July 2011

CZ11 – December Corn (Last:688.50)

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

December Corn looks like it's staging for a 10% rally, the technical basis for which is shown in the accompanying chart. Although camouflage opportunities are not readily apparent on the 'hourly,' I'll recommend zooming down to perhaps the 30- or 15-minute bars if you're eager to improvise a camouflage entry at these levels. An entry signal has already been tripped on charts of larger degree, but the futures have not yet taken off.  Please note as well that there is specific Hidden Pivot risk you should be aware of, since there's a weak corrective abcd pattern also at work with a 675.50 midpoint support and a 658.25 'd' target. (60m, A=698, B=663.25, and C=693.) _____ UPDATE (12:51 p.m. EDT): The futures have taken a header this morning, smashing the midpoint support identified above and trading as low as 665.50.  The 658.25 target remains valid for bottom-fishing, but it should only be attempted using the "camouflage" technique. If you'd rather try to get long with a straight bid and a very tight stop-loss, try it at 652.50, a 'd' Hidden Pivot target derived from the July 19 peak at 703.75. That's my maximum downside objective for the near term, although it's possible the futures will turn from above it and you'll miss the trade.

SIU11 – September Silver (Last:39.780)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

All signs were pointing lower at day's end, presumably toward an SIU rendezvous with the structural support of a 38.865 low recorded a week ago. Bulls would get relief, however, and new energy, if the futures can muster a pop above a 40.670 peak-let recorded Wednesday on the way down.  Were that to occur, we'd be looking early next week for follow-through to at least 41.940.  That's the Hidden Pivot target of the pattern, on the 15-minute chart, A=38.865 (July 22), B=41.465 (July 27), and C=39.340.  The p midpoint lies at 40.640 and can be used as a secondary benchmark to sniff out incipient strength.

How Hidden Pivots Work in Real Time…

– Posted in: Rick's Picks

Curious about what Hidden Pivot Analysis can do in real time?  Check out the video below, An Impromptu Hunt for Trades. The recording was made Thursday morning as we watched Silver Wheaton, the S&Ps, the Mini-Russell and other popular trading vehicles go through their paces. Although recordings of these online, impromptu trading sessions would ordinarily be made available only to paying subscribers, we've published this one in response to numerous queries we received recently about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar on August 10-11.  Incidentally, there are still a few seats left -- and a $50 discount if you sign up now.

GCQ11 – August Gold (Last:1628.40)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Four days of sideways tedium are hardly conducive to speculation concerning when the next upside breakout will occur. Putting the question of timing aside, however, the move will be clearly signaled if and when the futures pop above the 1621.40 peak "along the wall" that is highlighted in the accompanying chart. At that point, a 1648.80 rally target given here earlier would be well in play, along with pullback opportunities near the 1625.60 midpoint. ______ UPDATE (1:45 p.m. EDT): We'll roll into the December contract shortly, but for now, please note that a Hidden Pivot at 1650.30 is equivalent to the one at 1648.40 that we've been using as a minimum upside target for the near term for the December.

ESU11 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:1295.25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

We'll put aside foolish concerns and simply watch today, since the trading tantrum that has occupied the entire week has simply brought the futures down to a too-obvious support at 1291.25, the July 18 low. If it's breached, Hidden Pivot supports may still be useful for setting up scalp-trades and bottom-fishing (or getting short), but the more powerful influence by far will be the by-then magnetic low near 1258 recorded in late June.

