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From the monthly archives:
August 2011
The downtrend seemed to struggle late in the session in a so-far failed attempt to grope its way down to the 38.670 Hidden Pivot ‘d’ of the pattern shown. The picture lacks sufficient clarity to offer good odds for bottom-fishing at a ‘p’ midpoint or ‘d’ target, but we can still use 37.295 as a worst-case price objective for the near term. That number comes from taking the lower b-c pairing shown. Alternatively, it would take a print today at 40.780 to turn the lesser charts bullish once again.
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With the Gold Bugs Index scraping up against some bullish targets we’ve been using for a while, it’s time to take a fresh look. Check out today’s HUI tout if you want to have your bullish imagination stretched!
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We’ll treat this selling with respect, since it should not have kicked in before the futures reached a middling Hidden Pivot resistance (unnoted here earlier) at 44.510. The actual high fell 14 cents shy of that mark, and so the pullback should be regarded as especially dangerous if it racks up a second bearish impulse leg today on the hourly chart. That would require a print below 41.455, and although it would be warning of more weakness to come, it could also create a buying opportunity at the as-yet-undetermined midpoint support of the corrective abcd. Want to learn how to do Hidden Pivot Analysis yourself, and to kiss your guru good-bye? Click here for information about the upcoming webinar in October.
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Now that was impressive! An earthquake, of all things, shakes the Big Apple yesterday as it hasn’t been shaken since 9/11, and Wall Street never even breaks stride. Early reports suggested that some denizens of the Bowery were fearful the city might be under attack again. They may have breathed a sigh or relief, however, when it became clear that the tremor was “only” a magnitude 5.8 earthquake, not a suitcase nuke. Before the Virginia-centered quake hit shortly after 2 p.m., a strong rally was already in progress from the night before, propelled by who-knows-what. The temblor had no discernible on the markets, but it rattled big cities up and down the Middle Atlantic coast. Breaking news pushed Hurricane Irene temporarily off the front page even as the mounting storm, with sustained winds above 90 mph, threatened to wreak havoc on the East Coast this weekend. Traders were unfazed by it all, however, and by day’s end the buying spree had become a runaway freight train, sending the Dow up 322 points. The mania steepened in the final hour, sellers evidently having realized that resistance was futile. » Read the full article
Only Crazies Believe It’s Over for Gold
by Rick Ackerman on August 25, 2011 3:46 am GMT · 60 comments
It seems like a terrible waste of energy to haul gold down by nearly $200, as has occurred this week, only to run it back up to new all-time highs next week. Or will it be different this time? Show of hands: How many of you think the POG will never, ever reach $2000 an ounce? That’s what we thought. Still, you can’t blame bulls for grumbling when DaBoyz decide to let the bottom drop out for a couple of days. And that’s exactly what they did, presumably because they had grown wary of chasing gold who-knows-how-high. And make no mistake, it is bulls who caused this week’s carnage, including the $112 selloff that occurred so swiftly yesterday. It’s not as though a bunch of sellers panicked and dashed for the exit all at once, trampling the strong hands who have sponsored gold’s rise from $250 an ounce. No, it was a case of buyers simply going AWOL – for just a short while, we are pretty confident. There was no conspiratorial meeting in a smoke-filled room to arrange all of this, just a tacit consensus that gold was ready for a breather before it launches its inevitable assault on $2000. » Read the full article