Tuesday, June 21, 2011

A powerful rally has punched through minor, sundry Hidden Pivots and now bids fair to reach 28.400 over the near term (see inset).  A close above that number would augur 35.66.  The midpoint of the lesser pattern's C-D leg is 26.495, and because it will now tend to act as support, that's where Pivoteeers should look for an entry spot if the opportunity arises.  Globally, so much sugar acreage has been replanted with other crops that it's possible the bull market begun in 2008 is just getting warmed up.

A short squeeze on extremely thin volume is accomplishing during the night session what buyers could not accomplish during the day -- i.e., pushing the futures above Friday's 1277.25 high to generate a fresh, bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. Any camouflaged trading opportunities initiating entry with-the-trend will likely come from the impulsive pattern that I've fleshed out hypothetically on the hourly chart (see inset).  If the actual move as of 3:35 a.m. EDT goes more than a few ticks higher than the current 1279.50, however, opportunities to board the easy way are apt to diminish. A time-stopped entry may be necessary, with a buy-stop at 'x' taking a quick exit after, say, 30 seconds if no liftoff is forthcoming. _____ UPDATE (10:59 a.m. EDT):  The rally matched my sketch almost exactly, although, strictly speaking, the absence of a single-bar 'C' on the intraday charts would have precluded taking the 'buy' signal at point 'x'.

Yesterday's constructive price action warrants raising the minimum upside target for the near term by six cents, to 36.535.  Night owls should look for camouflaged buying opportunities on a pullback to the 35.895 midpoint resistance, which is now hidden support.  Please note that a rally achieving the target would surpass two 'external' peaks along the wall of the June 10-13 selloff, presumably breathing new life into the bull trend. _______ UPDATE (10:55 a.m. EDT) ): The pattern played out almost precisely as shown, reaching a so-far high today of 36.530.  The final pullback overnight before the futures took off was to 35.975, however, making it more difficult to attempt camouflage by-the-numbers.

Unfurl August Gold's 480-minute chart and you begin to understand why this now seven-week-old correction is taking its sweet old time.  A clear bullish pattern projecting to 1582.70 took fully nine months to play out, culminating in an early-May spike that begged chastisement. We note as well that the actual high at 1577.70 fell $5 shy of the predicted top, auguring a period of penance more prolonged than we might have expected if the target had been reached or exceeded. The shortfall, slight though it was, will require us to pay particular attention to downtrending abcd correctionss, since bear markets typically begin with a missed rally target of intermediate degree. In this case, however, the first significant pullback turned from within less than $1 of a key midpoint support -- exactly what bulls might have asked for if they were looking for solid evidence that the selloff was "healthy." Since then, we've witnessed a strong rally in May, followed by the stagnation of "dueling impulse legs" since. Such price action demands cautious bullishness and, on the lesser charts, attention to details that eventually will either confirm or refute our still-bullish outlook for the long-term. Incidentally, if you don’t subscribe to Rick’s Picks but would like to know more about the proprietary camouflage trading technique that we use to keep entry risk to a bare minimum, click here for information about the Hidden Pivot Webinar in late June.  You could also take a free week’s trial subscription that will give you access not only to detailed trading recommendations each day, but to a 24/7 chat room that draws experienced traders from all over the world.

AAPL has looked like hell recently, but if any stock is capable of leading a turnaround it is this one.  Let's try bottom-fishing at the 317.39 'D' target shown in the chart, since it looks like a good one. Specifically, I'll recommend buying two July 335 calls if and when stock gets within 15 cents of the target.  Stop yourself out if the calls trade for 20 cents less than you paid for them. ______ UPDATE (11:13 a.m. EDT): The stock opened on a gap slightly below the target, very strongly implying there were still lower prices to come (as indeed there were). The calls first traded at 3.35 but touched our stop within a minute, generating a theoretical loss of $40 plus commisions. Today's so-far low came within 11 cents of a major target at 310.39 (240-minute chart, A=364.90 on February 16, B=320.16 on April 18), so there's a good chance we've seen an important bottom. However, if there is one last feint lower, it would be to 306.19, a Hidden Pivot that you can bottom-fish as you please. _______ FURTHER UPDATE:  We'll put this one aside for now, since it appears that the 310.39 pivot marked a potentially important swing low.