We’ll Take 13-to-1 Odds Against a Weekend Deal

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

Bullion and the broad averages went their separate ways yesterday, each reflecting the failure of our elected leaders to break the deadlock over a debt ceiling. Perhaps we can save Wall Street’s speculators some anxiety by reminding them of what the outcome will be – i.e., a political compromise that will leave in place nearly all of the problems that the debate over America’s fiscal policy was supposed to settle. Given that nothing of substance is coming, we should expect stocks, gold and silver to resume the uptrends they were in before the news media started to confuse the picture with loose speculation about lowered credit ratings, a U.S. default, the curtailment of government services, massive public-sector layoffs and a whole bunch of other things that were never, ever going to happen. About the only thing that remains uncertain at this point is whether the legislative sausage we should all expect will be extruded literally at the eleventh hour on Monday; over the weekend – most probably on Sunday; or perhaps at some later date by way of an “extension” (Now that’s something Democrats and Republicans can agree on!)  Our hunch is that the deal will be struck Sunday night, and if you want to bet on it you can get pretty good pass-line odds at InTrade.  As of around 8 p.m. EDT Thursday, wagering on the site implied there’s a 7.5 percent chance that Congress will increase the debt ceiling to at least $15.1 trillion before midnight Sunday. 13-to1 sound like a pretty good odds to us, but they seem to be getting juicier by the hour, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see them go to 20-to-1 or higher if there’s still no deal in place when the NYSE shuts down for the weekend today at 4:00 p.m.

Video: An Impromptu Hunt for trades in Real Time

– Posted in: Links

In this impromptu session conducted Thursday morning, we looked for real-time trading opporunities in the E-Mini S&P, the Mini-Russell, Silver Wheaton and some other vehicles. These sessions are open to all Rick's Picks subscribers, although this recording is being made available to the public. Subscribers can be notified when the impromptu sessions are about to begin, and receive trading alerts intraday, by signing up on the "Contact Us" tab at the top of this page. A free trial subscription is also available by clicking on the link near the upper left-hand corner.

ESU11 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:1300.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

My bullish bias for the last three weeks was based on the seemingly irrepressible power of the impulse leg initiated in late June from 1257.  By now, however, it would appear that the epic fight on Capitol Hill is coming close to repressing bull-mania, if not stopping it altogether.  Are we seeing the long-awaited collision between the irresistible force of a global money blowout and the immovable object of a looming Second Great Depression? Perhaps. Whatever the case, there is no denying the weight of supply that began accumulating in February, when the broad averages embarked on a volatile move sideways that may finally be ready to give up the ghost.  Even so, and strictly speaking, the bullish impulse leg remains intact, and even a further selloff to 1284.50 would merely corrected it in normal abcd fashion.  Whatever happens, there are no big-picture trades to consider -- unless we want to look at put butterflies well below these levels. And it's possible we shall. For the time being, though, and until stocks take a possible last-gasp leap on news of whatever rancid deal is hatched on Capitol Hill, we'll simply back away.

SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:37.27)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

With SLW under heavy selling yesterday, we initiated the long side of our butterfly spread, buying four September 42 calls for 1.32 and four September 50 calls for 0.26. Now, we'll look to sell eight September 46 calls short for 0.79, presumably on a day when Silver Wheaton shares are doing better.  A sale at that price would give us four "free" butterflies, and therefore no risk.  For comparison, if we were to short the September 46 calls at their current price of 0.50, the resulting butterfly position could do no worse than lose $58 per spread, or a total of $232 (plus commissions).  The maximum profit, based on a short sale at 0.50, would be $300 per spread -- so we'd be getting 3-to-1 odds against an SLW rally into the mid-40s between now and September 16.  I think we can do better, and that's why we'll hold off shorting the September 50 calls for the time being. Those who monitored the trade will know that things could have turned out far worse if we'd chased the options. The September 42s trade as high as 1.90 yesterday, and although the 1.32 we paid for them was not the best price of the day, it's only 18 cents above the intraday low.  As for the September 50 calls,  even with SLW shares getting shellacked, they fell no more than a nickel below where we'd bought them after trading as high as 0.35.  Regarding the stock, as I noted during yesterday's Hidden Pivot tutorial session, we should brace for more downside to at least $36, where a familiar trendline comes in as potential support.  Although it's hard not to notice the perfect head-and-shoulders formation that SLW has traced out since late 2010, I'd suggested not worrying about it for now, if

SIU11 – September Silver (Last:40.250)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The futures looked to be in cruise mode well above a minor Hidden Pivot resistance at 41.110 when doubts struck yesterday.  The ensuing tumble did no damage whatsoever to the hourly chart, although that could occur today with just a little more downside to 39.820. The importance of that number is shown in the chart, and as you can see, a move that touches it will have created a bearish impulse leg that could put Friday's action in jeopardy.  However, it would take a print at 38.210 to negate the 42.110 rally target given here earlier.