Thursday, March 31, 2011

I'm still looking for a potentially important top just above these levels -- and suggesting, for starters, that you short 1334.25 with a one-point stop-loss. There's another compelling Hidden Pivot slightly above it, at 1336.50, but that one -- or any rally that surpasses it slightly -- would need to be shorted via camouflage due to the close proximity of previous highs (aka "structural resistance") recorded in mid-February. _______ UPDATE (2:43 a.m.):  My knack for making dumbfounding mistakes in the worst places produced a recommendation to short this vehicle at 1324.25.  It was 1334.25 that I'd intended, and I have change the number above accordingly.  The position can be scratched at the moment, since the futures are flatlining at 1324.50.  I apologize for the error.

The chart shown got some close scrutiny during a recent tutorial session, and I am still strongly suggesting that you look to get short at exactly 12409, a compelling Hidden Pivot target that sits "in the middle of nowhere," just the way I like 'em.  We also discussed how the futures blew through the 12259 midpoint resistance, affirming that the higher number is extremely likely to be reached before buyers reach the point, possibly, of terminable fatigue.

Night owls could have taken an exhilarating 87-cent ride from within a penny-and-a-half of yesterday's low if they'd used the Hidden Pivot support at 36.915 I'd flagged.  A subsequent update based on a rally target at 38.605 advised a 40-cent trailing stop that would have triggered at 37.370, yielding a theoretical gain of $2275 per contract for any long position held at that point.  Tonight, your best odds for bottom-fishing would come at exactly 37.245, the Hidden Pivot midpoint of the corrective pattern shown.  Notice that I have used a distinctive one-off 'A' rather than the obvious one to produce this target. ______ UPDATE (12:36 p.m. EDT):  The futures bottomed 13 cents above the support noted above, and although that is prospectively a bullish sign for the near term, the rally has bogged down Thursday with the creation of "dueling impulse legs" on the hourly chart.  This suggests that it could be another day or two before the May contract resumes its upward trek.  The minor bull cycle projects to 38.850, a Hidden Pivot that would become an odds-on shot if the futures settle today above its sibling midpoint, 37.645.

The futures held above a 1411.00 midpoint support yesterday, sparing us whatever anxiety we might have felt if the slippage had continued to the Hidden Pivot's 'd' sibling, 1397.00. The subsequent rally created a minor, bullish impulse leg, but it was later neutralized by the minor, bearish leg that followed. Thursday's action looks like a coin-toss at the moment, but night owls can nonetheless try bottom-fishing at 1417.70, stop 1417.30. _______ UPDATE (12:2 p.m. EDT):  The correction reversed well shy of the 1417.70 midpoint, telegraphing the strong rally that has followed. It projects to 1473.10, subject to a possible stall near a Hidden Pivot midpoint at 1442.30. A two-day close above that number would augur a smooth flight to the target.