Gold’s Surge Predicting Deal Will Be Sausage

Our elected leaders need only look at the chart below to see how the budget stalemate will turn out.  Gold has been rising at an exceedingly steep pitch since early July, implying that whatever deal emerges from the sausage factory on Capitol Hill, it will not much affect the ongoing destruction of the dollar that began in earnest in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve System. The Fed, as we know, was charged with conducting monetary policy and supervising the banking system. However, events of the last few years have allowed the central bank’s directors to expand its mandate to….as Buzz Lightyear would put it, infinity and beyond. The dire implications of this for the U.S. dollar have not been lost on bullion investors and traders, even if conventional thinking would deign to suggest that precious-metal prices have come too far, too fast. But compared to what? Over the last decade, bullion has outperformed just about every asset class you can name. The fact that it is now moving away from the pack of investment also-rans suggests not that buyers have run amok, but that the destruction of the dollar has entered a new and perhaps cataclysmic phase. What will replace the dollar when it utterly fails, as it must? Although gold may not pass political muster right now as America’s and the world’s next choice for money, no one can be certain that it won’t be drafted into the role.  After all, how many tried and true alternatives are there?

In the meantime, we think the bull market has barely gotten started and that penny stocks that have languished for years will trade at ten or perhaps even a hundred times their current values before the bull has run its course. We’re so confident about this that we touted a junior mining stock to our 91-year-old mother the other day. (Click here for a free trial subscription to Rick’s Picks if you want to know the name of this stock and why we like it. It sells for under $2, by the way.)  She had tuned out our investment counsel 30 years ago after a covered write we’d advised caused her Loew’s Corp. shares to be called away.  Then, two years ago this August, when she mentioned in a phone conversation that she had a few investment dollars to spare for something more speculative than the usual blue chip stocks, we leaped at the chance to put her into some promising mining stocks. Our picks were Goldcorp (NYSE Symbol: GG) and Detour Gold (OTC Symbol: DRGDF). The latter was a favorite of gold consultant Chuck Cohen, whose wisdom has been featured here many times. When we asked him for ideas, we made clear that this particular selection had to be a sure thing. Of course, there are no sure things in the investment world, but as anyone who has followed either of those stocks will know, things worked out great for Mom nonetheless.  We got her out of the stocks near the May top, and so she’ll be playing with the house’s money, so to speak, if she decides to take another plunge.

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  • JJ July 28, 2011, 6:58 pm

    Rick, whats your basis for more bull run? Is it more QE and inflation as your reasoning. Without those factors, the DOW seems overvalued.

  • Gary Godec July 28, 2011, 2:46 pm

    We talk about soaking the rich. Lets do it! Now the Federal government has profits of 2 trillion dollars per year.
    2.02 trillion dollars in revenues less $200 million for the IRS to collect it. I say with a 99.99% profit margin it is only fair to tax them in a 80% tax bracket. Giving a tax refund of $10,667 to every tax payer. The CEO, Mr.Obama, said the rich should pay there fair share. So I’m for soaking the rich.

    Gary Godec
    (number are rough estimates)
    A joke, that not really a joke.

  • mario cavolo July 27, 2011, 4:59 pm

    Wow. 10:55pm Shanghai time…

    Suddenly in less than a minute, gold plunges $10 , equities and oil spike upward. Yet the USD and bonds didn’t budge….so, er um, where did that buying magically appear from?

  • gary leibowitz July 27, 2011, 2:43 pm

    Since you love those charts to prove your point, like how th top 5 percent carry such a burden on tax outlays, you forgot to show the actual growth in their income. Staggering compared to the middle class.

    But I digress. Concerning the 2 parties and how they manage to spend our money, you would be shocked to find the huge disparity between the two parties. Can you guess which party really knows how to throw one?

    http://www.safehaven.com/article/21902/washington-had-a-spending-problem

    • John July 27, 2011, 3:55 pm

      Gary this is how CBO estimates work ,Garbage in Garbage out. Their estimates are bunk. All those nice graphs are a waste of time ,if you input false data which is what they do.http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/21/opinion/21holtz-eakin.html

      Besides this blame game and finger pointing is childish. Here is a FACT for you the last presidents that left office with less debt than when they went in were Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge .At no time at least in the last 100 yrs. has a democrat lowered the debt in his tenure. BOTH parties got us into this mess and we will need them both to get us out. So basically we are screwed. Buy gold.

