The hubris and bold mindlessness attending this rally is a theme I've already beaten to death, so let's focus for now solely on the "technicals" (which is what we always do anyway). With yesterday's short-squeeze in the final moments of the session, the futures exceeded a 1313.25 pivot where "key resistance" had been precisely anticipated. Now, we should shift our gaze to the next, 1324.50 -- or to 1334.25 if the lower number is breached by more than three ticks. That last Hidden Pivot, the end of the line for targets derived from the lesser charts, can be shorted with a stop-loss at 1335.25. Please note, however, that there is an equally compelling pivot (see inset) at 1336.50, but it is too close to mid-February's important highs to yield a trading edge. Whatever occurs, the cluster of hidden resistance points begs to be shorted, preferably using camouflage.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Gold, Silver, Looking for a Launching Pad
– Posted in: Rick's PicksBullion looked lower Monday night, but I've provided bullish trigger thresholds in Gold and Silver in case the good guys are able to turn things around. The weakness should be viewed as searching for a good launching pad.
GCM11 – June Gold (Last:1420.60)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksIf a minor midpoint support at 1414.10 gives way, look for this short-term weakness to continue to at least 1403.20, a Hidden Pivot support that you can bottom-fish with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks. However, if the bad guys romp, obliterating the support and another at 1399.40, 1386.50 is probably the worst they can do for now. As of around 3 a.m. EDT, the futures were in an upward correction that could go as high as 1430.20 if it gets past the midpoint at 1424.10. This is predicated on the 'C' low at 1418.00 remaining intact.
ESM11 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1304.00)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksWe should know soon whether the selloff in the final hour was prelude to a bear trap, since the weakness has tapered off to nothing Monday evening. If the so-far moderate decline merely provides running room for DaBoyz to apply the ol' short squeeze, you should infer they are capable of moving this sludge-bag to as high as 1324.60 within the space of 90 or so minutes. In the process, key resistance would occur at 1313.25, a Hidden Pivot midpoint, as long as 1301.75 (aka point 'C') has not been exceeded to the downside.
ECM11 – June Euro (Last:1.4069)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksA minor, corrective rally looked bound for 1.4096, a midpoint resistance, but if the futures get past it they should be presumed bound for at least 1.4141, its 'd' sibling. If this occurs, it will brighten the prospect of a further ascent to as high as 1.4379 over the near term.
DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:76.22)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksAll of yesterday's gratuitous chop took place beneath a not-very-initimidating peak recorded on St. Patrick's Day, casting doubt on buyers' resolve -- the moreso because they had the wind at their backs from the central banks' interventions against the yen. I'm inclined to write off any seeming strength in the dollar as a flash-in-the-pan, but we should nonetheless remain open-minded to the possibility of a modest pop above 76.46 that would reinvigorate the hourly chart.
