Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Why I like my job

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

News sources speculated that stocks may have given up their hysterical opening-bar gains yesterday because of uncertainty over whether the Senate will indeed vote to extrude the legislative sausage.  One important pleasure of my job is not having to spout bilge like that just because it fits the conventional view of how markets supposedly work.

SIU11 – September Silver (Last:39.505)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Because Silver's last upthrust failed to surpass any new external peaks on the hourly chart, we should view this correction with caution. It'll take a pop to 41.795 to revitalize the 'hourly' bull, or more immediately to 40.440 to hint of a resurgence. Alternatively, a downside breach of 38.660 would be bearish, since that number is akin to the minor correction target 'd' given in today's gold tout.

GCZ11 – December Gold (Last:1622.70)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The action looks toppy, and although I still expect the futures to hit 1650.30 over the near term, we should be extremely cautious if and when that Hidden Pivot is reached. Even more immediately, we'll continue to monitor minor corrective patterns for signs that something worse may be in the offing. That means keeping an eye on the 1607.60 target shown in the chart, since its decisive breach would be warning of possible trouble. Notice my use of a one-off 'A,' a tactic which in this case promises to yield the most accurate midpoint and 'd' target.

IBM – IBM Corp. (Last:180.75)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

IBM plunged more than $5 yesterday after springing a nasty trap on bulls on the opening bar. It worked out perfectly for us, though, because we were able to short two August 170 puts for 1.15 -- slightly less than we paid a while back for two August 175 puts when the stock was trading near its all-time high, 185.63.  The net result is a bearish position that can make us as much as $1000 if we are right but cost us no more than $10 if we are wrong.  In effect, we are getting 100-to-1 odds against the stock's sinking to $170 or lower by August 19.  The cherry on top is that we stand to make $200 per point at expiration for each point IBM is trading below $175 -- just 2.8% below current levels.  This is the only way to play put options, as far as I'm concerned, since no retail customer I have met in nearly 40 years of option trading has made amy real money buying puts.  Better to leg into positions that have almost no-risk and plenty of upside. Now we can forget about it and relax. In the meantime, I will continue to look for trades that even novices can do that have the potential to pay for the cost of an annual subscription to Rick's Picks. Want to learn how to do this trick yourself? Click here for a free trial subscription to Rick's Picks.

ESU11 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:1281.25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Price action in this vehicle is for the nimble and sporting only, since the ups and downs of late have been too vicious to position-trade. Assuming yesterday's low holds, the futures would become faintly interesting on the hourly chart once 1319.00 has been exceeded to the upside on a closing basis. That is a Hidden Pivot resistance associated with a 'D' rally target at 1367.75.

USU11 – September T-Bond (Last:128^25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The steep rally of the last few days is closing fast on a 130^00 target given here earlier, shifting our focus to an even larger ABC uptrend with the potential to push this vehicle to as high as 132^27.  Although its sibling midpoint at 127^16 has already been brushed aside, buttressing the bullish outlook, any pullback approaching it should be viewed as an easy opportunity for camouflageurs to climb aboard.

Time to Pay the Piper

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

[Our good friend Doug Behnfield – by far the savviest financial advisor we know -- was hard at work Sunday, prepping an ultra-rare 1972 Citroen he’s restoring for a $10,000 paint job in Florida. He had just fixed the air conditioner in his wife’s Cayenne – a day’s work that would have cost him $1,200 if the Boulder Porsche dealership had done it. He had also just put the finishing touches on the essay below.  It explains why America is in for some very hard times as we work off debts that have been accumulating for decades.  Doug is no pessimist, however.  Far from it.  He says that although we face a deflationary depression that will exact big sacrifices from all of us, America will be better for it, able to return to the core strengths that made the country great. RA] Genius survives the test of time. Beethoven, the Beatles. The Brothers Grimm, Hans Christian Anderson. T. Rowe Price, Bob Farrell. Stan Salvigsen and David Rosenberg.  The Pied Piper by the Brothers Grimm describes the consequences of stiffing the creditor -- in this case the rat exterminator paid in florins -- after a job well done. The Village of Hamelin loses all of her children (except for the crippled boy who can’t keep up) when the piper lures them to a cave that is sealed up by an avalanche. Grim indeed. Today our Nation is facing the mother of all due bills now that we’ve had our heads extricated from the sand by the Tea Party. Congress and the President have settled on a fiscal restructuring plan that calls for $2.4 trillion in savings over the next decade, an increase in the debt ceiling and the creation of a congressional committee to recommend long-term fiscal reforms. The legislation acknowledges