  • John Jay July 27, 2011, 12:50 pm

    Benjamin,
    Don’t under estimate the greed of the Federal government. Look at the ten 1933 gold $20 Double Eagles they kept when that Switt family foolishly showed them to the US Treasury and said “Look what I found”. The government power plays never make any economic sense, but that doesn’t stop them.
    The AfPakIraq wars, TARP, airport searches, etc. go on and on, and if we don’t like them, that’s just too bad.
    Would they send a SWAT assault team to your house at three AM if an informant told them you had a now outlawed gold coin collection? The answer is, yes, of course they would.

    • John July 27, 2011, 3:37 pm

      They would shoot your dog too !

    • Benjamin July 27, 2011, 8:19 pm

      Hi John Jay,

      The Switt case is an interesting one (not the least reason being that the prosecution also had to acknowledge them as money in order to have a case at all!). But I wasn’t arguing against confiscation so much as the impact it would have on prices. I know of three confiscations. In all cases, the gold price did not lower…

      1) FDR: devalued the dollar by raising the exchange rate.

      2) Nixon: Refusing to exchange paper for gold is a form of confiscation. Not along after that default, the gold price went up (even von Mises had surmissed it would go down, but it didn’t behave).

      3): Post-war mining: Whatever happened to all that tonnage that was mined? The general assumption is that it went into private hands, to keep the gold price suppressed by appeasing market demand. I would argue that it was the big commercial and central banks that bought most of it, but the point is that the price didn’t stay down (even though roughly half the gold mined in the last 3 to 5,000 years was bluffed away by the financial powers that be!)

      Now, if there will be a fourth one, why would it lower the price? It won’t. If anything, futures prices will suffer first, allowing gold to go into backwardation…

  • Onoiro July 27, 2011, 10:28 am

    Obama will strike up executive orders raising the debt ceiling to his liking. Consolidating more power to the executive from bypassing the congress not only in making war but also now over the purse. Congress will not challenge him on this either even though it is unconstitutional. The republicans are all for this because they know they are next in line for the throne and will be handed these same powers. Rick Perry (R) will most likely win the presidency.

  • John Jay July 27, 2011, 4:56 am

    PMs have no where to go but up, unless DC confiscates them, or limits trading/ownership to GS/JPM/etc.
    Wouldn’t that be a hoot, if all of us had to sell our PMs to GS/JPM at a ‘fair price” TBD by…..GS/JPM!
    Meanwhile the headline reads: “Fed hints at possible QE3”, “Boston Fed’s Rosengren says, nothing is off the table if the US economy continues to struggle”.
    Possible QE3?
    If the economy continues to struggle?
    Is the Pope Catholic?
    The cover stories created by TPTB and presented by the MSM have sunk past the “I Love Lucy” level, past the “Marx Brothers” level, right to “The Three Stooges” level. Which means no real plot at all, just continued financial mayhem.
    Very disturbing to hear leadership at the highest levels of the Federal government talking complete nonsense every day, and ignoring the real problems or making them worse.
    What’s next, I wonder more and more often.

    • Chris T. July 27, 2011, 6:19 am

      The fact that el presidente kept talking about a “game” being played, when just using that comparison is laughably immature, tells you all you need to know about what he and his handlers believe the intellectual state of the country to be, or else, that speech would never have been given to him in that way.

      And unfortunately, he and his handlers are probably right in their evaluation of the intended audience.
      When you add that audience to the “huh, what?” crowd, you’re not that far from 100%

      Obviously, as bad as things are for most of us, there must still be some who benefit, that’s why it keeps going.
      If those people were to get really hurt by NOT doing some kind of reform, then we will get it.
      Thing is, that there will be meat on them bones until the whole kaboodle hits the wall, so the pecking away will continue, no competent doctor will be permitted a peek.

    • Benjamin July 27, 2011, 8:05 am

      John Jay: “PMs have no where to go but up, unless DC confiscates them, or limits trading/ownership to GS/JPM/etc.”

      I used to worry about that, but we have to remember that the lion’s share of old money (gold mined before the 20th century) has already been seized by governments and given over the central banking system. The gold supply has roughly doubled since those times. Meanwhile, debt levels have gone up many times over what they were back then. So even if new money were seized, the price of gold would still have to go up much higher in order to cover the insanely high levels of government debt.

      At this point, government(s) couldn’t even seize gold-bearing lands, as much of the in-ground gold simply isn’t there anymore. Prices would have to rise in order to reflect the shortage. And even if government got it in mind to seize gold-bearing lands, then lie about what is in the ground… Well, the central banks would want to see it at some point. They’ve never loaned/printed for free. And since it wouldn’t be there in that case either, the gold price goes up!

      Fact is, government is cornered and utterly powerless against rising gold and silver prices.

    • Rick Ackerman July 27, 2011, 8:08 am

      How would one determine that QE2 ever stopped? Hint: The Fed bought more than $3B worth of Treasurys at the most recent auction.