Thursday, August 11, 2011

High Drama = Low Suspense

– Posted in: Tutorials

This session provided us with a front row seat to yet another dramatic day on Wall Street. The broad averages had been swinging wildly for two weeks, and on this particular day the Dow was down about 400 points after rallying 600 points the day before. Surprisingly, though, there were no bullish impulse legs to be found on the hourly chart, giving us reason to consider why stocks were likely to head lower. We spent the remainder of the session looking at December Gold, which resumed its furious rally as we watched in real time. This held little surprise or suspense for us, though, since we “knew” exactly where the rally was headed: to 1810.70, a middling Hidden Pivot resistance.

A Grab-Bag…

– Posted in: Rick's Picks

The modest upward retracement to 11678 that I'd allowed in yesterday's DJIA tout may be too ambitious, notwithstanding the strong rally index futures are tracing out early Thursday morning. It's a grab-bag of opportunities, but traders will need to be nimbler than any night-before instructions I might give you would allow.

SIU11 – September Silver (Last:38.630)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Our mine canary, Silver Wheaton, seems to be saying September Silver's tortured soul will resolve its angst-ridden crisis with a move higher. If correct, we should expect to see the futures pop above a very small peak at 39.070 made Wednesday on the way down. That would create a bullish impulse leg on the lowly 5-minute chart, although it would not guarantee a bullish C-D follow-through. At the moment, however, bears hold the edge on the lesser charts. _______ UPDATE (3:02 p.m. EDT): The futures have continued on their tortuous path lower, ceding ground after each skirmish sideways. A downside target at 35.660 given here earlier remains possible, predicated on a close beneath its midpoint sibling, 38.030.

GCZ11 – December Gold (Last:11746.30)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

December Gold has somewhat exceeded an 1810.80 target identified during yesterday's online tutorial session, suggesting that bulls will continue to romp. The nearest important Hidden Pivot above the new record high at 1817.60 is 1854.70 (60m, A=1650.30 on 8/5; B=1782.50), so that can be our minimum upside objective for now.  Even so, we should monitor impulsive action on the 5-minute chart, since punitive pullbacks could occur at any time.  As of this moment -- i.e., at around 3:30 a.m. EDT -- the chart was showing 'dueling' impulse legs with a very slight bullish bias. _______ UPDATE (2:47 p.m. EDT): The so-far low of today's mini-crash is 1734.50, but the futures look like they'll have to grope their way down to at least 1727.20 to find traction.  My worst-case low for this cycle is 1708.20, but if the future get down there you should view it as a buying opportunity.

YMU11 – September Mini-Dow (Last:10850)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Savage stupidity held U.S. index futures in thrall early Thursday morning, forcing the Mini-Dow up a little more than 200 points so far. This was not enough to produce a bullish impulse leg on the hourly charts, however, and it suggests that buyers may soon regret their unwarranted display of ebullience. Even so, we'd have to concede they'll have a fighting chance if they can boost the futures above the 11026 peak identified in the chart. Camouflageurs should pay heed, since this could afford an easy opportunity to fun with the mindless herd, if only for a short while.

Comic Relief from Bonnie-and-Clyde Wannabees

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

Comic relief came yesterday in the novel form of a Colorado shootout that put the until-recently-unheard-of Dougherty Gang behind bars and left gun-moll and self-styled redneck stripper Lee-Gracey Dougherty with an exit wound in her leg.  Only in America, as they say.  As we went to press early Thursday morning following an all-day outage of Rick's Picks (and a thousand other web sites served by a Dallas data center that was hit by a power blackout), the Bonnie-and-Clyde wannabees were still the top story on Google news, proving that timing is everything if you want to be an overnight sensation. Wall Street in particular must have welcomed the entertaining story of the Dougherty siblings' interstate armed robbery spree, since, without it, the evening news would surely have been dominated by video clips of trading-floor denizens puking their guts out following a 520-point plunge in the Dow.  However, as of late Wednesday night, it would appear that the traders had lost little time trying to wrest back control of the headlines with their own brand of comic relief:  a 200-point rally in Dow index futures that was continuing into the wee hours on Thursday. We wouldn't be so churlish as to admonish them for their newly reinvigorated faith in America, but shouldn't someone break the bad news to them about the dire condition of Spain and Italy? Meanwhile, the previous, huge dead-cat bounce, a 429-pointer on Wednesday, elicited in the Boulder, Colorado Daily Camera what may have been the most clueless headline concerning the economy that we've seen all year:  Fed Pledge Boosts Stocks.  So, did yesterday's 520-point reversal perhaps occur because somebody discovered the Fed had crossed its short, slimy little fingers when it made that promise? The sub-headline was just as bad: Market Soars After Reserve Vows to Maintain Low Rates

And We’re Back…

– Posted in: Links Rick's Picks

If you tried to visit Rick's Picks yesterday between the hours of roughly noon through 11:45PM EST,  you may have thought our site was down - and you would have been right. Rick's Picks, along with well more than a thousand others, was down due to a power failure in our data center. Much remains unknown as yet about the causes of this event, so a full post-mortem won't be possible until at least tomorrow. But we do know this: a power failure in a class-A datacenter should never happen. Ever. More details will be posted as they become available. We sincerely apologize for the outage, and we greatly appreciate your patience.