticks, anticipating today's nasty drop from 1.4229 to a so-far low of 1.4144.  "Camouflage entry" was very tough to come by, even on the very lesser charts, but officially we did nothing.

The e-mini S&P500 futures look bearish, with active targets at 1257.25 and 1231.00.  U.S. stock indices fell sharply during the early morning hours yesterday, doing significant technical damage to their respective charts.  S&P500 futures had already begun a downward impulse wave on the daily chart as of Friday, but yesterday they swept past several more external prior lows, intensifying the strength of the move.  A robust pattern on the 360-minute chart (A=1307.75) has been confirmed and is aiming for a midpoint pivot at 1257.25 and, if below there, to its sibling D target of 1231.00.  Traders bottom-fishing that level should consider putting stops at 1229.75, just below the round number.  These targets will remain valid so long as 1283.75 is not revisited.  As in the gold and silver markets (among others), camouflaged shorting opportunities could prove very rewarding.  (Posted by Doug McLagan)

Silver appears headed for a pivot at 33.045 after a rough Tuesday for the bulls.  Unlike gold, silver impulsed down on the daily chart yesterday.  After making its low, it bounced by more than a dollar an ounce and then slipped back down far enough to confirm a D target at 33.045 (hourly chart, A=35.340).  This pivot is reasonably well-hidden and might produce a bounce with help from traders front-running the $33 level.  The bearish impulse of daily magnitude suggests that traders look for camouflaged shorting opportunities, especially at moments when rallies seem to be hitting resistance.  (Posted by Doug McLagan)  ________ UPDATE (10:03 a.m.):  The futures have rallied through the "C" point associated with our 33.045 target, which is now cancelled.

After yesterday's sharp selloff, the gold chart is rife with potential bearish targets.  Gold impulsed down yesterday on all intraday timeframes, but due to certain vagaries of Hidden Pivot methodology, it did not do so on the daily chart.  Those nuances make a print at 1351.3 or lower necessary to confirm an impulse wave of daily magnitude, as things stand.  Amusingly, the lowest target that we can find on the chart would accomplish that with one tick to spare, as pictured on the attached chart.  As the attachment further shows, we have our choice of "A" points, so it is difficult to specify levels to bottom-fish.  Pivoteers should examine the 30-minute, hourly, and 120-minute charts in particular and use their intuitive vision (and prudent order-setting protocols) in the bottom-fishing endeavor.  Martin Armstrong might not join us in so doing even if he could, but we'll manage long positions nimbly in case his temporary bearishness pans out.  If he were a pivoteer, he'd be looking for camouflage to get him safely into a short position for the ride, and we should consider doing likewise if the opportunity presents itself.  (Posted by Doug McLagan)