Thursday, July 21, 2011

Our minimum upside objective is 1340.00, the Hidden Pivot midpoint of the pattern shown.  Although a stall there could hint of serious trouble ahead, a two-day close above the pivot -- the outcome that I expect due to the power of the impulse leg from which the target was derived -- would be warning shorts to brace for a possible follow-through to 1388.75 (a.k.a. point 'D').

Early Thursday morning, the futures were acting much as they did the night before, chopping sideways in bullish fashion just above a midpoint resistance. The Hidden Pivot lies at 39.710, and the fact that it has given way portends more upside over the near term to its 'D' sibling, 41.205.  This is all pretty straightforward, but we'll have to wait and see whether the futures play it by-the-book. Night owls should look for 'camo'  cover amidst the cluster of peaks between 40.285 and 40.550 that were etched on the lesser charts Tuesday on the way down.

It's a challenge to keep bullion touts up-to-date, what with all of the gratuitous ups-and-down that have turned a docile bull market into a daily Donnybrook. The 1652.00 target given here earlier is the one we should keep in mind, but as far as the day-to-day, we'll need to compose each tout using a fresh slate, as though nothing interesting had happened the day before. For today, that approach begets us the 1616.80 target shown, subject to midpoint interference at 1598.50.  That Hidden Pivot resistance is not putting up much of a fight, the futures having exceeded it in after-hours trading by 3.90 points. My bias is therefore bullish; however, night owls will not find much cover using the peaks made Tuesday on the way down, since they are all of a piece with the primary top at 1610.70.

We searched Google News in vain Wednesday afternoon for the latest, presumably sordid, developments in the U.S. budget crisis, finding instead only stories about the lethally hot weather that has blanketed much of the U.S., the apparent death of three hikers swept away by a waterfall at Yosemite, and yet one more setback between players and the NFL.  Google’s story-of-the-hour concerned an unlikely Internet hero, Rupert Murdoch’s wife, Wendi Deng, who has come to the media baron’s defense with the ferocity of the proverbial house ablaze. Murdoch’s chief offense, as far as we can tell, is not the sleazy tactics his reporters used to ferret out very private information on certain people, but the blatantly political uses to which he has put some of that information. Not that every politician in the U.K. is his sworn enemy.  Like any businessman who owns a newspaper, Murdoch has played favorites, and it is presumably only those whom his sensationalized reportage did not favor who have mounted an all-out assault on his publishing empire. There are rumors that Soros is behind it all, but if this is true, he is even cleverer and more devious, although not more treacherous, than we’d given him credit for.  It’s one thing for Soros to plot the destruction of a currency, but quite another for him to surreptitiously attempt to maneuver one’s formidably-armed enemy toward ruin.  If Soros has indeed been a prime mover against Murdoch (as he may well have been against Fox network’s fallen matinee idol, Glenn Beck), it is unlikely to be revealed in the explicit manner of accusations that Murdoch brings against him.  Rather, we should expect certain details harmful to Soros’ reputation and his far-flung business empire to dribble out over time.  Moreover, because Soros keeps such a high-profile, it shouldn’t be