Wednesday, July 6, 2011

To jolt myself out of summer doldrums, I've packed today's touts with action-oriented information and analysis.  A trade in September Silver triggered just as I was publishing the tout, but there were still two key price points left where night owls might be able to jump aboard.

Close scrutiny of September Silver's rally on the 240-minute chart suggests it's a buy at 35.755 despite the gang's-all-here rally earlier in the day.  That number is the 'X' entry point of the pattern shown, and although we typically avoid getting aboard when the entry trigger is as obvious as this one, the pattern in every other respects meets our criteria for a money-maker: three single-bar coordinates; a B-C- pullback whose shallowness matches the k-A segment; and the legitimacy of an A-B impulse leg that has exceeded the required two prior peaks.  The entry price lies just a single tick above tonight's so far high, and if you decide to use it, you may need to be quick.  ____ UPDATE (2:24 a.m. EDT):  Unfortunately, it is not possible to trade and tout at the same time. In this case, Silver blasted past my entry point as I was clumsily typing out the tout.  Anyway, the 36.210 'p' and 37.120 'D' remain valid and are as yet unachieved -- possible opportunities for the deft camouflageur.  This pattern is of the 'What Are You Waiting For!? variety, a point of strong emphasis at recent Webinars. The idea is that if an ABCD formation has everything going for it rules-wise, you should simply trust your eyes and jump on the trade without giving it further thought. (Want to learn how to trade confidently and forecast with uncanny precision?  Consider taking the Hidden Pivot Webinar on August 10-11. For a $50 discount, click here.)

Gold looks revved for a thrust above the important external peak at 1526.50 shown in the chart.  Although that would hardly guarantee a rally to new all-time highs, it would almost surely get the August contract out of the danger zone for now. A breakout might make camouflage tricky to leverage, but keep in mind that it is exactly at such times that Hidden Pivot analysis shines, transforming a graphical picture of panic into the subtle ABCD patterns that we should love to trade.

Despite yesterday's feeble price action, I'll stick with the 1382.25 target given here earlier. The futures may have hesitated because there was no alleged "news" sufficiently stimulating to stir bears from their post-holiday torpor. However, when they regain their awareness that the Mother of All Bear Rallies is still indeed a threat, expect them to forge a powerful new impulse leg with a breakout above the key 1342.50 peak shown.

We'll keep an eye on this vehicle in case it tries something sneaky, but the bigger picture -- one of dueling impulse legs -- hints of yet more consolidation in the weeks ahead. To be sure, the overall look of the chart is bullish for at least the intermediate-term; however, the failure of point 'B' to surpass the 76.61 peak recorded four months earlier hints that any breakout from the pennant is destined for mediocrity, not greatness.

GORO looks like it has farther to fall, to at least 19.20 --about 15% below these levels. The good news is that we may get a great buying opportunity if and when the stock gets there. Officially, we'll look to acquire at-the-money calls at that time, with the expiration month yet to be determined.  Unofficially, we'll try to initiate a camouflage long when the target is approached, since that can give us an entry opportunity even if GORO does not make it down to the target. Camouflageurs should also be on the alert for shorting opportunities if the current rally pushes up to the 23.97 midpoint of the pattern shown in the chart.

Because there is evidently still some chat-room interest in this stock, I took a look at a bigger-picture chart to see what's going on.  Lo, the 2.75 bottom recorded just before the rumor mill shifted into high gear early in May fell just two ticks from a major Hidden Pivot 'midpoint' support. Since I don't have a crystal ball, I won't speculate on whether that support will contain the current dive. However, I can assure you that if the pivot is decisively breached, Kodak is headed down to at least 1.47, the midpoint's 'D' sibling. It's all in the chart, as you can see for yourself.

Gold and silver showed some spunk yesterday, extending for a third day their steepest rally in nearly ten weeks.  Relative to Friday’s gut-churning lows, August Gold was up $40 yesterday while July Silver has risen $2.22.  The latter was the better performer percentage-wise, gaining 6.6% compared to gold’s still-impressive 2.7%.  Does this portend an end, at last, to the tiresome correction from early May’s summit? We’ll likely know soon, since both metals are an easy rally’s distance from achieving crucial benchmarks identified by Hidden Pivot analysis. (Want the precise, proprietary numbers? Click here for a free trial-subscription, including access to a chat room that hums with trading activity 24/7.)  If our benchmarks are hit, it would generate bullish “impulse legs” on the respective hourly charts of both gold and silver, increasing the likelihood of a sustained move higher. We should note, however, that false starts have plagued bullion since they put in correction lows, respectively, on May 5 and May 12. Those lows came within a whisker of “midpoint pivots” we’d flagged here in timely fashion.  A basic tenet of the Hidden Pivot Method is that corrections in bull markets typically fail to reach the ‘d’ targets of abcd downtrends (see chart above). Bullion’s price action since early May has precisely conformed to this rule, although the lengthiness of the correction is starting to induce the sort of tedium that can send futures quotes soaring or plummeting on a given day for no particular reason. One might infer that bullion traders have grown so bored and frustrated that they will do the kinds of crazy things we all do when tedium tries to wriggle through the narrows of life’s Bollinger Bands. However, there’s a problem with that theory, since it is not humans who are doing most of the trading,