September 2011

A previous peak, somewhat obscure, at 1851.50 recorded a week ago remains the number for bulls to beat if Friday’s encouraging turnaround is to develop legs.  Assuming the pullback low at 1807.20 made Friday afternoon holds, my immediate upside target would be 1845.90, a Hidden Pivot that will be subject to possible resistance at 1826.60, its ‘p’ sibling.  (30-minute, A=1786.30 at 9:30 a.m. Friday). This rally pattern is not suitable for a camouflage entry, however, because of the sloppiness of point ‘C’, a three-bar affair on the 30-minute chart.  You will therefore have to improvise an entry strategy, but there are numerous small peaks made on the way down last Wednesday and Thursday that could serve nicely to set up A-B impulse legs with subtle ‘X’ entry points. _______UPDATE (11:42 a.m. EDT):  The rally pattern shown in the chart exceeded the 1826.60 ‘p’ midpoint but failed to achieve its ‘D’ sibling at 1845.90. Instead, the futures have been beaten back toward Monday’s lows near 1766 by the ostensibly deflationary “austerity” speech given by our ex-campus radical President. The so-far low has been 1771.00, just 0.50 from the 1771.50 target drum-rolled and spotlighted here in several touts last week. Meanwhile, we shouldn’t fear Obama’s latest idea, since, like every other leftist, politics-of-envy budgeting scheme he keeps proposing over and over and over again, it has zero chance of mustering a House majority. Want to learn how to nail swing highs and lows precisely, and to manage trade risk yourself? Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar on October 5-6 and a $50 discount.

By exceeding the 1771.50 target we were using as a minimum downside objective, the futures have signaled still more weakness ahead.  Barring a very unlikely pop today to 1851.50, which would put bulls solidly back in charge, we can expect the downtrend to come increasingly under the sway of lows near 1700 made in late August.  They will turn magnetic if the December contract falls below 1750, exerting more influence, probably, than any Hidden Pivot support that I might offer.  The futures will have a chance to turn from just above that price today because there’s a minor hidden support at 1753.90, but if it fails, you should brace for more selling. _______ UPDATE: (12:17 p.m. EDT):  Gold has pulled back from the brink as has been its wont for the last month, rallying sharply without having reached the 1753.90 correction target I’d flagged. This is ever-so-mildly bullish for the longer term, but the December contract will still need to push above 1851.50 to get out of limbo and revitalize the still-healthy long-term bull market.