We found quite a few signs to affirm the bullish case during last Wednesday's tutorial session, but to highlight just one of them, notice in the accompanying chart how each of the last three upthrusts created a new impulse leg. This is the way healthy bull trends are supposed to move, and the Dollar Index's daily chart appears to be doing so with little effort. Pushing past last winter's highs may require a running start or two over the next few weeks, but the evidence up to this point strongly implies that new recovery highs lie in the offing. If this is a true bull market in its infancy, the uptrend should be able to exceed last November's peak at 81.44 without correcting the thrust from July's 73.42 low.
Monday, October 10, 2011
Feisty Dollar
– Posted in: Free Rick's PicksThe dollar's strength has been weighing down everything but T-Bonds, so I've provided a chart with today's DXY tout that shows why we shouldn't expect the uptrend to die below 80. I've also spelled out what it would take for the Dollar Index to demonstrate conclusively that a bull market is under way.
GCZ11 – December Gold (Last:1642.20)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksFriday's dismal action generated a downside target at 1590.00, subject to midpoint support at 1629.00. That Hidden Pivot was breached on Friday by 1.40, but we shouldn't treat it too seriously because the short-term trend will become a jump ball when trading resumes Sunday night. A larger corrective pattern points as low as 1464.70, a number given here previously that is tied to a 1573.10 midpoint support. That's my minimum downside objective if Gold gets hammered again today. Alternatively, 1704.90 is still the number for bulls to beat if they want to get back in the game. Night owls can try bottom-fishing the pattern highlighted at the right-hand edge of the chart, provided it plays out to a usable 'p' midpoint or 'D' target.
ESZ11 – December Mini S&P (Last:1155.75)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksTake a look at two months' worth of gratuitous violence on the hourly chart if you think it's going to be easy to predict when stocks will lurch, presumably with even more violence, from their agonizing holding pattern. I can say no more right now than that Friday's price action created a bullish impulse leg that could produce a follow-through to as high as 1189.50 before this short squeeze runs out of fuel. It's not quite an even-odds bet yet, though, since the presumptive C-D leg has thus far fallen a few points shy of the 1167.25 midpoint resistance (A=1129.50 on 10/6, and B=1173.75). In any event, the target will remain valid until such time as the point 'C' low of the pattern that produced it, 1144.75, is breached to the downside.
SIZ11 – December Silver (Last:31.230)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksThe peak of Friday's thrust missed exceeding our bullish trigger at 32.880 by three cents before the futures relapsed into a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart to end the day. The pattern, shown in the chart (see inset), projects to as low as 29.545 short-term, provide the point 'c' shown remains intact. Sunday night owls would gain no special edge trying to bottom-fish, since the minor downtrend is coming off a failed (i.e, 'sausage') point 'B' top. However, a 'camo' attempt to get long would be another matter, since the theoretical risk of entering at a minor, northbound point 'x' could probably be held to a few ticks. I've sketched out such a possibility in the chart.
